Global Economic and Market Developments: Key Highlights

1

At a critical moment following the NATO summit, US President Joe Biden mistakenly referred to Vice President Kamala Harris as Trump and misidentified Ukrainian President Zelensky as Putin during a press conference. These errors have increased concerns about his cognitive state. Despite this, Biden expressed a firm intention to run in the 2024 presidential election, but these gaffes have raised more questions within the Democratic Party.

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Increased political discussions could influence the USD.

FX Pair:EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD

Impact on Shares:

US Market: Potential impact on market sentiment.

Companies:General Market Indices

2

Nvidia erased gains from the past two days due to TSMC's June sales data, which showed a 10% year-on-year decline, indicating a modest report. Profit-taking likely caused this drop. Tesla's stock plummeted after Elon Musk postponed the announcement of the “robotaxi” from August to October. These movements contributed to a 1.95% drop in the Nasdaq.

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Negative sentiment could weaken the USD.

FX Pair:USD/JPY, EUR/USD

Impact on Shares:

US Tech Market: Negative impact on Nvidia and Tesla.

Companies:Nvidia (NVDA), Tesla (TSLA), TSMC (TSM)

3

In June 2024, US inflation cooled significantly, marking the slowest growth rate since 2021, primarily due to a prolonged decline in housing costs. The core consumer price index (excluding food and energy) rose by only 0.1%, the smallest increase in three years. The overall index fell for the first time due to lower gasoline prices.

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Lower inflation could weaken the USD.

FX Pair:EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD

Impact on Shares:

US Market: Positive impact on consumer sector stocks.

Companies:Major US consumer goods firms

5

Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is expected to announce measures to boost consumption in the federal budget on July 23, aiming to further stimulate growth for consumer companies and retailers.

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Expected economic measures could strengthen the INR.

FX Pair:USD/INR, EUR/INR, GBP/INR

Impact on Shares:

Indian Market: Positive impact on consumer and retail sector stocks.

Companies:Major Indian consumer and retail firms

6

The Japanese yen showed volatility on Friday following reports of the Bank of Japan conducting a rate check with traders, reinforcing speculation of market intervention to support the yen.

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Potential market intervention could strengthen the JPY.

FX Pair:USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY

Impact on Shares:

Japanese Market: Positive impact on financial sector stocks.

Companies:Major Japanese financial institutions

7

US and German security agencies foiled an alleged plot by Russian operatives to assassinate Rheinmetall AG CEO Armin Papperger. Rheinmetall supplies weapons to Ukraine.

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Increased geopolitical tensions could strengthen the USD as a safe-haven currency.

FX Pair:EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD

Impact on Shares:

Global Defense Market: Positive impact on defense sector stocks.

Companies:Rheinmetall AG (RHM.DE)

8

Dollar General has reached a comprehensive settlement with US safety regulators to address widespread safety issues in its stores. This marks a potential turning point for one of America's most prevalent retailers after years of disputes over in-store safety conditions.

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Improved corporate governance could strengthen the USD.

FX Pair:EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD

Impact on Shares:

US Retail Market: Positive impact on Dollar General stock.

Companies:Dollar General (DG)

9

French President Emmanuel Macron worked to reassure other leaders at the NATO summit in Washington that domestic political challenges will not affect his support for NATO's goals, particularly regarding Ukraine.

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Continued support for NATO could strengthen the EUR.

FX Pair:EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP

Impact on Shares:

European Market: Positive impact on defense sector stocks.

Companies:Major European defense firms

10

Apple has reached a settlement with EU regulators, avoiding fines over its mobile payment technology. Under the agreement, Apple will allow other providers access to its mobile payment technology for free over the next ten years. This ends an investigation into the company's protected payment technology.

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Regulatory compliance could strengthen the EUR.

FX Pair:EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP

Impact on Shares:

Global Tech Market: Positive impact on Apple stock.

Companies:Apple Inc. (AAPL)

11

US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan reported progress in ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas but emphasized that a final agreement is not imminent. Speaking during the NATO summit, Sullivan noted more positive signals than in recent months, while cautioning that significant hurdles remain.

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Ongoing discussions could influence the USD.

FX Pair:EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD

Impact on Shares:

Global Market: Potential stabilization of market sentiment.

Companies:General Market Indices

13

According to sources, France's next government will need to find over 15 billion euros in additional revenue or savings annually to meet EU requirements. Current Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire has pledged to maintain stable public finances, highlighting the challenges faced by President Macron in forming a potential coalition government.

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Fiscal challenges could weaken the EUR.

FX Pair:EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP

Impact on Shares:

European Market: Negative impact on financial sector stocks.

Companies:Major European financial institutions

14

OpenAI has introduced a five-tier classification system to track the progress of its AI software development. This effort aims to help people better understand the latest advancements in AI safety and future applications.

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Increased transparency in AI could stabilize the USD.

FX Pair:EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD

Impact on Shares:

Global Tech Market: Positive impact on AI-related stocks.

Companies:OpenAI (private), Major tech firms

15

Chilean investors are preparing for a rare wave of commercial property sales as shareholders voted to liquidate two large real estate investment funds. Managed by Toesca SA and Banchile Inversiones, the $552 million real estate portfolio may soon hit the market, raising concerns about a potential downturn in Chile's commercial property sector.

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Increased property sales could weaken the CLP.

FX Pair:USD/CLP, EUR/CLP, GBP/CLP

Impact on Shares:

Chilean Market: Negative impact on real estate sector stocks.

Companies:Toesca SA, Banchile Inversiones