Mohicans markets： Focus on the European energy crisis Pay attention to the European Central Bank developments

Key Data

Market Overview

Fundamentals overview

On Monday September 5, Spot gold remained range-bound in Asian trading, and is currently trading around 1711.93. The market may then face a choice of direction, the upside focus on resistance 1712.69. Spot silver stabilized above the 18 mark, the primary upside target to 18.17. WTI crude oil intra-day gains expanded to 2%, the first resistance focus on 89.47. The dollar index high oscillation, the current price near the resistance to pay attention to 110.08, after the breakthrough of short-term resistance is difficult to find. The euro against the dollar once tested the first support 0.9914, after the break down need to pay attention to support 0.9903. The pound against the dollar concern support 1.1463. The dollar against the yen pay attention to resistance 140.64.

The Mohicans Markets strategy is for reference only and not as investment advice. Please read the terms of the statement at the end of the article carefully. The following strategy was updated at 16:30 on September 5, 2022, Beijing time.

ONE · Technical Level · International Gold

1750 Bullish increase sharply, bearish increase and the stock is large, long target

1730 Bullish increase, bearish increase slightly but the long side prevails, long target

1720-1725 Bullish increase sharply, bearish increase and the stock is large, resistance range

1703, intra-day key support

1690-1695 Bullish unchanged, bearish increase sharply, support and short target

1675 -1680 Bullish unchanged, bearish increase, short target

Technical Analysis

Fridays non-farm payrolls data showed the labor market is cooling off and the unemployment rate is rising. This reduces the risk of further sharp rate hikes by the Fed and the pressure above gold eased. There is no clear bet on the direction of the options layout, with both long and short positions entering near the current price. The upper 1720-1725 range still poses strong resistance, but there are more call options betting on a breakout at 1730, with the long side targeting 1750. On the other hand, the short side below 1710 has a stock advantage, and may increase downside risk if it breaks down. 1695 is near support, while the put options stock is large and also a short side target. As the market continues to release signals of cooling inflation, the pace of Fed rate hikes will probably also gradually slow down, and the upside pressure on gold is gradually easing. But before the Fed ends the rate hike, gold is still difficult to get out of an effective breakthrough. Short-term need to pay attention to the test of resistance above, gold and the risk of short-covering.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on September 5. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

TWO · Technical Level · Spot Silver

18.25-18.3 Bullish unchanged, bearish decrease but the stock is large, resistance range

18.1 Bullish increased sharply, bearish increase slightly, long target

18 Bullish increase, bearish increase and the stock is large, long and short contention points

17.8 Bullish increase and the stock is large, bearish unchanged, support level

17.7 Bullish unchanged but the stock is large, bearish unchanged, support

17.6 Bullish unchanged but the stock is large, bearish increase, support

17.5 Bullish decrease, bearish increase, short target

Technical Analysis

Silver momentum is weak and has largely given back the gains from Fridays non-farm payrolls data. There was also no significant action in the options market, with a small number of longs entering above. The momentum of silver is showing signs of slowing down, above 18.2 call options stock is large, and near the long bets one after another. But the bearish options stock still prevails, the day needs to pay attention to the test of silver resistance to 18.2. The short stock advantage near 18.45-18.5 will constitute resistance to the silver rally, but from the long bets, the momentum to continue to break through is limited. Below the focus on 18 and 17.9, near the large stock of bullish options, is expected to constitute support for the silver trend.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on September 5. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

THREE · Technical Level · US Crude Oil

93.5 Bullish decrease slightly but the stock is large, bearish unchanged, strong resistance

92 Bullish decrease but the stock is large, bearish increase, second resistance

89-90 Bullish increase sharply, bearish decrease, rally target and resistance

88 Bullish increase, bearish decrease, support

87 Bullish increase, bearish increase, weak support

85 Bullish increase, bearish increase sharply, short target and key support

Technical Analysis

Oil prices are still fluctuating below strong resistance at 91 and are currently stabilizing above a large support range of 85-88 in Asian trading. The news of the indefinite closure of the “Nord Stream-1” natural gas pipeline over the weekend gave a brief boost to oil prices. However, there is still the OPEC General Assembly during the day, so watch out for news fluctuations. Until then short term money will prevail.

From the options movement, 86.5-87 is the key level for short term long-short contention. Above this, looking for options to take small positions, with long forces mainly concentrated between 88-90, with 90 becoming short term resistance. If prices fall back below 86.5, the short term will return to short dominance. The first short target is located at 85, where is also the key support for oil prices in the medium term.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on September 5. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

FOUR ·  Technical Level · EURUSD

1-1.0025 Bullish increase and the stock is large, the bearish increase in the same amount and the stock is large, the long and short fight for the range

0.995 Bullish increase, bearish increase and large stock, rebound target and resistance

0.99-0.9925 Bullish slightly decreased, bearish increased significantly and the stock is large, resistance range

0.985 Bullish unchanged, bearish increase, downside target

0.98 Bullish unchanged, bearish increase and large stock, short target

0.97 Bullish remains unchanged, bearish decreases and the stock is large, an important support

Technical Analysis

The trend of the euro followed the dollar on Friday. The Asian market continued to rise and once broke through the parity target. Later, it was stimulated by the news of Russia's indefinite “death”, and it fell rapidly. It continued to decline at the opening today and has now fallen below the previous short target of 0.99.

In terms of options distribution, the shorts continued to increase their positions below the parity. Among them, 0.99-0.9925 put the most new bets on bearish funds, which will be a strong resistance range; the downside target is seen at 0.985, and if it falls further below, it may look towards the short target of 0.98; This level may provide important support as the bears saw a large number of exits at 0.97 for the first time after the continuous entry.

Looking at the upward direction, long funds have entered the market continuously at 0.995-1.025, betting on a rebound in Europe and the United States; 0.995 will be the rebound target, and then both long and short sides will add a lot of bets around 1-1.0025 at the same time, and the long and short competition is fierce.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on September 5th. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

FIVE · Technical Level · GBPUSD

1.16 Bullish increase, bearish increase and large stock, long target and resistance

1.157 Bullish increase, bearish increase, bulls target

1.15-1.152 Bullish increase, bearish increase, rebound target and resistance

1.145 Bullish unchanged, bearish reduced, downside action weakened

1.14 Bullish remains unchanged, bearish increases and the stock is large, the fall target and support

1.135 Bullish unchanged, bearish increase, bears target

Technical Analysis

The volatility of the pound and the United States began to expand after the European session on Friday, and fell after the US session, and fell below the previous fall target of 1.15, and it still continues the decline. In terms of option distribution, shorts are active at both ends, but longs only move above 1.15, and they basically enter the market; Although the downward momentum around 1.145 has weakened, the pound has fallen below this position and is expected to hit 1.14. The bearish capital here is not only stacked, but also has new bets, so it will be the target of the pullback; then the short target will be at 1.135. In the upward direction, the long and short sides in the range of 1.15-1.16 added new bets at the same time, and the contention is strong. The rebound target will be located at 1.15-1.152, and there is certain resistance. If it breaks above, it may look to the long target of 1.157 and 1.16.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on September 5th. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

SIX · Technical Level · AUDUSD

0.70 Bullish increase, bearish decrease, bulls target

0.6975 Bullish increase, bearish slight increase, resistance level

0.6950 Bullish increase, bearish unchanged but large stock, resistance level

0.6850 Bullish reduction, bearish decrease sharply, key resistance level

0.6750 Bullish unchanged, bearish increase, bear target

Technical Analysis

The U.S. non-farm payrolls data released last Friday, the unemployment rate and the employment participation rate rose, to some extent eased concerns about the labor market overheating. The better-than-expected number of new jobs also played down recession fears. In the early stage, there was a demand for profit-taking, and the non-US dollar rebounded. The Australian dollar against the US dollar also tested 0.6850 upwards, but failed to break through effectively, and almost wiped out the gains in late trading.

From the perspective of options changes, the call and put options at 0.6850 have decreased simultaneously, and the market's attention has declined. It is expected to constitute the first resistance level in the day. Breaking through this level, the next resistance will be 0.69. The stock of put options is prominent here and is expected to suppress the rally. On the other hand, the bears focus on 0.6750. Considering that there are put options at 0.6725 at the same time, the bears seem to be divided. It is expected that this range is expected to provide support, but after the break, the target may be further down to 0.6650.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on September 5th. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

Statement | Disclaimer

Disclaimer: The information contained in this material is for general advice only. It does not take into account your investment goals, financial situation or special needs. Mohicans Markets has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information as of the date of publication. Mohicans Markets makes no warranties or representations regarding this material. The examples in this material are for illustration only. To the extent permitted by law, Mohicans Markets and its employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising in any way, including negligence, from any information provided or omitted from this material.The features of Mohicans Markets products, including applicable fees and charges, are outlined in the product disclosure statements available on the Mohicans Markets website and should be considered before deciding to deal with these products. Derivatives can be risky and losses can exceed your initial payment. Mohicans Markets recommends that you seek independent advice.

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