Mohicans markets ：MHM Today News

November 16, 2022 - Fundamentals Reminder

☆ The European Central Bank released the financial stability assessment report.

☆ 22:15 The governor of the Bank of England and other officials attended the hearing.

☆ At 22:50, the Federal Reserve William made a speech.

☆ 23:00 European Central Bank President Lagarde delivered a speech.

☆ At 23:30, the US announced EIA crude oil inventory for the week of November 11.

☆ At 01:00 the next day, European Central Bank President Lagarde delivered a speech.

☆ At 03:35 the next day, Federal Reserve Governor Waller delivered a speech on the economic outlook.

Market Overview

Review of global market trend 

On Tuesday, November 15, the US dollar index fell by more than 1% in the day, hitting a three-month low, as the US economic data fell short of expectations and strengthened the prediction that inflation would peak and the Federal Reserve would slow down interest rate hikes. However, after the news of a missile explosion in Poland came out, the dollar index rose to 107 in the short term and hit a new intraday high above 107.10, rising more than 0.4% in the day. However, the US stock market fell again in the late afternoon, closing down 0.36% at 106.56.

With the expectation that the Federal Reserve will slow down and increase interest rates rising, US bond yields fell. The 10-year US bond yield fell to 3.77%, a six week low since October 6; The yield of two-year US Treasuries, which are more sensitive to monetary policy, fell to 4.34%, close to the lowest level in the month. Since the end of 2019, the yield curve of three-month and 10-year US government bonds has been inverted to the largest extent.

The trend of spot gold was volatile, and it broke through the 1780 mark for many times. At one time, it lost $1770 in the session. After midday, the US stock market stopped falling and turned higher, driven by the demand for risk a$21.56/oz.

version. The short-term rise exceeded $15 and broke through $1785/ounce. Finally, it ended up 0.38% at $1778.28/ounce. Spot silver broke through the $22 mark in the session, but then fell sharply, and finally closed 1.91% lower at 

Crude oil fell under pressure due to worries about demand during the day, but it turned higher after the afternoon of the US stock market. WTI crude oil once rose by more than 3% and Brent crude oil once rose by 4%. As of the closing, WTI crude oil closed 1.91% higher at US $86.84 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed 1.33% higher at USD 93.71/barrel.

US stocks opened higher collectively. The news of a missile explosion in neighboring Poland of Ukraine made the global market nervous, and the Dow and S&P fell. However, in the end, the three major stock indexes continued to rise, the Dow rose 0.17%, the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 index rose about 1.45% and 0.88% respectively.

European stocks ended higher except for the UK stock index. Germany's DAX30 index rose 0.46%, Britain's FTSE 100 index fell 0.19%, France's CAC40 index rose 0.49%, Europe's Stoxx 50 index rose 0.73%, Spain's IBEX35 index rose 0.22%, and Italy's FTSE MIB index rose 0.44%. After the news that Poland was hit by a missile, European stock futures quickly hit a new low.

Market Focus

1. U.S. Republicans won 217 seats in the House of Representatives, just one seat short of the majority, compared to 206 seats for Democrats.

2. McCarthy won the Republican nomination for Speaker of the House; Republican Senator Scott announced he would challenge McConnell for the Senate leadership position. Sources said Biden asked Pelosi to remain as House Democratic leader.

3. sources: FTX founder Bankman may travel to the U.S. for questioning.

4. U.S. PPI data for October recorded a lower-than-expected 0.2%, signaling that inflation may be falling again and U.S. stocks surge.

5. Fed study: low liquidity in the U.S. Treasury market remains a concern.

6. World population reaches 8 billion on Nov. 15, 2022.

7. IEA monthly report: global oil production is expected to grow by 740,000 barrels per day in 2023.

8. AP reported that a Russian missile landed in Poland and killed two people; the U.S. side said it could not confirm the report and will gather more information; the Russian side denied striking the Polish-Ukrainian border; Poland: is raising the military's combat readiness level; NATO will meet on Wednesday under NATO Article IV.

Geopolitical Situation

Conflict Situation：

1. The Associated Press reported that a Russian missile landed in Poland and killed two people; the U.S. said it could not confirm the report and would gather more information; Russia denied striking the Polish-Ukrainian border; Zelenski insisted that Russia did it; Poland: national security meeting to be held Wednesday, and is raising the military's readiness level; NATO will hold a council meeting on Wednesday under NATO Article IV.

2. Russia launches largest missile attack on all of Ukraine since conflict; Ukraine says Russia launched about 100 missiles on Nov. 15. 15 energy facilities across Ukraine were damaged, and more than 7 million customers in the first Kiev, Vinnytsia, Volyn, Dnepropetrovsk, Zhytomyr, Lviv and Poltava regions lost electricity.

3. Russian media: Russian military experts think it may be Ukrainian S-300 missiles that fell into Poland. Russian cruise missiles are high-precision weapons that cannot deviate from their course.

4. Air raid warnings were issued again in the Ukrainian regions of Kiev, Cherkasy, Poltava, Kirovograd and Dnepropetrovsk.

5. Russian troops are moving 15-20 km inland from the border on the left bank of the Dnieper River in Kherson region.

6. Serhii Haidai, head of the military administration in Luhansk region, said there is heavy fighting in Luhansk region, but the Ukrainian army is gradually advancing to major cities such as Rubinzhny and Krymina.

7. The Ukrainian military said Ukrainian air defense forces shot down 73 of more than 90 cruise missiles on the 15th.

8. Ukrainian troops blocked the river port and forbade Kherson residents from leaving the city, relevant regional officials said.

Energy Situation：

1. Germany strengthens emergency cash program to deal with power outages.

2. The head of Ukraine's utility sector: Despite the worst situation in its history, Ukraine maintains control of the power grid.

3. The “Friendship” pipeline has suspended oil deliveries to Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia after a rocket hit a substation powering the pipeline in Ukraine.

4. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov: Russia advocates the G20 not to politicize the energy issue.

Institutional Perspective

1. Goldman Sachs：Europe is not yet out of the energy crisis, and oil prices will soar to $115 by early next yea

2. SOCIETE GENERALE：Shorting the pound against the yen may be a more attractive trading strategy.

3. MUFG：A potential split in the U.S. Congress could hit the dollar.

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