India economic growth likely picked up pace in April-June: Reuters poll

BENGALURU, Aug 25 (Reuters) - India economic growth likely accelerated to 7.7% in the April-June quarter, the fastest annual pace in a year, on robust service sector growth, strong demand and increased government capital expenditure, a Reuters poll found.

路透班加罗尔8月25日 - 路透调查发现，由于服务业强劲增长、需求强劲以及政府资本支出增加，印度第四季度至6月季度经济增长可能加速至7.7%，创一年来最快增速。

All but two of 51 economists surveyed between Aug. 18 and Aug. 24 expected gross domestic product (GDP) growth to beat the January-March quarters 6.1% rate, with forecasts ranging from 5.6% to 9.1% range.

8月18日至24日接受调查的51名经济学家中，除两名外，其余所有人都预计国内生产总值(gdp)增长率将超过1月至3月季度的6.1%，预测范围为5.6%至9.1%。

\“Economic activity in Q1 FY-2024 was boosted by a continued catch-up in services demand and improved investment activity, particularly a welcome front-loading in government capital expenditure,\” noted Aditi Nayar, chief economist at ICRA.

icra 首席经济学家阿迪蒂·纳亚尔 (aditi nayar) 表示：“2024 财年第一季度的经济活动受到服务需求持续追赶和投资活动改善的推动，特别是政府资本支出的提前加载。”

Growth in the service sector, the main engine of Asias third-largest economy hit a 13-year high in July, a private survey showed.

一项私人调查显示，亚洲第三大经济体的主要引擎——服务业的增长在 7 月份创下了 13 年来的新高。

Capital expenditure increased to around 2,785 billion rupees ($33.7 billion) during April–June 2023 from the 1,750 billion spent during the same period last fiscal year.

2023 年 4 月至 6 月期间，资本支出从上一财年同期的 17,500 亿卢比增至约 27,850 亿卢比（337 亿美元）。

But growth was forecast to moderate to 6.2% this quarter followed by 6.0% next quarter before slowing to 5.5% in the last quarter of this fiscal year, according to a separate Reuters poll.

但根据路透的另一项民意调查，预计本季度增长将放缓至 6.2%，下季度增长 6.0%，然后在本财年最后一个季度放缓至 5.5%。

India needs even higher growth to provide employment for its millions of unemployed youth, economists say.

经济学家表示，印度需要更高的增长才能为其数百万失业青年提供就业机会。

\“We expect Indias potential growth to inch toward but not exceed 6.5% over the next five years. We believe that policymakers should target a rate of 8.5-9.0% on a sustainable basis to make a meaningful dent in the unemployment problem,\” said Kunal Kundu, India economist at Societe Generale.

“我们预计未来五年印度的潜在增长率将逐步接近但不超过 6.5%。我们认为政策制定者应在可持续的基础上将增长率目标定在 8.5-9.0%，以切实解决失业问题。”法国兴业银行印度经济学家库纳尔·昆杜 (kunal kundu) 表示。

The Reserve Bank of India, which has hiked its key repo rate 250 basis points since last May to curb high inflation, forecasts growth of 6.5% this fiscal year.

印度储备银行自去年5月以来已将关键回购利率上调250个基点以抑制高通胀，并预测本财年经济增长6.5%。

The data is not expected to alter the outlook for unchanged rates from the RBI through Q1 2023.

预计该数据不会改变印度央行 2023 年第一季度维持利率不变的前景。

($1 = 82.5350 Indian rupees)

（1 美元 = 82.5350 印度卢比）