Mohicans markets：Market Awaits Non-farm Payroll Report

Key Data

Fundamentals overview

On Friday September 2, spot gold in the Asian session broke through the pivot point of 1697.55, and is currently approaching the first upward target to focus on 1705.86. Spot silver extended intraday gains, keeping an eye on resistance at 18.17. WTI crude oil continued the rebound trend, and the main resistance is 90.07. The US dollar index fell below the pivot point of 109.50, and the first support below is 109.18. EUR/USD is approaching parity with the first resistance concerned at 1.0011. USD/JPY remained above the $140 mark, with short-term resistance hard to find.

The Mohicans Markets strategy is for reference only and not as investment advice. Please read the terms of the statement at the end of the article carefully. The following strategy was updated at 16:30 on September 2, 2022, Beijing time.

Technical View

ONE · Technical Level · International Gold

1727-1728 Midline resistance

1720-1722 The boundary between long and short, it is possible to recover the upward momentum only by stepping firmly

1710  Days of Yangli

1704-1705 Asian-European resistance

1690-1695 Intraday support

1680 Key support during the year(long term)

Technical Analysis

Yesterday, gold fell to a short target near 1695, and the fall in US bond yields prompted gold to rebound slightly at the 1690 support. The put option above is expected to leave the market at a profit, slightly weakening the resistance of 1700, but both longs and shorts near the current price have entered the market more intensively, and the market may not have a clear direction for the trend of non-agricultural tonight.

1708.5 has a lot of short stocks, and if gold continues to rise, it may create opportunities for shorts to cover. In the medium and long term, 1718.5-1723.5 and 1748.5 have greater pressure on gold, the short stock has a clear advantage, and the bulls have little confidence in betting on a breakthrough.

On the other hand, there is a large stock of put options near 1698.5, and if gold goes down, it may intensify the bearish sentiment. At the same time, we also need to pay attention to the defense of the 1693.5 support level. The lower point has continued to enter the market for several consecutive days, and the broken position may expand the downward momentum. The short target is 1673.5.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on September 2. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

TWO · Technical Level · Spot Silver

18.54 -18.35 Strong resistance

18 Bullish increase greatly, bearish decrease slightly but the stock is large, the long-short boundary and the resistance level

17.7-17.8-17.9 Bullish increase greatly and the stock is large, bearish increase slightly, the long target

17.6 Bullish increase greatly, bearish slightly increase, support level

17.5 Support within days, but the strength is unknown

17 Bullish increase slightly, bearish increase greatly and the stock is large, the bearish target

16.75 Bullish unchanged, bearish increase sharply and the stock is large, bearish target

Technical Analysis

Silver fluctuated up yesterday, and there was no strong upward momentum, but at a point near the current price, a large number of call options suddenly bet, and the long stock is obviously dominant. Pay attention to whether an effective breakthrough can be formed in the future. 17.85, 17.95 and 18.05 all have substantial bullish inflows, while the bearish stock is minimal. The bulls also have a lot of bets at the resistance level of 18.15. In the case of a sudden increase in the strength of the bulls, it is necessary to be alert to the sudden rise of the market. But there are non-agricultural data tonight, which is expected to disturb the market, and the current fluctuation of silver is narrowing, and the trend has not yet formed a clear direction. The lower support level for silver is at 17.75, and the bearish target is around 17.15.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on September 2. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

THREE · Technical Level · US Crude Oil

97-98 Bullish increase and the stock is large, bearish increase slightly and there is stock, the long target

94-95 Bullish increase and large stock, bearish decrease slightly but stock large, long target

92 Bullish increase and the stock is large, bearish decrease sharply but stock is large, long target

90 Bullish increase and large stock, bearish decrease but stock, long target and resistance level

88-89 Bullish increase and the stock is large, bearish decrease greatly but there is stock, the long target and resistance

82-85 Bullish period is increasing and the stock is large, the bearish period is greatly reduced but there is stock, the support level

79-80 Bullish increase, bearish increase in equal amount and large stock, short target

Technical Analysis

The decline of crude oil once expanded on Thursday and achieved a good recovery near 86, which has become a strong key support. However, from the perspective of option betting, oil prices have to at least stand at the 90 mark before it is possible to resume sustained upward momentum. If it can stand firm, it is expected to test the resistance near 91 and 92 and the bull target.

Although the support near 86 and 85 below is relatively strong, the wide fluctuation itself is a trading risk, and you need to grasp your own position.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on September 2. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

FOUR ·  Technical Level · EURUSD

1.01 Bullish increase sharply, bearish decrease in equal volume and but the stock is large, long target and resistance

1.005 Bullish increase, bearish unchanged, long target

1.00 bullish increased sharply and the stock is large, bearish decrease but the stock is large, rally target and resistance

0.9975 Bullish unchanged, bearish decrease, resistance weaken

0.995 Bullish increase slightly, bearish increase and the stock is large, falling back target

0.99 Bullish increase, bearish increase, short target and support

0.98-0.9825 Bullish decrease slightly, bearish increase and the stock is large, secondary short target

Technical Analysis

The U.S. employment data and economic data on Thursday were good expectations, and the dollar strengthened, driving Europe and the United States lower. But it still located within the oscillator range of 0.99-1.01. The order flow distribution shows that within the oscillator range, calls added bets, puts left the market mainly, and funds bet more on the range rebound market, where 0.9975 resistance has weakened, if it can stand, it may test the parity rally target. This is followed by long targets of 1.005 and 1.01. On the downside, that is, in the range 0.99-0.995, short positions are starting to make significant inroads, where 0.995 will be the retreat target, if it broken, it may look to the bottom of the range and the short target 0.99, also a position closely watched by the long side. If the bottom is lost, the market may be dominated by shorts and may fall to the next short target of 0.98-0.9825.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on September 2. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

FIVE · Technical Level · GBPUSD

1.17-1.172 Bullish increase, bearish increase and the stock is large, long target and resistance

1.165 Bullish increase slightly, bearish increase slightly and the stock is large, resistance

1.16-1.162 Bullish increase sharply, bearish increase and the stock is large, rebound target and resistance

1.15 Bullish increase, bearish increase, falling back target and support

1.145 Bullish increase sharply, bearish increase, short target and support

1.14 Bullish unchanged, bearish increase and and the stock is large, next short target

Technical Analysis

GBPUSD moved broadly following the dollar on Thursday, with an accelerated decline in the stronger-than-expected US manufacturing PMI data, once touching yesterdays short target of 1.15. After that, the end of the day was supported with a small rebound, and today's opening maintained a narrow range of oscillation.

From the options distribution, long and short concentrated on both ends of the bet, 1.15-1.16 range within the long and short almost no action, it can be seen that the funds more bet on the breakthrough market. The upper edge of the range at 1.16-1.162 is fiercely contested by both long and short, andit may be the target for the rally; if it breaks, it may look to the next long target at 1.17-1.172. However, the middle position at 1.165 is intensively bet by bearish funds, and there is some resistance.

The lower edge of the range at 1.15 added a number of bullish options, which will be the fall target and support; if broken below the range, it may look to the short target 1.145 and 1.14, of which 1.145 may have greater support.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on September 2. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

SIX · Technical Level · AUDUSD

0.71 Bullish decrease slightly but the stock is large, bearish unchanged, long target

0.7 Bullish increase and the stock is large, bearish unchanged, long target

0.69 Bullish decrease slightly, bearish decrease but the stock is large, still being key resistance

0.675-0.68 Bullish increased, bearish decrease sharply but the stock is large, short-term support interval

0.665 Bullish unchanged, bearish increase slightly and the stock is large, short target

Technical Analysis

Although oil prices have risen, the overall performance of commodity markets remains poor. The Australian dollar is expected to gain support in the short term at 0.675-0.68, but the large stock of 0.69 puts is still a relatively difficult resistance to break through intraday. Only after stepping on 0.69 will there be hope of testing multiple long targets above. If the dollar continues to strengthen and depress the Aussie back below 0.675, it could test the short target of 0.665 or even form a new bottom.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on September 2. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

Statement | Disclaimer

Disclaimer: The information contained in this material is for general advice only. It does not take into account your investment goals, financial situation or special needs. Mohicans Markets has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information as of the date of publication. Mohicans Markets makes no warranties or representations regarding this material. The examples in this material are for illustration only. To the extent permitted by law, Mohicans Markets and its employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising in any way, including negligence, from any information provided or omitted from this material.The features of Mohicans Markets products, including applicable fees and charges, are outlined in the product disclosure statements available on the Mohicans Markets website and should be considered before deciding to deal with these products. Derivatives can be risky and losses can exceed your initial payment. Mohicans Markets recommends that you seek independent advice.

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