Ultima Markets: USDJPY Analysis - Risk aversion may boost the yen

Fundamental Analysis of USDJPY

USDJPY Key Takeaways

• JGB yield surge: On Friday, long-term Japanese government bond yields surged, with the 20-year JGB yield climbing to 2.25% and the 30-year JGB yield rising to 2.556%, both hitting their highest levels since the 2008 financial crisis. This reflects that market expectations for inflation and monetary policy tightening in Japan are heating up.
• US tariff uncertainty: The Trump administration‘s tariff policy continues to bring uncertainty to the market. The White House’s failure to provide clear information on the long-term tariff issues facing Canada and Mexico has exacerbated market concerns. Although Trump postponed the deadline for imposing tariffs on some goods from both countries, the market did not rise as a result. Comments by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent further suggest that tariff hikes may be unavoidable.

Technical Analysis of USDJPY Daily and Hourly Charts

USDJPY Daily Chart Insights

(USDJPY Daily Price Chart, Source: Ultima Markets MT4)

• Stochastic oscillator: The indicator once again sends a short signal above the oversold level, suggesting that short-term short forces have the upper hand, but there is a probability that the indicator and the exchange rate will form a bottom divergence pattern in the future, and investors need to remain vigilant.
• Breaking the key support: The closing price of USD/JPY yesterday fell below the key support price near 148.60, and the exchange rate fell below the lowest price of the pin bar on Monday. There is a high probability that the yen will appreciate today.

USDJPY H1 Chart Analysis

(USDJPY H1 Price Chart, Source: Ultima Markets MT4)

• Stochastic oscillator: During the Asian session, the indicator sent a short signal above the 50 median line, and the priority for shorting opportunities during the day is to follow the trend.
• Resistance area: After breaking through the red rectangular area, the exchange rate is currently in a rebound trend. At the same time, there is a black 65-period moving average above the exchange rate, and the heavy resistance above may limit the rebound of the USD/JPY.

Pivot Indicator Insights for USDJPY

(USDJPY M30 Price Chart, Source: Ultima Markets APP)

• According to Pivot Indicator in Ultima Markets APP, the central price of the day is established at 147.30,
• Bullish Scenario: Bullish sentiment prevails above 147.30, first target 148.40, second target 148.80;
• Bearish Outlook: In a bearish scenario below 147.30, first target 147.00, second target 146.70.

How to Navigate the Forex Market with Ultima Markets

To navigate the complex world of trading successfully, it's imperative to stay informed and make data-driven decisions. Ultima Markets remains dedicated to providing you with valuable insights to empower your financial journey.

For personalized guidance tailored to your specific financial situation, please do not hesitate to contact Ultima Markets.

Join Ultima Markets today and access a comprehensive trading ecosystem equipped with the tools and knowledge needed to thrive in the financial markets.

Stay tuned for more updates and analyses from our team of experts at Ultima Markets.

Legal Documents

Ultima Markets, a trading name of Ultima Markets Ltd, is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Commission “FSC” of Mauritius as an Investment Dealer (Full-Service Dealer, excluding Underwriting) (license No. GB 23201593). The registered office address: 2nd Floor, The Catalyst, 40 Silicon Avenue, Ebene Cybercity, 72201, Mauritius.

Copyright © 2025 Ultima Markets Ltd. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.