Mohicans markets：MHM Today News

☆ Pending Domestic Product Oil Opens a New Round of Price Adjustment Window

☆ Pending OECD announces its economic outlook report

☆ 18:00 Euro Area CPI annual rate final value and monthly rate in February

☆ 21:15 Monthly rate of US industrial output in February

☆ 22:00 US one-year inflation expectations in March, initial value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in March of the United States, and monthly rate of leading indicators of the United States Chamber of Commerce in February

☆ Total number of oil wells drilled during the week from 01:00 the next day to March 17 in the United States

Market Overview

Review of Global Market Trend

Last night, despite the bank crisis, the European Central Bank continued to raise interest rates by 50 basis points as scheduled, sparking speculation about the Fed's movements next week. The dollar index once soared to 104.76, closing 0.19% lower at 104.47. US bond yields rose, with 10-year US bond yields hitting a new six-week low in the session to around 3.37%, rebounding nearly 10 basis points, rising from 3.45% to 3.58% within the day; The yield on two-year US Treasuries, which are more sensitive to interest rate policy, rose more than 30 basis points during the session, and as of the close of US stocks, trading was around 4.16%.

After the announcement of the European Central Bank's interest rate resolution, spot gold briefly plunged from a daily high of more than $20, pushing down to the $1910 level. Subsequently, it recovered some of its losses and closed up 0.03% at $1919.34 per ounce. Spot silver fell to $21.45 per ounce, or 0.43%, to $21.68 per ounce during the day.

After three consecutive days of sharp decline in crude oil, it fell sharply again by 2% during the session. However, as 11 major Wall Street banks stepped in to rescue the First Republic Bank, coupled with better than expected US economic data, market risk appetite rebounded, and crude oil recovered. WTI crude oil ended up 0.01% to $68.22/barrel, while Brent crude oil ended up 0.28% to $74.6/barrel.

US stocks opened lower and rose higher, with the Dow up 1.17%, the Nasdaq up 2.48%, and the S&P 500 up 1.76%. Large technology stocks led gains, with Adobe finishing up 5.9%, Intel finishing up 6.2%, and Microsoft finishing up 4%.

European stocks ended higher, with Credit Suisse easing after the Swiss authorities provided liquidity support. Germany's DAX30 index ended up 1.63%, Britain's FTSE 100 index ended up 0.90%, France's CAC40 index ended up 2.03%, Europe's Stoxx 50 index ended up 2.12%, Spain's IBEX 35 index ended up 1.45%, and Italy's FTSE MIB index ended up 1.37%.

Market Focus

1. The Fed's recent week of discount window usage exceeded that of the financial crisis, overlaid with loans related to transition banks, and its balance sheet surged $300 billion to $8.69 trillion, which was the level of last November.

2. 11 large U.S. banks deposited $30 billion with First Republic Bank, which financial regulators, including the Treasury and the Federal Reserve, welcomed, Powell said in a statement, demonstrating the resilience of the banking system.

3. Vietnam's prime minister sought to ease visa requirements to boost tourism.

4. South Korea and Japan agreed to withdraw their WTO dispute and lift export restrictions, according to a statement from the South Korean trade ministry.

5. US media: Tiger Global 2022 risk fund lost $23 billion.

6. The ECB insisted on raising rates by 50BP despite the banking sector turmoil. the bank's president Lagarde said the determination to fight inflation will not weaken; 3-4 members do not support raising rates by 50BP; the banking sector is in a much better position than in 2008. The bank's action to raise interest rates strengthens market bets on a 25BP rate hike by the Fed next week.

7. The Swiss government held a special meeting on the Credit Suisse incident and demanded that those responsible for Credit Suisse be held accountable; the Swiss People's Party opposed the provision of state guarantees for Credit Suisse; it was reported that Credit Suisse and UBS opposed the forced merger.

Geopolitical Situation

Conflict Situation：

1. The Russian Defense Ministry said that in the last 24 hours in the Donetsk direction nearly 270 Ukrainian troops were eliminated, including the US-made M109 Paladin self-propelled howitzer, and 10 pieces of Ukrainian equipment were destroyed; Ukraine lost up to 275 soldiers in the Donetsk direction; Ukrainian troops lost about 150 men in the Kupyansk and Red Liman directions; the Russian 152-mm howitzer “Msta-B” destroyed a firing position of the Ukrainian self-propelled howitzer “Gvozdika” and an ammunition depot in the Donetsk Malinka district.

2. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Ukrainian troops yesterday eliminated 1,040 Russian soldiers and destroyed 12 Russian tanks; Ukrainian troops shot down a Russian Su-24 aircraft in Bakhmut.

3. Politico reported that more than 100,000 Ukrainian servicemen have been killed in the conflict, citing estimates by U.S. officials.

Assistance Situation：

1. According to Ukrainska Pravda: Canada will provide Ukraine with approximately 8,000 rounds of 155mm ammunition, 12 anti-aircraft missiles, and more than 1,800 rounds of 105mm tank training ammunition to support Leopard-1 tanks provided by Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands; Spain will send four additional Leopard-2 tanks to Ukraine, following a commitment of six. Spain will send four additional Leopard-2 tanks to Ukraine, after having pledged six.

2. Polish President: Poland will provide MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine.

3. Governor of the Central Bank of Ukraine: Ukraine has received about $6 billion worth of Western aid so far this year.

Institutional Perspective

01  Goldman Sachs

The data to date suggests that deposits in the U.S. have begun to move away from banks and toward money market funds.

02  SOCIETE GENERALE

Societe Generale: The Fed's easing cycle is often accompanied by a weaker dollar.

On March 16, Societe Generale's head of foreign exchange strategy Kit Juckes said the dollar has become more vulnerable as the end of the Fed's rate hike cycle draws nearer. The Fed's policy tightening has led to two-year U.S. bond yields both above the previous cycle peak and the previous peak. This is the root cause of the volatility, which brings interest rate peaks closer together. While the dollar sometimes starts to peak before interest rates do, and sometimes after the downtrend begins, the downward cycle in interest rates usually sends the dollar lower as well.

03  MUFG

With the Fed tightening cycle coming to an end, the U.S. and Japan will see a dip.

On March 17, Mitsubishi UFJ economists had a neutral bias on the U.S.-Japanese currency pair in February. But now, they expect the pair to move lower. The bank's economists said, We may soon see a reason for the Fed to do nothing in the next week. The risks to the market are extremely high at the moment, and the continued decline in European bank shares highlights the risk of this evolving into a bigger accident, which would have an impact on risk sentiment and could mean a bigger downside for the U.S. and Japan in the near term. We believe that such a change in market conditions could bring the Fed's tightening cycle to an early end and put pressure on the U.S. and Japan going forward. We have a clear bearish bias on the currency pair's future outlook and are highly likely to experience exceptional volatility.