Mohicans markets：Focus on Economic Data Against the Backdrop of Rising Economic Risks

☆15:00 ECB Vice President Quindos delivered a speech; then at 16:00 ECB Governing Council Kazaks gave a speech; 23:00 ECB Governing Council Nagel gave a speech. Investors can keep an eye on the views of various officials on expectations for the ECB's October and subsequent rate hikes, inflation trends, expectations for peak policy rates and the outlook for the euro zone economy.

☆23:00 Swiss National Bank Governor Jordan delivered a speech. Investors can pay attention to whether his speech will have further impact on the Swiss franc.

☆To be determined Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, Zaporozhye regions will hold a referendum on joining Russia from 23rd to 27th. Medvedev, vice-president of the Russian Federation Security Council, said any Russian weapons, including strategic nuclear weapons and new types of weapons, can be used to defend new Russian territories.

☆ To be determined  British Chancellor of the Exchequer Quatten issued a financial statement. Foreign media said that Quatten will provide more details on the British government's plan to promote economic growth, which may be equivalent to more than 150 billion pounds of stimulus plan.

☆23rd, Japan's Tokyo Stock Exchange will be closed for one day due to the autumnal equinox.

☆At 2:00 on the 23rd, Fed Chairman Powell delivered an opening speech at the event “Federal Reserve Listening: Transitioning to a Post-pandemic Economy”;

☆Then at 2:05, Fed Vice Chairman Brainard and Fed Governor Bowman respectively hosted dialogues with leaders of several industry organizations. Investors can pay attention to the forecasts of several Fed officials on the U.S. economic outlook, as well as their views on the trend of inflation and the federal funds rate, and even the Fed's movements at the remaining two FOMC meetings this year.

Global View - Mainstream Market

On September 22, Thursday, Beijing time, spot gold fluctuated in the range of US$30, and finally closed down 0.14% at US$1,671.44 per ounce; spot silver erased all intraday gains and finally closed down 0.12% at US$19.57 per ounce. ounce. The US dollar index fell slightly, but held steady above the 111 mark, and finally closed down 0.09% at 111.29; The yield on the 10-year U.S. bond reached a high of 3.7%, continuing to hit a new high since 2011; the yield on the two-year U.S. bond once rose to 4.163%, a new high in 15 years; the yield on the 30-year U.S. bond once rose 3.654%, a new high since 2014. The gap between two-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields widened to 57.80 basis points at one point, the widest since June 2000.

In terms of crude oil, WTI crude oil finished higher and fell, and finally closed up 0.57% at US$83.49 per barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed up 0.51% at US$90.35 per barrel. US stocks closed, the Dow closed down 0.35%, the Nasdaq closed down 1.37%, and the S&P 500 closed down 0.84%. Tesla fell about 4% after recalling nearly 1.1 million U.S. vehicles due to faulty windows; Ctrip rose about 5%.  European stocks closed down across the board, Germany's DAX index closed down 1.84%, the UK's FTSE 100 index closed down 1.08%, France's CAC40 index closed down 1.87%, Spain's IBEX35 index closed down 1.27%, Italy's FTSE index closed down 1.07%, Europe The Stoxx 50 closed down 1.85%.

Precious metals and energy market related information

Precious metals

Beijing time on September 23, Friday, this trading day focused on the initial value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI in September, and at 23:55 Fed Vice Chairman Brainard delivered a speech.

Gold prices (XAU/USD) remained around $1660 as bears cheered against the dollar and risk sentiment in the Asian session on Thursday. Nonetheless, hawkish actions by the Federal Reserve and fresh geopolitical concerns related to Russia are the latest catalysts to affect metals prices recently.

Next, the direction of gold prices depends on the actions of central bankers and secondary data from the United States.

Crude Oil

On Friday, September 23, Beijing time, please notice：

During the day, please focus on the U.S. Markit Manufacturing PMI preliminary value in September, and the Fed Vice Chairman Brainard will give a speech at 23:55.

Bullish factors affecting oil prices

【Russia Says Evidence Suggests U.S. Biological Lab in Ukraine Has Military Purpose】

【Hungarian PM says EU Should Lift Sanctions Against Russia】

【Russian Foreign Ministry Announces 87 Canadian Citizens Banned From Entering the Country】

【Ukraine‘s 4 Regional Referendums Begin in Russia’s Far East Kamchatka Region】

Bearish factors affecting oil prices

【The probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 75 basis points in November is 69.7%】

【The EU is considering new sanctions against Russia, including a cap on oil prices】

【U.S. stocks closed lower for the third straight session】

【U.S. labor market still shows resilience, but recession signals are getting stronger】【Petrobras again announces lower home gas prices】

Currency Market Related Information

Currency Market

On Friday, September 23, Beijing time, during the day please focus on: 

The ECB Vice President Kim Doss will gives a speech and the Fed Vice Chairman Brainard will deliver a speech.

According to CME “Fed Watch”: the probability of the Fed raising rates in November by 50 basis points in the 3.50%-3.75% range is 30.3%, the probability of raising rates by 75 basis points is 69.7%, and the probability of raising rates by 100 basis points is 0%; the cumulative probability of raising rates by 100 basis points in December is 30.2%, the cumulative probability of raising rates by 125 basis points is 69.6%, and the cumulative probability of raising rates by 150 basis points is 0.2%. The probability of a 125 basis point rate hike is 69.6%, and the cumulative probability of a 150 basis point rate hike is 0.2%.

The dollar has been supported by demand for safe-haven assets after Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the call-up of reservists to fight in Ukraine on Wednesday. The dollar index edged down on Thursday, 111.28.

The dollar closed down 1.14% against the yen at 142.39 on Thursday, after the Japanese authorities intervened to hit a low of 140.31 against the yen, after reaching a new 24-year high of 145.9. The spread between the dollars intraday high and low against the yen was the largest since June 2016.

The pound closed 0.09% lower against the dollar at 1.1255 on Thursday, which was not far from a new 37-year low of 1.1213 set during the Asian trading session.

The euro fell to a multi-year low of 0.9812 against the dollar on Thursday, which was the lowest level since October 2002. The exchange rate then rebounded and finally closed down 0.01% at 0.9837. Eurozone economic clouds are still weighing on the euro.

Institutional Market View point

1. Danske Bank: If the Bank of Japan does not adjust its monetary policy, it may be difficult to prevent the yen from weakening again

2. Rabobank: intervention is unlikely to boost the yen, the three-month target for USDJPY is expected to be at 147

3. Societe Generale: Downside trend for GBPUSD will continue

4. NBC Financial Markets: The yen is expected to remain weak after Japans intervention in the currency market

5. Financial website Forexlive commented on Japans intervention in the currency market operations: USDJPY may have peaked in the short term, but do not rule out the possibility of another rise to 145 

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