MHMarkets ：MHM Today News

☆ Data:

16:00 EUR Germany IFO Business Climate (APR)

22:30 USD Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (APR)

☆ A number of ECB officials will speak.

☆ South Korean President Yoon Seok-yeol will pay a state visit to the U.S. from April 24 to 29.

☆ The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security is scheduled to hold a press conference for the first quarter of 2023 at 10:00.

Market Overview

Review of Global Market Trend 

Last Friday, the April U.S. manufacturing Markit PMI unexpectedly returned above 50 points above the divide between prosperity and decline, and services PMI are not falling but rising, respectively, which was a six-month and one-year high; comprehensive PMI stronger than expected, hitting a new high since May last year. Boosted by this strong data, the dollar index, which was once near a 1-year low during the day, jumped and returned to above the 102 mark. Although it then retreated and closed down 0.04% at 101.74, the U.S. index still closed up last week, reversing a five-week losing streak.

U.S. bond yields also accelerated after the release of PMI data, 2-year U.S. bond yields once rose more than 10 basis points; as of the close of the bond market, 2-year U.S. bond yields traded near 4.18%. 10-year U.S. bond yields also rose from 3.53% to 3.57% during the day, and 2-year U.S. bond yields have risen for two weeks.

Spot gold fell nearly $30 under the pressure of strong data, then recovered some of the lost ground to close down 1.08% at $1982.92 per ounce; weekly has erased most of the gains of the previous two weeks and ended a six-week gain streak. Spot silver fell below the $25 mark once after the release of PMI data, closing down 0.78% at $25.09 per ounce, ending a four-week streak of gains.

Crude oil rebounded on Friday, WTI crude oil once rose to $78.33 per barrel during the day, then fell back to close up 1.04% at $77.91 per barrel; Brent crude oil once rose to $81.82 per barrel and closed up 1.26% at $81.6/barrel. Despite the day's rebound in oil prices, both U.S. and Brent oil fell more than 5% cumulatively last week.

U.S. stocks were lighter on Friday, with the Dow closing up 0.07%, the Nasdaq closing up 0.11% and the S&P 500 closing up 0.09%. Most of the popular Chinese stocks closed lower, TSMC closed down about 4%, New Oriental closed down about 3%, Alibaba closed down about 2%.

European stocks mostly closed higher, Germany's DAX30 index closed up 0.56%; FTSE 100 index closed up 0.13%; France's CAC40 index closed up 0.51%; Europe's Stoxx 50 index closed up 0.53%; Spain's IBEX35 index closed down 0.29%; Italy's FTSE MIB index closed up 0.40%.

Market Focus

1. The US EPA is preparing to propose carbon emission limits for power plants for the first time.

2. The UK's largest charitable fund liquidates its position in Meta and reduces its holdings in Apple and Microsoft.

3. U.S., Germany, Britain, France and other countries begin evacuating people from Sudan.

4. Japan intends to subsidize key mineral projects, up to half the cost.

5. Japanese media: the Bank of Japan plans to evaluate its policy in the past decades on April 27-28.

6. WHO: Armed conflict in Sudan has killed 420 people and the number of injured has risen to 3,700.

Geopolitical Situation

Conflict Situation：

1. Russia eliminated up to 200 Ukrainian servicemen in the Donetsk direction overnight. Ukrainian troops fired 10 multiple rocket launchers rockets into Donetsk.

2. There are reports that Ukrainian troops landed on the left bank of the Dnieper River in Kherson region, which the Ukrainian military did not deny or confirm and Russian-appointed local officials denied.

3. Russian troops shelled the village of Kizomys in Kherson region, injuring two villagers.

4. Russian Defense Ministry: Russian troops took control of more areas in Bakhmut, capturing two neighborhoods.

5. Russian media: Kiev government is removing equipment from major factories in Zaporozhye.

Other Situation：

1. Ukrainian Prime Minister: Ukraine is initiating comprehensive reforms in the energy sector, including integration with the EU and increasing gas production in Ukraine.

2. Brazilian President Lula: will not travel to Russia or Ukraine before the Russia-Ukraine peace talks.

3. Russian Foreign Minister condemned the failure of journalists accompanying the Russian delegation to obtain visas to travel to the U.S. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister said there are no plans to hold a meeting between the Russian Foreign Minister and the U.S. Secretary of State on the “sidelines” of the UN Security Council event.

4. Medvedev: Moscow will terminate the Black Sea grain agreement if the G7 group bans exports to Russia.

5. Russia and the United Nations are scheduled to discuss the prospect of an agreement on the export of agricultural products from the Black Sea ports on the 24th.

6. Musk said he has donated $100 million to Ukraine.

Institutional Perspective

01

Goldman Sachs

According to Nikkei: Goldman Sachs (GS.N) seeks Japanese investment for $1.6 billion green fund.

02

SOCIETE GENERALE

【Societe Generale: U.S. tax revenue drop in April will bring forward debt deadline】

April 21, Societe Generale Subadra Rajappa and other strategists said in a report that the U.S. Treasury is more likely to run out of its borrowing capacity sometime in June if tax revenues for the rest of April are around 50% of 2022 levels. Societe Generale still expects the U.S. Treasury to run out of its borrowing capacity between late July and early August, but the forecast will face uncertainty if tax revenues are much lower than currently expected. Societe Generale said the forecast is based on assumptions about tax revenues for the remainder of April and the size of borrowing available under the extraordinary measures.

03

MUFG

The Bank of Japan is expected to keep monetary policy unchanged amid tight credit in the U.S. and European banking sectors.