MHMarkets：September 08, 2023 - Fundamental Reminder

☆ 07:50 JPY Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est (Q2) & JPY Balance of Trade (JUL)

☆ 22:00 USD Wholesale Inventories MoM (JUL)

☆ The next day at 01:00 USD Baker Hughes Total Rig Count (SEP/08)

Market Overview

Review of Global Market Trend

After Wednesday's ISM non-manufacturing index showed the services sector remained strong, Thursday's initial jobless claims hit a half-year low and showed the labor market remained resilient, again reinforcing market expectations of Fed tightening. The dollar index stood above the 105 mark and closed up 0.19% at 105.07.

Treasury yields briefly rose after the strong data, before retreating, with the two-year yield falling to 4.95% from 5.02% during the day and the 10-year yield falling to near 4.25% from 4.29%.

Spot gold plate once turned down, and then return to the $1920 mark, but closing failed to keep the barrier, closed up 0.17%, to $1919.66 an ounce. Spot silver fell for seven straight sessions and settled down 0.86% at $22.97 an ounce, a near three-week low.

Crude oil retreated from a near one-year high, with WTI crude falling as low as $85.88 a barrel before closing above $86, down 0.94% at $86.73, while Brent crude lost the $90 mark, down 0.96% at $89.54.

The three major U.S. stock indexes opened lower and fluctuated to the upside, with the Dow Jones up 0.17%, the Nasdaq down 0.89% and the S&P 500 down 0.31%. Nasdaq tech heavyweight Apple closed down nearly 3%, its second straight day of declines. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell 4%, while Xpeng closed down 7.8%, Bilibili fell 6.7% and Alibaba fell nearly 5%. VinFast Auto tumbled 26%, pushing its market value back down to $40 billion.

Major European stock indexes mostly fell, with Germany's DAX30 closing down 0.14%, Britain's FTSE 100 up 0.20% and the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.40%.

Market Focus

1. The Fed - Williams: monetary policy is in a good position, action depends on the data, more to be published in September Po Floyd: will continue to work to achieve the inflation target, goolsbee: peak close to interest rate, how long is the issue is the need to remain high; Workers went on strike has a substantial influence on the fed's decision, libraries, he confirmed as the fed last seat director position is approved, the fed will finish all in this month's policy-setting meeting.

2. Nikkei News: Japan's prime minister plans announced a cabinet reshuffle after the G20 summit.

3. The U.S. Department of Defense will adjust the deployment of U.S. forces in Niger and withdraw some non-essential personnel.

4. Apple has lost $190 billion in market value for two days in a row. The index fell 4%.

5. The vice President of the United States Harris: if biden because of health problems can't ruling, ready to take over the President position.

6. Japanese media: As of June 6, 6,100 tons of nuclear contaminated water has been discharged, and the second batch of discharge is expected to start as soon as the end of this month.

7. Australian Union Representation: Chevron LNG workers have agreed to further postpone planned strike action until 1pm local time on Friday.   

Geopolitical Situation

Conflict Situation

1. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg: Ukraine is gradually making progress in its counter-offensive.

2. Ria Novosti: Drone destroyed in Volgograd region, Russia.

3. Governor of Orbryansk: A Ukrainian drone was neutralized by electronic warfare systems in the oblast and crashed in the area of the railway station.

4. Mr. Zelensky praised three military units in the east and south for “very effective” actions against Russian forces.

5. Russia's defense ministry said on the 7th, the past day, Russian forces in zaporozhye, donetsk, him to Yang tusk, dividends, and hull, the way such as pine defeat Ukrainian military attack, blow wu army tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, armored vehicles, and us-made M777 artillery and other military equipment. The Russian air defense forces to shoot down Ukrainian military drones, 41 hit more than 10 rockets and missiles.

7. The General staff of the Ukrainian armed forces released a war report on the 7th, saying that in the past 24 hours, there have been more than 30 battles in the front line areas. Ukraine's armed forces continue to attack action in the direction of merry topol. The air force, rockets and artillery of Russian military personnel and equipment, high, ammunition, control points and Russian air defense system is implemented.

Assistance Situation

1. The German arms-making group Rheinmetall has delivered to Ukraine the first batch of ammunition for Cheetah antiaircraft tanks.

2. U.S. Secretary of State Blinken: Announced more than $1 billion in new aid, including $665.5 million in new military and civilian security assistance for the reinforcement of U.S. Abrams Tanks and F-16 training for Ukrainian pilots in the U.S. in the fall.

Food Situation

1. Ukrainian Minister of Economy: Ukraine starts exporting grain through Croatian ports.

2. UK Prime Minister Sunak said in a call with Ukrainian President Zelensky that the UK would work with G20 countries to bypass the restrictions of Russia's Black Sea food blockade to drive progress. 

Institutional Perspective

01

Goldman Sachs

【Goldman Sachs CEO responds to criticism: Complaints stem from bonus cuts and business changes】

September 8 - Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon defended his leadership at the bank in an interview on Thursday, blaming criticism of his leadership on reduced bonuses and operational changes. “It's not fun,” he said. “I don't even recognize the cartoons that depict me.” The move comes after a series of new reports questioned Solomon's leadership, but Solomon dismissed the complaints as “noise” caused by lower bonuses for 2022 and business tweaks, including the consolidation of the bank's asset management arm. Goldman's performance has been very strong, he said, in his conversation with your colleagues or shareholders do not hear them complain. “I understand why it's interesting and compelling for the press, but it's not what people at Goldman are focused on,” he said.

02

SOCIETE GENERALE

SOCIETE GENERALE: Cut its 12-month target for MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan by 2% to 665. Upgraded South Korean stocks to overweight from neutral.

03

MUFG

Reuters poll: Upside risks to Dollar outlook

Sept 7 - Dollar strength will be hard to overcome through year-end, according to a Reuters poll of foreign exchange strategists who see upside risks to the greenback's outlook. According to the survey, the 53 analysts polled, with 43 (81%) think upside risks to the outlook for the dollar. “We think dollar strength is here to stay and will be sustained over the next three months,” said Jane Foley, head of foreign-exchange strategy at Rabobank. But according to about 70, currency strategist at the median forecast of the dollar against most major currencies in a year is expected to moderate to weaken, most of which will appear in the next year, more and more close time for the fed to cut interest rates for the first time. “Over the next six to nine months, we expect the Fed to start cutting rates and at that point we think the dollar will weaken again,” said Lee Hardman, senior currency analyst at MUFJ Financial Group.