Mohicans markets：MHM--European Market

Warm Prompt: The opinions and strategies provided in this article are for reference only. The data are all from large brokers. Please check them according to your needs and do not serve as any investment advice. Please read the statement terms at the end of the article carefully.

Market Review

On Monday, October 12, spot gold oscillated narrowly during the Asian session and is currently trading near $1,668 per ounce. After the Bank of England hinted to banks that it was ready to extend its bond purchase program, the British pound briefly surged higher; the dollar fell slightly from its nearly two-week high, providing support to gold prices, and investors need to watch for further fermentation of market sentiment and linkage reactions; however, the market expects that the minutes of the Fed meeting to be released this trading day may be hawkish, and the U.S. CPI data for September to be released this Thursday being expected to show U.S. high inflation. Perhaps it will strengthen the expectation that the Fed will raise interest rates sharply again at its November meeting, and gold bulls are still apprehensive.

During the Asian and European sessions, U.S. crude oil oscillated higher, once up more than 1% to $89.84 per barrel, currently trading near $89.64 per barrel. This trading day focus on OPEC monthly report, EIA monthly report and the Federal Reserve interest rate resolution, pay attention to the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting and central bank officials' speeches; Please pay attention to the API crude oil inventory series data performance, the data this week due to Monday Columbus Day delayed to Thursday morning Beijing time release; Please pay attention to Russia and Ukraine geopolitical situation related news.

Mohicans Markets strategy is for reference only and not as investment advice. Please read the terms of the statement at the end of the article carefully. The following strategy was updated at 15:30 on October 12, 2022, Beijing time.

Technical Analysis

CME Group options layout changes(December Futures price)：

1705-1710 Bullish increase, bearish increase slightly, bounce target, resistance

1700 Bullish increase sharply, bearish increase slightly, resistance

1690 Bullish increase, bearish increase, long and short compete, key resistance

1675 Bullish decrease, bearish increase sharply, the breakout level constitutes resistance suppression

1645-1650 Bullish unchanged, bearish decrease, moderate downside pressure

1625-1635 Bullish unchanged, bearish increase sharply, short target

Order flow key point labeling(spot price): 

1707 Resistance level

1689-1694 Top-bottom conversion range, rebound key resistance area

1677.5 The opening price of the K-line with significantly larger volume, the more critical resistance level in a day

1668 The first resistance level in a day, below this level indicates a weak rebound momentum

1660 Near last Monday's opening price, the 618 retracement, the current key support

1654-1657 Weak support range

1642-1644 End-September retracement of the upside, support range

1625 key level, during the 1633 may have a certain buffer role

Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on October 12. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

CME Group options layout changes：

20 Bullish increase sharply, bearish decrease slightly, long target, resistance

19.85 Bullish increase slightly, bearish increase slightly, resistance

19.40-19.60 Bullish increase sharply, bearish increase, long and short compete for range

119.25-19.30 Bullish increase, bearish increase slightly, resistance area

19 Bullish increase slightly, bearish decrease, support

18.90 Bullish unchanged, bearish increase, short target

Order flow key point labeling(spot price): 

20.5 Second highest rally point of Non-farm post, strong resistance

19.95 Short-term key support lost, turned into important resistance

19.75 First resistance in a day, long-short boundary

19.46 Trend support, loss of bullish sentiment destroyed

19-19.25 Rise zone on Monday, this round of rallies in the long cost area

Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on October 12. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

Order flow key point labeling(November Futures price)：

93 Bullish increase sharply, bearish decrease slightly, long target

91.5 Bullish decrease, bearish unchanged, resistance level

88-89.5 Bullish increase sharply, bearish increase sharply, long and short compete for range

86 Bullish decrease slightly, bearish increase sharply, the first short target

85 Bullish unchanged, bearish increase sharply, short target and support

Order flow key point labeling: 

91.7 Top-bottom conversion level, key resistance

90.35 Resistance level, break above indicates weaker downward sentiment in oil prices, focus on shocks or rebound

89.2 Key resistance in a day, long-short boundary

88 Important support, the action can expand under the vigilance of breaking the position

86 Important support

Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on October 12. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

Change of CME Group's option layout:

0.98 Bullish increased, bearish unchanged and large stock, next resistance level

0.975 Bullish increased, bearish slightly increased and large stock, resistance level

0.97 Bullish slightly decreased, bearish slightly decreased, but the stock was large, the first support

0.965 Bullish unchanged, bearish slightly increased, intraday support

0.9575-0.96 Bullish slightly increased, bearish significantly increased, and short sellers' first target and support level

0.955 Bullish unchanged, bearish unchanged, but the stock is large. The second target of short sellers is also the support of the middle line

Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on October 12. This policy is a daytime policy. Please pay attention to the policy release time.

Change of CME Group's option layout:

1.125 Bullish increased, bearish unchanged, long targets

11.12 Bullish unchanged, bearish decreased, rebound key resistance

11.11 Bullish unchanged, bearish decreased slightly, resistance

1.105 Bullish increased greatly, bearish decreased sightly, short term multiple targets and resistance

1.095 Bullish increased sightly, bearish unchanged, support level

1.09-1.092 Bullish increased, bearish decreased, key support

1.08 Bullish unchanged,bearish increased,short target

Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on October 12. This policy is a daytime policy. Please pay attention to the policy release time.

Warm prompt: This paper involves the key point marking and technical analysis of spot gold, spot silver and US crude oil. With reference to the change data of options positions published on CME's official website and the average order flow change data of large brokers in the industry, it accurately marks the market trading sentiment within the important price range from the market chip distribution.

The order flow mainly refers to the following Oder Book data updated every 20 minutes, taking XAUUSD international gold as an example: 

Disclaimer

Disclaimer: The information contained in this material is for general advice only. It does not take into account your investment goals, financial situation or special needs. We have made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information as of the date of publication. MHMarkets makes no warranties or representations about this material. The examples in this material are for illustration only. To the extent permitted by law, MHMarkets and its employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising in any way, including negligence, from any information provided or omitted from this material. The features of MHMarkets products, including applicable fees and charges, are outlined in the product disclosure statements available on the MHMarkets website. Derivatives can be risky and losses can exceed your initial payment. MHMarkets recommends that you seek independent advice.

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