Mohicans markets：Focus on the European Central Bank Interest Rate Resolution

Key Data

Fundamentals overview

Spot gold extended its rally during the Asian and European sessions on Thursday, September 8, as the dollar index paused on its upward trajectory, limiting gold price declines. Cautious investors await the new ECB interest rate resolution and the Fed Chairman Powells upcoming comments later in the day. At 15:06 GMT, spot gold rose 0.26% to $1722.43 per ounce; COMEX futures gold main contract $1733.5 per ounce; the dollar index moved up 0.09% to 109.655.

The Mohicans Markets strategy is for reference only and not as investment advice. Please read the terms of the statement at the end of the article carefully. The following strategy was updated at 16:30 on September 8, 2022, Beijing time.

Technical View

ONE · Technical Level · International Gold

1750 Bullish increase sharply, bearish decrease, resistance and long target

1740 Bullish increase, bearish decrease, long target

1720-1725 Bullish increase, bearish increase, resistance range

1710 Bullish increase, bearish increase, key support

1695-1700 Bullish decrease, bearish decrease, break alert for downside expansion

1675 Bullish unchanged, bearish increase sharply, short target

Technical Analysis

Gold rallied to touch 1720 as the Fed officials spoke to highlight the increased risk of recession yesterday. options bulls are actively laying out the upside move, but there was a significant weakening of short forces at the end of the day, with some shorts betting on gold prices to fall back below.

The upper 1719-1724 is the resistance area. At the same time, 1749 to gold prices constitute strong resistance, the current more bullish options bet on a breakout, above there are long bets on the medium-term upside trend. However, the current gold is still in the downward channel, has not yet formed an effective breakthrough.

Intraday key support in 1709, below also need to pay attention to 1694-1769 key points, there are a lot of call options into the field, but the short still has the stock advantage, after the breakthrough it needs to be vigilant to expand the downward momentum, and the short target is in 1674.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on September 8. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

TWO · Technical level · Spot silver

18.9 Strong resistance

18.54, Bullish increase, bearish decrease, long target strong resistance

18.3 Bullish decrease, bearish decrease, first support level

18 Bullish increase, bearish unchanged but the stock is large, key intra-day support

17.85 Support

17.5 Key support

Technical Analysis

The ratio between gold and silver is bouncing around 92.3 support and is expected to rally further if it can break 95. While gold and silver may continue to be under pressure to the downside, and silver will fall more than gold. Silver tested 17.85 support in Asian session but held steady. A break below that level could re-test the previous low area around 17.5, which was one of the short targets for options bets, followed by 17.4. However, options changes suggest that 18.05-18.1 is a contested area for both the long and short sides. If silver fails to regain stability at that level, investors should be wary of the risk of renewed pressure to the downside.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on September 8. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

THREE · Technical Level · US Crude Oil

87 Bullish increase, bearish decrease, rally target

86 Bullish decrease, bearish decrease but the stock is large, resistance

85 Bullish increase, bearish equally decrease, resistance

83 Bullish increase, bearish increase, resistance

81 Bullish increase slightly, bearish increase sharply, short target

80 Bullish increase, bearish increase sharply, short target

78 Bullish increase, bearish decrease, support

Technical Analysis

On Wednesday, WTI crude oil rebounded after gaining support at 85 in the Asian session and failed to break through the 88 resistance level. And in the U.S. market, it quickly broke the 85 support and successfully reached the 82 target level. The daily closing large negative line, and people need to guard against the risk of continued retreat. If the downside action does not ease, there is a possibility of looking down at the second target of the short.

In terms of options changes, short bets continue to ramp up between 80-82 after WTI crude oil broke below 86, constituting a new template range. But on the other hand, call options are intensively adding to positions in 82-87, so the first concern for the day is the defense of the 82 support level. If the level can be held, the possibility of another major drop in oil prices is low. The second is to focus on the 83 resistance level of suppression, where puts and calls options simultaneous positions. A break above this level would mean that short-term rally momentum prevails. Oil prices have the momentum to rally further, with further resistance seen at 84-84.5. Given that stocks of puts are higher below 87. Therefore, oil prices are expected to remain under short squeeze until they regain 87.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on September 8. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

FOUR · Technical level · EUR/USD

1.01 Bullish is reduced, bearish is greatly reduced but the stock is large, the bullish target and resistance

1.0075 Bullish increase, bearish unchanged, bulls target

1.0025 Bullish decrease, bearish unchanged, resistance level

1.00 Bullish increase and large stock, bearish decrease and large stock, rebound target and resistance

0.995 Bullish is reduced, bearish is reduced and the stock is large, the support has weakened

0.99-0.9925 Bullish increase, bearish increase and large stock, short target

Technical Analysis

After the opening of the US market on Wednesday, affected by the weakening of the US dollar, Europe and the United States rebounded from the bottom near 0.99 to the parity level of the bulls yesterday, and then fell into a narrow range near the parity due to strong resistance.

In terms of options distribution, there are many bears leaving the market, especially around 1.01, which may be worried about the risk of the European Central Bank raising interest rates tonight, and the bulls are still focusing on adding new bets above parity. At present, Europe and the United States have reached near the top of yesterday's volatile range, and the par position is where long-term funds have clearly entered the market, which will be the rebound target. If it can break above, Europe and the United States may look to the next range of 1.00-1.01, of which 1.0025 There is some resistance, and the bulls will target 1.0075 and 1.01 in that order.

On the downside, 0.995 will be the support for the fall, but the support force has weakened; then the 0.99-0.9925 short chips are relatively dense and will be the short target for the fall.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on September 8th. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

FIVE · Technical Level · GBPUSD

1.165-1.167 Bullish increase, bearish decrease but large stock, resistance zone

1.16 Bullish increase, bearish decrease but the stock is large, long target and resistance

1.155 Bullish increase, bearish increase, rebound target and resistance

1.15 Bullish increase, bearish increase, first support

1.145 Bullish bullish, bearish decrease, fall target and support

1.14-1.1420 Bullish increase, bearish decrease but the stock is large, short target and support

Technical Analysis

The trend of the pound and the United States remained volatile on Wednesday. It fell to a new low in the European session, but failed to fall below 1.14. Later, the US session was affected by the weakening of the US dollar, erasing all losses and closing up slightly, now hovering around 1.15.

In terms of option distribution, the shorts are concentrated in the wide range of 1.145-1.1570 to increase their positions, and compete with the longs at 1.15 and 1.155, of which 1.15 will be the first support for the fall. A break below could lead to a fallback target of 1.145 and a bearish target of 1.14, both of which are expected to be support given the signs of put options exiting.

On the upside, 1.155 will be the rebound target, and there is resistance. If it breaks through, it will further test the long target of 1.16 and 1.165.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on September 8th. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

SIX · Technical Level · AUDUSD

0.685-0.6875 Bullish increase, bearish decrease, strong resistance

0.68 Bullish increase, bearish decrease, rebound 2nd resistance and resistance

0.6775 Bullish increase, bearish decrease, rebound first target

0.67 Bullish increase, bearish decrease, first support

0.6675 Bullish increase, bearish increase, short-term support

0.665 Bullish unchanged, bearish unchanged, short second target and support

Technical Analysis

Australia and the United States rebounded to 0.6775 yesterday and fell back. From the point of view of option betting, the call options here increased slightly, which is the first target of the rebound. Stabilization is expected to see the second target of the rebound at 0.68. 0.685-0.6875 is still a strong rebound resistance. If the U.S. dollar strengthens again, Australia and the United States are expected to test the 0.67 support again. The support here is not very strong. The bottom is still dominated by put options, with short-term support at 0.6675, and 0.665, which is a concentrated bet on stock options.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on September 8th. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

Statement | Disclaimer

Disclaimer: The information contained in this material is for general advice only. It does not take into account your investment goals, financial situation or special needs. Mohicans Markets has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information as of the date of publication. Mohicans Markets makes no warranties or representations regarding this material. The examples in this material are for illustration only. To the extent permitted by law, Mohicans Markets and its employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising in any way, including negligence, from any information provided or omitted from this material.The features of Mohicans Markets products, including applicable fees and charges, are outlined in the product disclosure statements available on the Mohicans Markets website and should be considered before deciding to deal with these products. Derivatives can be risky and losses can exceed your initial payment. Mohicans Markets recommends that you seek independent advice.

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