March 18, 2024, DAILY MARKET NEWSLETTER: Global Markets Mixed, Bitcoin Volatile as Central Banks Loom

MARKET WRAP

Stocks, Bonds, Commodities

• US stocks ended Friday down: Dow Jones -0.49%, S&P 500 -0.65%, Nasdaq 100 -1.15%.

• Tech, consumer discretionary, and healthcare saw the largest declines.

• US 10-year Treasury yield rose slightly to 4.308%.

• Central banks in the US, Japan, UK, and Australia to decide interest rates this week.

• Key Losers: Amazon (-2.42%), Microsoft (-2.07%), Meta (-1.57%), Jabil Circuit (-16.49%), Adobe (-13.67%), Ulta Beauty (-5.21%)

• Key Gainers: Rivian (+3.27%), Tesla (+0.66%)

• US consumer sentiment dipped in March (76.5 vs. 76.9 expected).

• NY manufacturing index fell sharply (-20.9 vs. -5.0 expected).

• Industrial production edged up slightly in February (0.1% vs. -0.1% expected).

• European indices were mixed: DAX 40 -0.03%, FTSE 100 -0.20%, CAC 40 +0.04%

• WTI crude oil dipped to $81.03 a barrel.

• Gold eased to $2,157 an ounce.

Forex

• US dollar remained strong (index at 103.45).

• Fed expected to hold key interest rate steady this week.

• EUR/USD edged up to 1.0887.

• USD/JPY surged to 149.07 as Japan's central bank is likely to end negative interest rates.

• GBP/USD slipped to 1.2733; AUD/USD declined to 0.6561.

Bitcoin

• Bitcoin volatile over the weekend, first slumping, then partially recovering.

GBP/USD Intraday: the downside prevails.Pivot:1.2760Our preference:Short positions below 1.2760 with targets at 1.2710 & 1.2690 in extension.Alternative scenario:Above 1.2760 look for further upside with 1.2780 & 1.2800 as targets.Comment:The RSI lacks upward momentum.

USD/JPY Intraday: bullish bias above 148.75.Pivot:148.75Our preference:Long positions above 148.75 with targets at 149.35 & 149.60 in extension.Alternative scenario:Below 148.75 look for further downside with 148.35 & 148.00 as targets.Comment:Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

EUR/USD Intraday: key resistance at 1.0900.Pivot:1.0900Our preference:Short positions below 1.0900 with targets at 1.0870 & 1.0855 in extension.Alternative scenario:Above 1.0900 look for further upside with 1.0915 & 1.0930 as targets.Comment:As long as 1.0900 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.

Dow Jones (CME)‎ (M4)‎ Intraday: under pressure.Pivot:39300.00Our preference:Short positions below 39300.00 with targets at 39040.00 & 38930.00 in extension.Alternative scenario:Above 39300.00 look for further upside with 39430.00 & 39560.00 as targets.Comment:Technically the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50.

All trade involves risks