Mohicans markets：MHM Today News

November 30, 2022 - Fundamental Reminder

☆ At 09:30, China announced the official manufacturing PMI in November.

☆ At 18:00, the euro area announced the initial annual rate and monthly rate of CPI in November.

☆ 21:15 The United States announced the number of ADP employees in November.

☆ At 21:30, the United States announced the revised annual quarterly rate of real GDP in the third quarter.

☆ At 23:30, the US announced EIA crude oil inventory and strategic oil reserve inventory for the week of November 25.

☆ At 01:35 the next day, Governor Cook of the Federal Reserve delivered a speech.

☆ At 02:30 the next day, Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, delivered a speech.

☆ At 03:00 the next day, the Federal Reserve announced the economic situation in brown paper.

MHMarkets - Market Overview

Review of global market trend

On Tuesday (November 29), the dollar index stopped falling and turned higher in the day, closing 0.12% higher at 106.79, up for three consecutive days. The dollar rose more than 1% against the Canadian dollar during the day, hitting a new high for nearly a month; The euro once pushed up 1.04 against the dollar and then fell back; The pound once rose above 1.20 against the US dollar, but failed to hold; The dollar rebounded after briefly falling below 138 against the yen.

The yield of US bonds rose. As of the closing of US stocks, the yield of 10-year US bonds was 3.75%, while that of two-year US bonds, which are more sensitive to monetary policy, rose to 4.48%. The 2/10 year key yield curve inverted by more than 73 basis points, more than 81 basis points away from the historical record set on Monday.

Spot gold broke 1758 in the European market, more than $20 higher than the daily low, but then fell to the 1750 level, and finally rose 0.45% to $1749.57/ounce; Spot silver closed 1.5% higher at $21.26/oz.

The news of OPEC+the policy of the December meeting continued to affect oil prices, with crude oil rising by more than 3% in the session. After it was rumored that the output might remain unchanged at the weekend meeting, the crude oil of WTI fell for a while, and finally the crude oil of WTI rose 3.11% to 78.89 dollars/barrel; Brent crude oil closed 2.03% higher at USD 84.90/barrel.

The US stock market showed soft performance throughout the day, with the decline narrowing in late trading. The Dow closed flat, the Nasdaq closed 0.59% lower, and the S&P 500 closed 0.16% lower. The S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq fell for three consecutive days. Among the hot spots, the stock market continued its rising trend on Tuesday. After the success of Bili Bili, they closed up about 22%, Ideal Auto closed up about 9%, and JD closed up about 7%.

European stocks showed divergent trends and ended mixed. Germany's DAX30 index fell 0.21%, Britain's FTSE 100 index rose 0.53%, France's CAC40 index rose 0.06%, Europe's Stoxx 50 index fell 0.04%, Spain's IBEX35 index rose 0.02%, and Italy's FTSE MIB index rose 0.12%.

Market Focus

1. 5 OPEC+ sources and Iraqi side said OPEC+ will maintain 2 million bpd production cut; 2 other OPEC+ sources said the organization will consider further cuts; OPEC+ conference on Dec. 4 is an online meeting, and EU ban on Russian oil comes into effect the next day.

2. Sources: Greece and Cyprus seek $70/bbl price cap on Russian oil, while Poland and Baltic states propose $25-30 cap.

3. The White House seeks to fill strategic oil reserves at a fixed price of $70 per barrel, sources said.

4. U.S. Congress legislation to prevent a rail shutdown may land this week, with Rep. Sanders seeking to include paid sick leave provisions that would otherwise block passage of the bill.

5. Fed discount rate meeting minutes: 9 local Feds support raising the discount rate by 75BP in November, 3 support 50BP.

Geopolitical Situation

Conflict Situation:

1. An air strike alert was issued across Ukraine, Ukrainian officials said on 29.

2. Liamin, a senior researcher at the Russian Center for Strategic and Technological Analysis, said Soviet-style weapons owned by Ukraine were largely destroyed by early summer, allowing Kiev to accelerate the NATOization of artillery and other military services.

3. The Russian Defense Ministry said on the 29th, Russian air defense forces shot down nine drones and intercepted two Hurricane rockets a day.

4. Zelensky: the situation on the front is difficult, despite the heavy losses of Russian troops, they are still trying to attack in the Donbass region.

5. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that NATO Military Command is able to deploy additional forces in the eastern flank and is ready to protect all allies.

Energy Situation:

1. Ukrainian Prime Minister: Ukraine has 14 billion cubic meters of gas reserves; after Russian airstrikes, Ukraine still has a 30 percent energy deficit.

2. According to sources, EU continues to discuss Russian oil price cap, but Greece and Cyprus seek $70 cap, while Poland and Baltic states propose $25-$30 cap.

Institutional Perspective

1. Goldman Sachs：Energy stocks are becoming the sector hedge fund managers are most eager to short, with a 6:1 ratio of short to long.

2. SOCIETE GENERALE：The S&P 500 is expected to reach 3,800 by the end of 2023.

3. MUFG：The dollar index is likely to weaken further as inflationary pressures ease and economic growth slows.

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