Mohicans markets：Gold Focus on Support Caution Volume Oil Prices Focus on a Breakthrough and Rebound to Stabilize

Key Data

Fundamentals Overview

On Tuesday August 23, spot gold tried to test 1740 resistance, but failed to stabilize, the current price is running around 1738, and need to pay attention to the market direction selection, spot silver narrow range, the current price is near 18.98, the first upside target focus on 19.08. Us crude held steady above 89.50 trying to push up to 92. The dollar index by the euro short - term pull impact, almost gave up all intraday gains, is now a slight rebound.

The Mohicans Markets strategy is for reference only and not as investment advice. Please read the terms of the statement at the end of the article carefully. The following strategy was updated at 18:30 on August 23, 2022, Beijing time.

Technical View

ONE · Technical Level · International Gold

1746-1748 Intra-day resistance

1740-1741 Eurasian disk resistance

1734 Europan wave support

1730 0.618 retreated, but the strength of support remains to be tested

1720-1723 midline support

1712 Points pulled higher ahead of Fed's July meeting

Technical analysis

Both the dollar and Treasury yields posted sharp gains, directly weighing on gold to near 1728 on Monday. Despite a slight rally in the U.S. session, Treasury yields are still hovering at elevated levels and there is still no sign of increasing positions, so gold may struggle to form an effective reversal for the time being. Specifically, the strength of 1732.5-1737.5 support interval may be weak, and the key is the 1730 threshold. However, the support of this threshold is based on technical indicators, which is easy to be breached by the volume market, so the specific strength needs to be verified by the market. The clear support is around 1720 and below 1720, which is the gold rally point for the July Fed decision and is expected to have a lot of stock.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 18:00 on August 22. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

TWO · Technical Level · Spot Silver

19.5 Bullish reduce but high stock, put slightly reduced and high stock, long target and resistance

19.25 Bullish increase, bearish decrease, long target

19 Bullish reduce, bearish reduced sharply, and resistance is diminished

18.7-18.75 Bullish increase, bearish decrease, support

18.5 Bullish reduce, sharply increased puts and large inventory, short targets

18.25-18.35 Bullish reduce  but more long target,bearish reduce sharply and less downside power

Technical analysis

Silver continued to follow gold down in Asia and Europe on Monday, then found strong support near 18.7, and finally rebounded to close the lower line.

Option order flow distribution, 19 above the main long new bets, and short exit, the market for the rebound of the bet increased. At present, silver price has broken below yesterday's support of 19.0, support near 18.94 is being tested, and may test 18.7-18.75, where call options are added and bearish funds are withdrawn; A break below, or a short stop at 18.64 to look at the 18.5 short target, where the bearish stock is large, then the downside strength at 18.25-18.35 diminishes and the midline support is near 18.2. Another rally above 19 would look to long targets 19.25 and 19.5, where 19.5 also has a large bearish stock and there is resistance.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 18:00 on August 23. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

THREE · Technical Level · US Crude Oil

94-95 Bullish increase, bearish decrease, long target range

93 Bullish increase greatly, a small increase in bearish, and a long first target

92 Bullish reduce slightly and a significant increase in bearish, key resistance

90 Bullish increase, bearish decrease, support

87.5-88 Bullish increase, bearish surge and bears dominate, short target zone

84 Bullish increase, puts increase sharply and bears dominate, short target

Technical analysis

Crude oil broke the downtrend channel upper edge resistance near 90-91 early this morning on the impact of Opec production cut news. In the near term, attention will be paid to whether crude oil can stabilize above 90-91. From the option order flow changes, many short bets are obvious action. Above the current price, there are some shorts coming in at 92 to create resistance, while the bulls are betting heavily on crude oil to continue to rise and see a target of long 93 if resistance is breached. 94-95 call options to enter the layout of the medium-term rebound trend. On the other hand, the lower 90 more short forces are comparable, and there are signs of short departure, expected to support oil prices. There are heavy bearish bets below, and a loss of 90 support could extend the downside momentum and put crude back in the downtrend channel, with bears heavily betting on the downside and targeting the 87.5-88 range. Oil prices have just broken through the upper edge resistance of the downtrend channel and have yet to form an effective uptrend, with stable support near 90 for further upside opportunities.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 18:00 on August 23. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

FOUR ·  Technical Level · EURUSD

1.01-1.02 Bullish increase, bearish decrease, long target

1.00-1.0050 bullish increase, bearish decrease, long target

0.9975 Bullish unchanged, bearish increase, resistance level

0.9950 Bullish increase, bearish increase sharply, key resistance

0.99 Bullish decrease, bearish increase sharply, short target

0.98-0.9850 Bullish increase, bearish increase sharply, short target

Technical Analysis

On Monday, EURUSD broke below parity and reached its first short target at 0.9950. It is now under pressure below this level. From the perspective of options changes, as Europe and the United States broke below parity, many puts above 1.00 took profits and left the market. Even if the level is broken, 0.9975 will also pose resistance to the upside. The main target for short positions below is still 0.99 first, followed by 0.98-0.9850. The large increase in the stock of put options in these two places does not exclude institutional handwriting. As for the call options, the main thing is to add positions above the 1.00 level. But the number is limited in comparison, if Europe and the United States can not regain stability at 1.00, it is expected to be difficult to trigger the return of bullish attractiveness.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 18:00 on August 23. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

FIVE · Technical Level · GBPUSD

1.19 Bullish increase, bearish increase, long target, resistance level

1.1850-1.1870 bullish increase, bearish equally decrease, breakout focus on further rally momentum

1.18-1.1820 bullish increase, bearish equal volume decrease, breakout focus on further rebound momentum

1.175 Bullish increase, bearish increase, key support

1.17 bullish unchanged, bearish slightly reduced but the stock is larger, short target

1.1650 Bullish unchanged, bearish unchanged but the stock is large, short target

Technical Analysis

On Monday, GBPUSD broke below the 1.18 support level in the US session and reached the 1.1750 short target without any problems. It is currently oscillating around that level. From the perspective of options changes, there is a lack of positive action from long and short positions, but there are long entries at 1.1750. It is expected to become a short term key support for the GBPUSD, but it needs to consider the large short stock. If it effectively breaks down, we will expect the GBPUSD to decline to extend with short targets below at 1.1650-1.17. On the other hand, it will first test the 1.8-1.82 resistance area if the pound rallies at 1.1750. There are a few shorts leaving this area, but bearish bets have not been completely abandoned. And with equal bullish and bearish stocks at 1.1820, there could be a long-short battle. A breakout would watch for further rebound momentum, with the next resistance at 1.1850.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 18:00 on August 23. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

SIX · Technical Level · AUDUSD

0.70 Bullish decrease but stock is large, bearish slightly increase, long target cum resistance

0.695 Bullish unchanged, bearish reduce but stock is large, resistance weaken

0.69 bullish unchanged, bearish slightly reduce but stock is large, resistance

0.685 Bullish decrease, bearish increase and short dominant, downside target

0.68 Bullish unchanged, bearish increase, downside strength strengthen

0.675 Bullish unchanged, bearish significantly reduce, support

0.67 Bullish unchanged, bearish sharply reduce, significant support

Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar surged higher and fell back on Monday due to a stronger dollar. Although there was a small rebound after today's opening, it was blocked at the first resistance at 0.69. 0.685will be the target for a retreat, where bearish options are added to the position. If it breaks down further, the short force may be strengthened around 0.68 and there is a possibility of hitting the support levels at 0.675 and 0.67. However, there was a large amount of bearish money leaving these two positions yesterday, which may weaken the momentum of the break down. If it stands again at 0.69, it may look to the upper resistance at 0.695 and 0.70. Among them, 0.70 has a large bullish stock and is also a long target.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 18:00 on August 23. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

Statement | Disclaimer

Disclaimer: The information contained in this material is for general advice only. It does not take into account your investment goals, financial situation or special needs. Mohicans Markets has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information as of the date of publication.   Mohicans Markets makes no warranties or representations regarding this material. The examples in this material are for illustration only. To the extent permitted by law, Mohicans Markets and its employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising in any way, including negligence, from any information provided or omitted from this material.The features of Mohicans Markets products, including applicable fees and charges, are outlined in the product disclosure statements available on the Mohicans Markets website and should be considered before deciding to deal with these products. Derivatives can be risky and losses can exceed your initial payment. Mohicans Markets recommends that you seek independent advice.

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