MHMarkets：January 25, 2024-Fundamental Reminder

21:15 EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision

The market expects it to leave its three main rates unchanged.

21:30 USD GDP Growth Rate QoQ Flash (Q4) & USD Consumer Spending QoQ Flash (Q4) & USD Core PCE Prices QoQ Flash (Q4)

21:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (JAN/20)

The market expects it to record 200,000 people.

21:45 EUR ECB Governor Lagarde Monetary Policy Press Conference

Market Overview

Review of Global Market Trend

On Wednesday, the dollar index has retraced, the plate once below the 103 mark, and fell to 102.77 intraday low, but then quickly recovered this level, and finally closed down 0.27% at 103.24; 10-year U.S. bond yields stood firm at 4.1% mark, closed at 4.180%; more sensitive to the Fed's policy rate of two-year U.S. bond yields closed at 4.384%.

Spot gold fell off a cliff in the U.S. trading session, losing 2030, 2020 two major hurdles in a row, and finally narrowly defended 2010, closing down 0.76% at $2013.91 per ounce. Spot silver and gold trend is not the same, its in the U.S. trading session once close to the $ 23 mark, and finally closed up 1.01% at $22.67 per ounce.

Perhaps because of the U.S. crude oil inventories fell more than expected and the U.S. crude oil production slump, the international crude oil rallied sharply. WTI crude oil stood on $75, and finally closed up 1.17% at $75.31 per barrel; Brent crude oil returned to the $80 mark, and finally closed up 0.75% at $80.23 per barrel.

The U.S. Dow closed down 0.26%, the S&P 500 closed nearly flat, and the Nasdaq rose 0.36%. MSFT.O closed up 0.9%, failed to stabilize the $3 trillion market value, and NVDA.O continued to hit a new record high closed up 2.5%, the market value exceeded $1.5 trillion. Nasdaq China Golden Dragon index for two consecutive days of strength, closed up 1.88%, DOYU.O rose nearly 7%, TME.N rose 4%, BABA.N and NASDAQ:JD both rose more than 1%.

Major European stock indexes closed higher across the board, with Europe's Stoxx 50 closing up 2.2%, Germany's DAX 30 closing up 1.58%, and Britain's FTSE 100 closing up 0.56%.

Market Focus

2. The chairman of the U.S. Republican Party in New Hampshire said Trump won the Republican primary for the state's presidential election, and Biden reportedly won the Democratic primary in New Hampshire.

3. The preliminary value of the U.S. January Manufacturing PMI was recorded at 50.3, a 15-month high; the manufacturing output index was recorded at 48.7, a 2-month high; the preliminary value of the services PMI was recorded at 52.9, a 7-month high; and the preliminary value of the composite PMI was recorded at 52.3, a 7-month high.

5. U.S. media reported that the Biden administration is suspending a decision on whether to approve the largest natural gas export terminal project in the U.S.

6. EIA reported that the U.S. EIA crude oil inventories fell by 9.233 million barrels in the week to January 19, exceeding expectations of a decrease of 2.15 million barrels and recording the largest decline since the week of August 25, 2023, according to the EIA report. U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventories increased by 920,000 barrels to 356.5 million barrels. The EIA expects weekly U.S. crude oil production to fall by 1.0 million barrels per day due to winter storms.

Institutional Perspective

01

Morgan Stanley

【MUFJ: It is expected that the Bank of Japan will end negative interest rates in March】

After more hawkish signs were revealed in the outlook report of the Bank of Japan and the post meeting press conference of President Kazuo Uchida on Tuesday, MUFJ Securities expects the Bank of Japan to end its negative interest rate policy in March. Japan's 10-year treasury bond bond yield rose 8.5 basis points to 0.72%, which was the highest level in more than a month.

02

JP Morgan

【JP Morgan: Promoting the use of the Fed's discount window helps eliminate its stigmatization and enhance financial stability】

JP Morgan has stated that the latest attempt by U.S. regulators to include the Fed's discount window in banks' daily liquidity plans may end the tool's decades long stigmatization. Banks have been cautious about using this Fed tool aimed at providing emergency funding to institutions in need. For a long time, the use of this tool has been seen as a warning to financial markets that the institution is in trouble, although regulatory authorities insist that the discount window does not carry this stigma.

03

Fitch

【Fitch: It is expected that the global rating outlook will remain balanced this year as interest rate cuts and inflation slow down】

On January 24, Mike Ming, head of global sovereign ratings at Fitch , the world's third-largest rating agency, stated that it is expected that the global rating outlook will remain balanced in 2024 as interest rate cuts and inflation slow down. Fitch predicts that global policy interest rates and inflation rates will both show a downward trend in 2024. Fitch predicts that the Fed will lower interest rates three times starting around mid year, and by the end of 2024, the rate will drop to 4.75%. Fitch expects the European Central Bank and the Bank of England to also cut interest rates three times, lowering them to 3.75% and 4.5% respectively; The People's Bank of China will lower interest rates to 2.35%. The Bank of Japan will be the only major central bank to raise interest rates, as Japan's wage and price increases will ultimately support its entry into policy rate normalization.