Mohicans markets：MHM European Market

MH Markets | 2023-02-15 17:01

Sommario：Although the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in the United States in January hit a new low in nearly a year and a half, the month-on-month growth rate reached a new high, hitting that the inflation prospect in the United States is severe. The market generally raised the expectation of the Federal Reserve's terminal interest rate and the time when it will maintain a high interest rate level in the future, which made the pressure on the gold price obvious.

Market Overview

Although the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in the United States in January hit a new low in nearly a year and a half, the month-on-month growth rate reached a new high, hitting that the inflation prospect in the United States is severe. The market generally raised the expectation of the Federal Reserve's terminal interest rate and the time when it will maintain a high interest rate level in the future, which made the pressure on the gold price obvious. The technical bearish signal continues, and the monthly retail sales rate of the United States in January (commonly known as “terrorist data”) will be announced in in the evening. The market expectation is relatively optimistic, biased towards the bullish gold price, and the short-term gold price may further fall to the low of 1825 dollars in the year.

On Wednesday, February 15, in Asia session, spot gold continued its overnight decline and is currently trading at around US $1846/ounce. Although the year-on-year growth rate of US CPI in January hit a new low of nearly a year and a half, the month-on-month growth rate reached a new high, suggesting that the US inflation outlook is grim. The market generally raised the expectation of the Federal Reserve's terminal interest rate and the time when it will maintain a high interest rate level in the future, which makes the pressure on gold price obvious.

US crude oil has weakened in shock, and is currently trading at around US $78.15/barrel. After the US CPI data overnight, the market's expectation of rapid decline in inflation continues to cool down. The market is worried that the US Federal Reserve may raise its dot-matrix interest rate forecast a bit at the March meeting, and the economic recession worries have increased; In addition, the data in the early morning showed that API crude oil inventory increased sharply by 10.52 million barrels, exacerbating concerns about the demand outlook. Oil prices are facing certain downward pressure in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to the support around the 10-day average of 77.31.

However, OPEC raised its forecast for the growth of global oil demand in 2023 for the first time in several months, and lowered its supply forecast for major non-OPEC oil-producing countries, which still provided some support for oil prices.

Investors need to pay attention to the performance of EIA crude oil inventory data in the evening. The market expects that the increase of EIA crude oil inventory is less than that of API inventory, which may limit the falling space of oil prices.

In addition, investors also need to pay attention to the performance of EIA monthly report and US retail sales data in January.

The Mohicans Markets strategy is for reference only and not for investment advice. Please read the statement clauses at the end of the text carefully. The following strategy was updated at 15:00 Beijing time on February 15, 2023.

Intraday Oscillation Range: 1833-1856-1883-1900

Overall Oscillation Range: 1730-1756-1780-1801-1817-1833-1856-1883-1903-1911-1929-1937-1951-1978-1985

In the subsequent period of spot gold, 1833-1856-1883-1900 can be operated as the bull and bear range; High throw low suction in the range, chase up and kill down outside the range!