Mohicans markets ：MHM Today News

☆At 04:15 the next day, Williams, the “three leaders” of the Federal Reserve, will participate in a seminar where investors can pay attention to their views on the latest non farm data.

☆The World Bank and IMF will hold their spring 2023 meeting until April 16th.

☆Reminder of Market Closure: Due to Easter, stock markets in various countries in Europe and Asia, as well as Hong Kong stocks, are closed for one day on Monday.

Market Overview

Review of Global Market Trend 

Last Friday, due to Good Friday, spot gold, spot silver, WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil, US stocks, European stocks, and Hong Kong stocks were all closed.

Although the non farm employment data released last Friday evening showed a slight decline, the unemployment rate still showed a “firm” stance, and market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike further increased. The US dollar index briefly rose by over 30 points in the short term, rising above 102 points, and finally closing up 0.17% at 102.09. The 10-year US Treasury yield significantly increased to 3.413%.   

Market Focus 

1. Blinken will visit Vietnam this week and then travel to Japan to attend the G7 foreign ministers' meeting from April 16 to 18.

2. Social media appeared the U.S. military “leaked documents”, the contents of the Ukrainian troop strength, listening to South Korea's high-level internal discussions, Israeli spy agencies and other confidential.

3. Iranian media: Iranian technical delegation will visit Saudi Arabia this week to prepare for the reopening of the embassy.

4. The U.S. Republican Party issued subpoenas to several banks for financial records to investigate the Biden family.

5. April 17 is the target date for the first flight of the SpaceX Starship mission.

6. Palestinian militant groups in Syria claimed responsibility for the rocket attack on Israel.

7. Israeli military: Israel airstrikes on Syrian army compounds, military radar systems and artillery posts. The airstrike was in retaliation for six rockets fired from Syria into the Golan Heights.

Geopolitical Situation

Conflict Situation：

1. Russian Defense Ministry: 2 Ukrainian sabotage groups were eliminated in the direction of Kupyansk.

2. The Ukrainian Armed Forces had to send elite troops, which they had hoped for during the counter-offensive, to the vicinity of Artyomovsk due to the leakage of classified US documents on Ukraine.

3. According to SPUTNIK: Russian National Guard is clearing the newly liberated city of Donetsk of remnant Ukrainian troops.

Institutional Perspective

01

Goldman Sachs

KPMG and Goldman Sachs, others sued over Silicon Valley Bank closure.

On April 9-- KPMG, the firm responsible for providing audit services for Silicon Valley Bank, and Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America and other underwriters of Silicon Valley Bank stock or bonds, have been sued for making misleading statements that led to the closure of Silicon Valley Bank. The lawsuit was filed in the U.S. Federal Court in San Francisco on the 7th local time. In addition to the auditors and underwriters, former Silicon Valley Bank CEO Greg Becker and several directors and officers have also been sued.

02

SOCIETE GENERALE

Societe Generale: The Bank of Korea is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.5%.

On April 10, Societe Generale economists believe the Bank of Korea is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.50% due to falling inflation levels and concerns about economic growth sparked by banking problems in Europe and the United States. Banking problems have sparked concerns among some in Korea about overseas capital flows, though these concerns have eased recently. Some recent activity data suggest that economic conditions are resilient. While the policy statement will likely reaffirm that the Bank of Korea will maintain its tightening stance, leaving the policy rate unchanged for the second consecutive meeting would further support our underlying assumption that the rate hike cycle ended in January.

03

MUFG

Mitsubishi UFJ: Dollar could fall sharply if U.S. jobs data comes in weaker than expected

On April 5 -- The dollar could fall sharply if Friday's weaker-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls report supports growing evidence that positive labor market demand is starting to wane, Mitsubishi UFJ said. Mitsubishi UFJ analyst Derek Halpenny said the data collection for the jobs report comes ahead of the banking sector turmoil in March, which could lead to a further tightening of credit conditions and hit real economic activity. The best performing area of the U.S. economy remains the labor market, but we may be on the cusp of change, Halpenny said, adding that the dollar could be most affected against the core G10 currencies, including the Swiss franc, yen, euro and pound, if Treasury yields fall further as the job market cools.