Mohicans markets：MHM Today News

November 28, 2022 - Fundamentals Reminder

☆ 22:00 European Central Bank President Lagarde delivered a speech.

☆ At 23:30, the US released the Dallas Federal Reserve's business activity index in November.

☆ At 01:00 the next day, the Federal Reserve William made a speech. In his last speech, he stressed that price stability is crucial to the normal operation of the US economy.

☆ At 01:00 the next day, Brad of the Federal Reserve delivered a speech. Hawk Brad had expected the Fed's terminal interest rate to be as high as 7%.  

☆ At 04:30 the next day, the United States released the weekly position report of CFTC.

MHMarkets - Market Overview

Review of global market trend

Last Friday (November 25), due to the calm holiday trading, the dollar had a little respite. The dollar index rose more than 0.5% during the day to 106.44, but then fell back, and finally ended up 0.41% to 106.06. The dollar index fell nearly 1% throughout the week. Non US currencies fell on Friday. The euro fell 0.5% against the US dollar, the pound fell 0.4% against the US dollar at the deepest point and fell below the 1.21 threshold, and the US dollar broke the 139 threshold against the Japanese yen.

The 10-year US bond yield continued to decline, falling below 3.70%, dropping more than 10 basis points throughout the week to a seven week low. The yield of two-year US bonds fell to 4.467%, down 6 basis points last week. As worries about economic recession intensified, the yield curve of German government bonds hit the deepest reversal since October 1992, with the difference between the yields of two-year and 10-year government bonds being 26 basis points. The yield of 10-year Japanese government bonds rose to 0.25% of the upper limit of the BOJ tolerance range, the first time since November 8. Spot gold fluctuated with the rise and fall of the US dollar. It fell to 1745 from above 1760, then rose to above 1750, and finally closed down 0.13% at 1753.55 US dollars/ounce; Spot silver closed 0.25% lower at $21.45/oz.

Crude oil has turned from rising to falling. As the European Union once again postponed negotiations on price limits for Russian oil, the oil price erased more than 2% of the intraday increase and turned down. WTI crude oil closed 1.81% lower at US $76.53 per barrel, down nearly 5% last week. WTI crude oil has fallen for three consecutive weeks, falling nearly 18% during the period. Last week, it closed at the lowest settlement price since January 3, and the increase in the year narrowed to 1.4%. Brent crude oil closed 1.44% lower at USD 83.79/barrel.

The trend of the three major stock indexes in the U.S. stock market was divergent. The Dow rose 0.45%, the Nasdaq fell 0.52%, and the S&P 500 index fell 0.02%. On Black Friday, the retail sector of the U.S. stock was among the top gainers, with Nordstrom up 2%, Macy's up 1%, and Wal Mart's up 0.4%. Manchester United ADR closed up 13%, up 62% last week, the biggest weekly increase on record.

Most European stocks ended higher, with Germany's DAX30 index up 0.02%, Britain's FTSE 100 index up 0.32%, France's CAC40 index up 0.08%, Europe's Stoxx 50 index up 0.02%, Spain's IBEX35 index up 0.32%, and Italy's FTSE MIB index down 0.05%.

Market Focus

1. U.S. “Black Friday” shopping day online sales of $9.12 billion a record high, and electronics become a major contributor.

2. Avian influenza continues to spread in the U.S.; 1.8 million poultry will be culled on a farm; highly pathogenic avian influenza occurs in many places in South Korea.

3. New York Times: NATO has delivered weapons worth a total of $40 billion to Ukraine; two-thirds of NATO countries have significantly depleted their weapons stocks for Ukraine.

4. More than 3,700 flights in the United States were delayed on the last day of the Thanksgiving holiday.

5. Yonhap News Agency: South Korea's GDP growth forecast for 2023 may be lowered to 1%.

Geopolitical Situation

Conflict Situation：

1. Missile attack on Kavbas in Ukraine's Dnepropetrovsk region.

2. According to satellite news: air raid sirens were sounded in Ukraine's Poltava, Dnepropetrovsk, Cherkasy, Kirovograd regions, as well as in the Ukrainian-controlled part of Zaporozhye.

3. British military intelligence: In the areas around Pavlovka and Vuldar in south-central Donetsk region, there has been heavy fighting but little territorial change in the past two weeks.

4. Russian Defense Ministry: Nearly 80 Ukrainian military casualties in the past 24 hours in the Luhansk Republic.

5. Ukrainian officials: Russian attacks on Ukraine have caused damage to about 32,000 civilian homes and more than 700 critical infrastructure.

Energy Situation：

1. Zelensky: Russian oil price ceiling should be reduced to $30-40 per barrel.

2. Russian Foreign Ministry: European leaders' wrong decisions led to the energy crisis.

3. Zelensky: Attacks on the electricity infrastructure have subjected Ukrainians to the worst blackouts since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in February, and next week is likely to be as difficult as the last.

MHMarkets - Institutional Perspective

1. Goldman Sachs：Commodities will see better days as the Fed expects to pause tightening by the middle of next year.

2. SOCIETE GENERALE：The S&P 500 is expected to reach 3,800 by the end of 2023.

3. MUFG：New Zealand Fed rate decision may give support to New York in the short term.

Statement | Disclaimer

Disclaimer: The information contained in this material is for general consultation only. It does not take into account your investment objectives, financial situation or special needs. We have made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information as of the date of publication. MHMarkets makes no warranty or representation on this material. The examples in this material are for illustrative purposes only. To the extent permitted by law, MHMarkets and its employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising from any information provided or omitted in this material in any way (including negligence). The characteristics of MHMarkets' products, including applicable fees and charges, are outlined in the product disclosure statement provided on MHMarkets' website. Derivatives may be risky; The loss may exceed your initial payment. MHMarkets recommends that you seek independent advice.

MohicansMarkets, (abbreviation: MHMarkets or MHM, Chinese name: Maihui), Australian Financial Services License No. 001296777.