Mohicans markets：MHM Today’s News

November 8, 2022--Fundamental Reminder

☆ TBD The U.S. House and Senate hold elections. This week's midterm elections and U.S. inflation data may lead to a weaker dollar. 

☆ 07:50 Bank of Japan publishes summary of reviewers' opinions.

☆ 16:15 Swiss central bank governor Jordan speaks.

☆ 18:00 Eurozone releases monthly rate of retail sales for September.

Market Overview

Global Market Trends Review

On Monday, November 7, as market risk appetite rose, the U.S. dollar index extended its decline, closing down 0.52% at 110.21. The euro returned to parity against the dollar; the pound rose above 1.13, 1.14 and 1.15 levels against the dollar, and the risk-sensitive Australian dollar erased all losses against the dollar during the Asian session; the dollar once forced the 146 mark against the yen.

U.S. bond yields moved higher again, with the 2-year U.S. bond yield rising above 4.73%, approaching the 15-year high of 4.883% set last Friday; the 10-year U.S. bond yield rose to 4.22%, recovering more than half of the decline since Oct. 25.

Spot gold turned lower during the U.S. session, losing the $1,680 mark and finally closed down 0.35% at $1,675.32 an ounce; spot silver touched upward to $21 an ounce during the session for the first time since Oct. 5; it closed down 0.2% at $20.79 an ounce.

Crude oil opened lower and turned higher during the session; WTI crude oil touched $93 per barrel upward but eventually closed 0.61% lower at $91.87 per barrel; the market is slightly bullish on U.S. oil prices ahead of the U.S. midterm elections. Brent crude oil broke through $99 during the day, eventually closing down 0.62% at $97.96 per barrel.

U.S. stocks opened higher, turned lower during the session and turned up collectively in late trading, with the Dow closing up 1.31%, the Nasdaq closing up 0.85% and the S&P 500 closing up 0.96%.

European stocks in addition to British stocks generally closed up, Germany's DAX30 index closed up 0.55%; FTSE 100 index closed down 0.48%; France's CAC40 index closed flat; Europe's Stoxx 50 index closed up 0.55%; Spain's IBEX35 index closed up 0.27%; Italy's FTSE MIB index closed up 0.9%.

Hot spots in the market

1. The foreign media reported that the US National Security Adviser had secret discussions with senior aides of Russian President Vladimir Putin in recent months to prevent the risk of escalation of the situation and keep communication channels open, rather than discuss solutions to the Russian Ukrainian conflict.

2. President Biden of the United States spoke with German Prime Minister Wolfgang Scholtz.

3. Apple expects iPhone 14 Pro series shipments to be lower than expected and delivery times to be longer.

4. US media: The US privately asked Ukraine to be open to Russia Ukraine negotiations.

5. According to the interim report of the World Meteorological Organization on the state of global climate in 2022, it is only a matter of time before another warmest year on record occurs.

6. From November 6, the British national insurance rate has been lowered by 1.25%.

Geopolitical situation

Conflict situation:

1. According to satellite news: Ukraine's shelling of Donetsk city center caused damage to the railway bureau building in the city.

2. Russian Ministry of Defense: The Ukrainian army fired 7 shells at the Zapolo nuclear power plant, and its artillery company was suppressed by the Russian army.

3. On November 7 local time, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that at present, about 80000 mobilized Russian citizens are located in areas where special military operations are carried out. Fifty thousand are taking part in the battle, and the rest are still in the training ground.

4. On November 7, local time, the Russian Defense Ministry released a war report saying that the Russian army continued to hit the Ukrainian army in the direction of Kupiansk and Nikolayev-Krivorov and destroyed a number of Ukrainian weapons and equipment. Ukraine says its forces have repelled Russian advances in several areas, including Luhansk and Donetsk, and have launched airstrikes that have hit Russian military targets.

Energy situation:

1. The United Kingdom will announce that it has signed a LNG procurement agreement with the United States. The negotiations between the United States and the United States on the “Energy Security Partnership” have entered the final stage. The United States plans to sell billions of cubic meters of LNG to the United Kingdom in the next year.

2. The National Energy Corporation of Ukraine announced that Kiev City and seven states of Ukraine have started planned power cuts, which does not rule out emergency power cuts in some regions.

3. Platts: The production growth in Russia, Kazakhstan and Iraq offset the production decline in Saudi Arabia and Angola.

Institutional perspective

1. Goldman Sachs：Before the expected implementation of the epidemic control policy, the market will trade one month in advance, and the positive momentum may last two to three months, pushing up China's stocks by 20%, of which cyclical stocks and consumer stocks will be the main beneficiaries.

2. SOCIETE GENERALE：The sharp decline of the US dollar against the Japanese yen or the last major trend of the foreign exchange market this year.

3. MUFG：It is too early for the US dollar to remain weak.

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