Mohicans markets：MHM Today News

☆ 08:30 Australian Federal Reserve releases minutes of March monetary policy meeting

☆ 15:00 Swiss February Trade Account

☆ 18:00 German March ZEW Economic Sentiment Index and Eurozone March ZEW Economic Sentiment Index

☆ 20:30 Canada monthly rate of February CPI and ECB President Lagarde's speech

☆ 22:00 U.S. February annualized quantity of Existing Home Sales 

☆ The next day 02:30 New York crude oil April futures completed the last trading on the floor

☆ The next day 04:30 U.S. API crude oil inventories for the week ending March 17

Market Overview

Review of Global Market Trend

Although the market still expects the Fed will probably raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, but yesterday UBS picked up the acquisition of Credit Suisse, coupled with the Fed joint liquidity operations of the five major central banks to stop the spread of the crisis after the market risk aversion has receded, the dollar index closed down 0.48% at 103.31.

Weakened by risk aversion, U.S. bond yields rebounded after falling deeply to a new six-month low. 2-year U.S. bond yields once fell 21 basis points to near 3.63%, which was a new low since September 13 last year, turning up after forcing the 4% mark. As of the close of U.S. stocks, it traded near 3.98%; 10-year U.S. bond yield once fell nearly 11 basis points to 3.29%, which was a new low since September 12 last year; It turned up and once rose to 3.5%, edging up from 3.46% to near 3.48% during the day.

Credit Suisse “bond clearance” risk boosted market demand for gold, spot gold prices continued to climb, the day broke the $ 2000 mark, once rose to $ 2009.69 per ounce; spot gold then fell back to the high, closing down 0.47% at $ 1978.97 per ounce; spot silver intraday rose to $ 22.7 per ounce after turning down, closing down 0.24% at $22.54 per ounce.

Crude oil was down 4% intraday as market risk appetite has still not recovered. But with optimism about Chinese demand making a comeback, WTI crude closed up 2.31% at $67.76 per barrel and Brent crude closed up 1.79% at $73.77 per barrel.

European benchmarks Dutch TTF natural gas and ICE U.K. natural gas both ended the session down about 9%. Dutch futures lost the 40 euro per kcal round figure, hitting another one-and-a-half-year low since August 2021. U.S. NYMEX April natural gas futures fell nearly 5% to a new low of more than two weeks.

U.S. stocks closed higher across the board, with the Dow closing up 1.2%, the Nasdaq closing up 0.39% and the S&P 500 closing up 0.89%. Pinduoduo closed down 14% after the results, First Republic Bank closed down 47% and Credit Suisse closed down 53%; UBS closed up 3%.

European stocks turned up across the board, Germany's DAX30 index closed up 1.15%, the U.K. FTSE 100 index closed up 0.96%, France's CAC40 index closed up 1.27%, the European Stoxx 50 index closed up 1.34%, Spain's IBEX35 index closed up 1.29%, Italy's FTSE MIB index closed up 1.55%.

Market Focus

Conflict situations:

1.The News Office of the Eastern Military Region of Russia stated that snipers in the military region successfully fired with a “VSS Vintorez” special sniper rifle, a Dragunov sniper rifle, and an SV-98 sniper rifle at a shooting range near Khabarovsk.

2. Head of the Russian Wagner Force: 70% of the area of Bakmut has been controlled by our forces.

3.The intelligence department of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine stated that the Russian Kalib cruise missile was destroyed in Dzankoy, northern Crimea, during railway transportation.

4. In a letter, the head of the Russian Wagner Force stated to the Russian Defense Minister that Ukraine planned to counter attack at the end of March/early April. He requested the Defense Minister to take all necessary measures to prevent the Wagner Force from cutting off contact with the main Russian forces, leading to “negative consequences”.

5. Ministry of Defense of Russia: The Russian army attacked dozens of Ukrainian artillery fire points in the directions of Kupiyansk, Kerman, Donetsk, Zaporoge, and Kherson, destroying several different types of artillery; Several Ukrainian army drones were destroyed in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions.

6. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces: The Ukrainian army has repelled dozens of attacks by the Russian army in the directions of Kerman, Bahmut, and Afjevka.

Assistance:

1.Secretary of State for the British Ministry of Defence: London plans to fill its armament gap after Warsaw provides Ukraine with MiG-29 fighter jets.

2.According to “Every Daily News”, Poland may replace the MiG-29 fighter provided to Ukraine with the forthcoming British fighter jet.

3.According to the Associated Press, the United States will ship $350 million worth of ammunition and tanks to Ukraine.

4.Estonian official: EU member states have agreed to provide 1 million rounds of ammunition to Ukraine.

5.According to AFP: The EU has agreed to provide Ukraine with a 2 billion euro ammunition plan.

6. European Defence Agency: 17 EU countries and Norway have signed agreements to jointly purchase ammunition for Ukraine and their own stockpile.

Food situation:

1. According to RIA Novosti: The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that Turkey, Ukraine and the United Nations did not formally oppose the extension of the food agreement for 60 days.

2. Ministry of Agriculture of Ukraine: Ukraine's grain production in 2023 will decrease from 53.1 million tons in 2022 to 44.3 million tons. The Ukrainian grain harvest in 2023 may include 16.6 million tons of wheat, 21.7 million tons of corn, and 4.8 million tons of barley.

3. Putin: If the Black Sea Food Agreement is fully implemented, we will agree to extend the agreement. If we decide not to extend the agreement within 60 days, we are willing to send goods to Africa free of charge.

Institutional perspective

01  

Goldman Sachs

[Goldman Sachs: The impact of banking turmoil on the UK will exceed that of the euro zone]

On March 20th, Goldman Sachs warned that cracking down on the turmoil in the banking sector would become one of a series of adverse factors that will cause the UK economy to stagnate in 2023, as the crisis may limit lending. The bank expects that the recent banking crisis will reduce UK GDP growth by 0.4% to 0.6%, as banks will tighten lending and the financial environment will rapidly tighten. With the cost of living crisis, political instability, and rising interest rates putting pressure on demand, the UK is already on the brink of recession. As a result, Goldman Sachs warned that it was expected that the UK banking sector would be hit harder by the economy than the euro zone.

02

SOCIETE GENERALE

The Bank of England's interest rate resolution looks forward: core inflation may require more action

On March 18th, SOCIETE GENERALE predicted that after raising interest rates by 50 basis points at the previous meeting, the Bank of England will only raise interest rates by 25 basis points this time. Of the upcoming data, the UK's CPI data is the most important. Overall inflation is expected to decline slightly, but core inflation will rise slightly, which supports the need for the Bank of England to take more interest rate action.

03

MUFG

[Mitsubishi UFJ: If the Federal Reserve delays its interest rate increase plan, it may encourage interest rate reduction expectations.]

On March 20, MUFJ Financial Group said that if financial market conditions continue to worsen, the Federal Reserve may delay its plan to further raise interest rates at this week's meeting, and the dollar may further decline. In a report, Lee Hardman, a foreign exchange analyst at Mitsubishi UFJ, said that the US interest rate market's expectation of the Fed's peak interest rate had been lowered to around 4.8%, compared to around 5.6% before the bank's collapse in Silicon Valley. “If the Federal Reserve delays raising interest rates at this week's meeting, there may be a risk that U.S. interest rate market participants will be encouraged to feel more confident in the expectation that the next step will be a rate cut.”