MHMarkets ：MHM Today News

☆ To be announced, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda attended the Japanese Diet. Kazuo Ueda said at the Group of Seven (G7) meeting last week that the BOJ will maintain monetary easing to achieve the CPI target, and revealed that it has not yet considered the April policy meeting.

☆ At 9:30, the Australian Federal Reserve released the minutes of its April monetary policy meeting. Earlier this month, the Australian Fed announced that it would keep its policy rate at 3.60% while softening the language on the need for further rate hikes, but then Australian Fed President Lowe made hawkish remarks.

☆ At 10:00 China's Q1 GDP annualized rate, March total retail sales of consumer goods annualized rate and March industrial value added above scale annualized rate are announced.

☆ At 20:30 the U.S. March Total Building Permits and the U.S. March Total New Housing Starts annualized are released. Given the recent sensitivity of the dollar index to U.S. economic data, investors should pay enough attention to even the second-tier data.

☆ The following day, API crude oil inventories will be released at 4:30 pm for the week ending April 14. If the inventory is less than expected, it is expected to provide new momentum for crude oil bulls.

Market Overview

Review of Global Market Trend

On Monday, spot gold rose and then fell, reaching a high of 2015.13 during the day, encountered two large single smash during the day, once close to the 1980 mark, the end of the decline has narrowed, and finally closed down 0.39% at $1995.18 per ounce. Spot silver once fell more than 2%, then recovered some of the lost ground, narrowly above the 25 mark, and finally closed down 1.14% at $25.04 per ounce.

The U.S. dollar index continued to rally and regained the 102 mark, eventually closing up 0.512% at 102.11; the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield extended its rally and closed at 3.6%.

International crude oil retreated from its highs as a stronger dollar and investors considered the potential prospect of a May Fed rate hike could dampen hopes for an economic recovery. wti crude oil ended down 1.85% at $81.02 per barrel; brent crude oil ended down 1.84% at $84.99 per barrel.

U.S. stocks ended higher, with the Dow closing up 0.3%, the Nasdaq closing up a modest 0.28% and the S&P 500 closing up 0.33%. Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closed up 3.18%, Xiaopeng Auto closed up about 15%, and Ideal Auto closed up about 6%.

European stocks were mixed, Germany's DAX30 index closed down 0.11%, the FTSE 100 index closed up 0.1%, France's CAC 40 index closed down 0.28%, the European Stoxx 50 index closed down 0.53%.

Market Focus

1. Local officials in the Wa state of Myanmar stated that the state will suspend mineral resource exploration starting from August; Wa State is the largest tin mining area in Myanmar.

2. The Standards Committee of the British Parliament has launched an investigation into Prime Minister Sunak, which involves the declaration of interests.

3. Iranian Foreign Ministry: The President of Iran and the King of Saudi Arabia issued an invitation for mutual visits.

4. China has reduced its holdings of US bonds for the seventh consecutive month, with a total size maintained at a nearly 13 year low of $848.8 billion.

5. Worries of debt default have intensified, with the winning bid yield on the US three-month Treasury bill exceeding 5%, reaching a 22-year high.

6. Speaker of the United States House of Representatives, McCarthy: The House of Representatives will vote on a bill to extend the debt ceiling to next year in the coming weeks.

7. Egypt stated that it is preparing to mediate the situation in Sudan; The United States has stated that there is currently no plan to withdraw citizens from Sudan.

8. Musk confirms that the AI project TrustGPT: an AI that cares about understanding the universe is unlikely to exterminate humans.

9. CME: Plan to expand the contract terms for Bitcoin and Ethereum options starting from May 22nd.

10. Iraq and the Kurdistan region are close to reaching an agreement to resume northern oil exports, and the proposed agreement will not sell oil to Asia.

11. Russia will raise its oil export tariffs to $14.4 per ton from May 1st, and it is expected that oil production will remain stable until 2025; Or a reserve of no more than 700 million barrels and no less than 100 million barrels will be established.  

Geopolitical Situation

Conflict situation:

1. According to Newsweek, citing confidential documents leaked online, the United States and its allies are helping Ukraine prepare for an attack and plan to launch it on April 30th.

2. On the 17th, the Russian General Staff announced that fierce fighting is still ongoing in the eastern cities of Bakhmut and Mariyinka. The Ukrainian defenders repelled more than 60 enemy attacks on the same day, while the Russian army launched 25 missile attacks on the Zaporoze and Mariyinka regions.

3. The British military intelligence agency stated that there are daily reports of civilian casualties related to landmines, with the Kherson and Kharkiv regions being the most severely affected.

Energy situation:

1. Russia expects oil production to remain stable until 2025 and plans to establish reserves

2. G7 officials said that G7 would maintain the Price ceiling sanction of $60 per barrel of Russian crude oil.

3. Russia will raise oil export tariffs to $14.4 per ton starting from May 1st.

4. The US Treasury Department issued a warning that (Russia) may escape the Price ceiling of Russian oil through the Eastern Siberia Pacific pipeline and ports.

Food situation:

1. Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia have announced a ban on importing grain and other food from Ukraine to protect their own agriculture. The Czech Ministry of Agriculture stated that it does not intend to ban the import of Ukrainian grains.

2. EU officials: EU representatives will discuss Ukraine's food exports this week.

3. Minister of Agriculture of Hungary: If the European Union does not take action on Ukrainian grain imports, Hungary may extend the import ban beyond June 30th.

4. Kremlin: The prospects for the Black Sea food agreement are still unclear.

5. Ukrainian Minister of Agriculture: Our first step should be to reopen transportation channels through Poland. Negotiations will take place in Romania on Wednesday and Slovakia on Thursday.

6. Ukraine's Ministry of Postwar Reconstruction: There is a risk of the Black Sea Food Initiative being stopped; Russia once again prevented the inspection of ships in Turkey's waters under the food export agreement.

Institutional Perspective

01

Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs strategists cut the yield forecast of the US 10-year treasury yields. It is expected that the yield of the US 10-year treasury bond will reach 3.9% by the end of the year, 30 basis points lower than the previous forecast. It is expected that the yield of US two-year treasury yields will reach 4.4% at the end of the year.

02

SOCIETE GENERALE

Societe Generale: The US dollar may have peaked against the Canadian dollar, similar to the US interest rate.

On April 12th, Societe Generale stated that no one expected the policy interest rates of the Bank of Canada to change tonight. However, futures traders have established their largest Canadian dollar short position since January 2019. The USD/CAD tracks the relative interest rates between the US and Canada, but so far, the biggest driving force behind this price difference is the trend in US interest rates. We believe that the US dollar has peaked against the Canadian dollar and will decline to 1.25 in the coming months, even though the sticky core CPI data and lackluster policy statements from the Canadian central bank may not have a significant driving effect on the currency pair.

03

MUFG

We believe that recent developments will support the Canadian dollar, so we have added new short positions against the US dollar, with a target level of 1.2950 and a stop level of 1.3650.