DBG Markets: Market Report for Dec 17, 2024

Market Overview

GOLD - Gold prices have held steady and recovered slightly from the previous day‘s lows. We anticipate further buying momentum leading up to Thursday’s expected rate cut announcement, which may prompt a stronger dollar and a potential reversal.

The MACD indicates weakened buying strength, while the RSI suggests overbought conditions, pointing to weak momentum for further upward movement. This increases the likelihood of a continued sell-off. We await additional price action and confirmations to determine the direction, though overall price action has already shifted towards selling.

SILVER - Silver prices continue to decline with strong bearish momentum. Further selling is expected, supported by the MACD and RSI, both signaling continued downward movement.

DXY - The dollar shows slight easing ahead of Thursday‘s anticipated rate cut. Both the MACD and RSI indicate increased selling momentum and volume. Market expectations for aggressive rate reductions next year have diminished due to inflationary concerns, especially with Donald Trump’s anticipated return to the White House.

Another factor bolstering dollar strength is the expectation of an inflationary environment under Trumps 2025 economic plans. Earlier this year, markets anticipated substantial rate cuts, evidenced by the unexpected 50-basis-point cut by the Fed in September. Analysts suggest that the December rate cut could be the last for several months to a year if Trump pursues inflationary policies, potentially leading to discussions of rate hikes in the near future.

GBPUSD - The pound maintains a bearish outlook, but both the MACD and RSI show signs of gaining bullish momentum following yesterdays trading session. Prices are expected to trend upward ahead of the rate cut announcements.

AUDUSD - The Australian dollar remains consolidated between previously identified key levels. The MACD is showing signs of slowing, with a consolidating pattern, while the RSI lacks clear directional bias. This reflects weakness in both the Aussie dollar and the U.S. dollar. Further movements are awaited for clarity.

NZDUSD - The Kiwi remains in consolidation with a slight upward push suggested by the MACD and RSI. However, the RSI shows divergence, reflecting hesitation in establishing a clear direction. While the MACD indicates reduced buying strength, recent histograms suggest an increase in momentum. Additional price movements will provide clarity on the next direction.

EURUSD - The euro shows growing potential for continued bullish momentum. The RSI indicates lower levels following a broader price swing, supported by the MACD, which reflects increasing strength for upward movement. However, market reactions to upcoming Fed rate cuts will be closely monitored to confirm this trend.

USDJPY - The yen is showing increased weakness, with price movements reflecting exaggerated selling levels despite minimal pullbacks. Both the MACD and RSI suggest significant buying momentum and volume. Traders are awaiting the Bank of Japan‘s (BOJ) upcoming statements to gauge their policy intentions. Recent dovish remarks, particularly in anticipation of Trump’s administration, have reduced the likelihood of a rate hike in December.

USDCHF - The franc remains in consolidation slightly below 0.89431. Both the MACD and RSI indicate growing strength for a potential continuation of buying momentum.

USDCAD - The CAD exhibits increased weakness against the dollar. The MACD is nearing a bullish crossover, while the RSI signals growing momentum for buying. A breakout from the current consolidation could lead to further upward movement.