Mohicans markets：Focus on Fed decision this week

Reminder: This article involves the technical analysis of 6 varieties of spot gold, spot silver, U.S. crude oil, Europe and the United States, GBPUSD, Australia and the United States. Starting from the distribution of market chips, the change data of options positions published on the CME official website is superimposed on the average order flow change data of large brokers in the industry to more accurately mark the market trading sentiment in important price ranges.

The order flow mainly refers to the following Oder Book data, which is updated every 20 minutes, taking XAUUSD international gold as an example:

The opinions and strategies provided in this article are for reference only. The data are all from large brokers. Please check them according to your needs. They are not investment suggestions. Please read the statement terms at the end of the article carefully.

Key date

Fundamentals Overview

On Monday, September 19, spot gold in the Asian session fell, falling below the pivot point of 1670.78, but found some support at 1658.65; Spot silver rose and fell, and rebounded slightly after testing the pivot point at 19.26; WTI crude oil approached the 84 mark, and the primary support was 81.33; The US dollar index rose above the long-short turning point of 109.77 and stood at the 110 mark, with the first upward target looking at 110.24.

The Mohicans Markets strategy is for reference only and not as investment advice. Please read the terms of the statement at the end of the article carefully. The following strategy was updated at 15:30 on September 19, 2022, Beijing time.

Technical Point of View

Changes in CME Group's options layout (Futures prices in October):

1700 Bullish increase sharply, bearish increase and large stock, strong resistance

1695 Bullish sharp increase, bearish unchanged, resistance level

1680 Bullish increase and large stock, bearish increase, key resistance

1675 Bullish increase, bearish increase and large stock, resistance level

1660 Bullish increase, bearish increase and large stock, short-term short-term short-term target and support

1650 Bullish increase, bearish decrease sharply, first target and support for bears

1630 Bullish unchanged, bearish increase, short second target

Order flow key point labeling (spot price):

1708-1710 Strong resistance

1692-1993 Bears defensive position, breaking through and stabilization will weaken bears' confidence

1681 The starting and falling points of heavy volume, short-term competition for key positions

1671 The first support level, which will face downward pressure again.

1654-1757 Critical Support, Breaking down the alarm triggers a new round of downtrend

1643 Short target

Technical Analysis

Inflation expectations at the University of Michigan retreated on Friday and expectations for a 100 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve were downplayed, giving gold a chance for a brief recovery.

From the perspective of options, some funds above the current price of 1667 began to bet on a slight rebound, and 1681 became the first rebound resistance. The key resistance is at 1686. If it stabilizes, it may look to the long target of 1706. And once the price falls below 1667 again, the rhythm will return to bear dominance, which may trigger a new round of downward movement. The first target of the bears below is at 1656. But on the whole, the willingness of the bears to continue to bet down is not strong, and the volatility is expected to be limited.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on September 19. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

Changes in CME Group's options layout (Futures prices in December ):

19.75 Bullish increase, bearish decrease, resistance level

19.45-19.50 Bullish increase, bearish increase, resistance level

19.25 Bullish increase, bearish increase, key resistance

19 Bullish increase sharply, bearish decrease, strong support

18.50-18.55 Bullish decrease slightly, more bearish, bearish target

Order flow key point labeling (spot price):

Starting point after 19.89CPI, strong resistance

19.67 Secondary resistance

19.52 Short-term positive

19.2-19.3 Intra-day long and short demarcation, at this level, pay attention to the risk of continued downside

18.8-18.98 Support zone

18.3-18.5 Key support zone (bulls cost zone)

17.85-18 Ultimate support

Technical Analysis

The overall performance is better than gold, but it is still subject to the suppression of the daily trend line. From the perspective of options changes, 18.9 call options added 212 call options, becoming a key short-term support;

If it falls below, there is a risk of returning to the downside, and the key point below is in the long cost area of 18.4-18.45.

Above the current price, the key range for long and short bets is 19.55-19.6. If 19.6 can be stabilized again within the day, it will suppress the confidence of the bears.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on September 19. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

CME Group options layout changes:

90 Bullish increase, bearish increase, bulls target

87 Bullish increase, bearish increase, bulls target and fight for points

86 Bullish increase, bearish increase, first resistance level

84 Bullish increase, bearish increase sharply, first bear target

82 Bullish unchanged, bearish increase sharply, bearish target

80 Bullish increase, bearish increase sharply, bears target

The key points of the order flow are marked:

89 Strong Resistance

88 Resistance

86-86.4 First resistance

85.4 Short-term long-short competition (only for short-term)

84 The first support during the day, the broken position will look down near 82

82.13-82.46 Key support zone (bulls cost area)

Technical Analysis

Crude oil has been fluctuating in the 84-85 range recently, with bulls and bears betting on both sides of the 85 demarcation point, and the market has no clear direction.

84.6 is still a short-term long-short competition point, and the bulls are betting on the upside, but it is suppressed by the resistance of 85.6, and it is difficult to get out of the sharp upward trend in the short-term. If crude oil continues to rise, the long target is 86.6, but the long and short stocks are equivalent, which also constitutes a point of contention. Last week's high of 89.6 also saw more bulls enter, which is a secondary bull target.

If the bears have the upper hand, oil prices may test 83.6, a break below will see the 81.6 bullish cost zone, and the next bears target at 80.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on September 19. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

CME Group options layout changes (October futures prices)：

1.02 Bullish increase, bearish slightly decrease but stock dominant, long target, resistance

1.0150 Bullish increase, bearish increase but large inventory, resistance

1.0050 Bullish increase, bearish decrease, key resistance

1.00 Bullish decrease, bearish increase sharply, breaking down and turning into resistance

0.9950 Bullish unchanged, bearish increase sharply, short target

0.98-0.9850 Bullish unchanged, bearish decrease sharply, weakening downside action

Technical Analysis

Last week, EURUSD tested 0.9950 several times without breaking, and the second half of the week the overall oscillation between 0.9950-1.0040. From the options change, 1.0050 at the new 8 lots of put options, and the level up, the willingness to put options to increase positions is extremely weak, to call options options added mainly. Therefore, it is expected that 1.0050 will constitute a key resistance level, and only a break of this level is expected to attract long momentum.

On the other hand, 1 and 0.9950 at the put options are the main two positions added, is expected to constitute a short term short target; 0.98-0.9850 range put options reduced by 72 lots, or x indicates that the short short-term willingness to break further down.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on September 19. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

CME Group options layout changes：

1.16 Bullish increase, bearish increase, long target, resistance

1.1550-1.1570 Bullish increase, bearish decrease sharply but stock prevailing, resistance area

1.15 Bullish increase, bearish decrease, resistance

1.1450 Bullish increase, bearish decrease but large inventory, resistance

1.14 Bullish unchanged, bearish increase, short target

1.1350 Bullish unchanged, bearish increase, short target

1.1250 Bullish unchanged, bearish increase sharply, short target

Technical Analysis

On Friday, driven by fundamental pessimism, GBPUSD broke further below 1.1480, hitting a low of 1.1350 short target before falling into a range oscillation of 1.1350-1.1450. From the perspective of options changes, GBPUSD still faces downside risks, with some calls increasing only above 1.1450, while below that level is still dominated by puts adding positions, so if it fails to regain stability at 1.1450, GBPUSD still faces downside risks to 1.1350, or even 1.1250.

On the other hand, if it regains 1.1450, it is expected to ease the downside momentum and further rally targets up to 1.1550.

 Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on September 19. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

CME Group options layout changes：

0.685 Bullish unchanged, bearish decrease, long and short contention points

0.68 Bullish decrease, bearish decrease, long target

0.675 Bullish unchanged, bearish decrease, resistance

0.67 Bullish increase, bearish decrease, downside action expand

0.665 Bullish increase sharply, bearish increase, support

Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar remains in a state of shock today, with no significant movement in the options market.  AUDUSD is currently still suppressed by the averages, the short stock advantage at 0.75 may pose resistance to the AUDUSD upside, with long targets at 0.68. Larger short stocks around 0.67 may extend downside action. Intraday attention to 0.6650 support, below the weak long support, please be wary of downside risk.

 Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on September 19. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

Statement | Disclaimer

Disclaimer: The information contained in this material is for general advice only. It does not take into account your investment goals, financial situation or special needs. We have made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information as of the date of publication. MHMarkets makes no warranties or representations about this material. The examples in this material are for illustration only. To the extent permitted by law, MHMarkets and its employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising in any way, including negligence, from any information provided or omitted from this material. The features of MHMarkets products, including applicable fees and charges, are outlined in the product disclosure statements available on the MHMarkets website. Derivatives can be risky and losses can exceed your initial payment. MHMarkets recommends that you seek independent advice.

Mohicans Markets, (Abbreviation: MHMarkets or MHM, Chinese name: Maihui), Australian Financial Services License No. 001296777.