Volatility Playbook: Prepare for These Moves

Market Analysis

GOLD

Gold prices are experiencing increased bullish momentum driven by rising geopolitical tensions. Prices are currently approaching the EMA200 and the lower boundary of the consolidation zone, which may act as the next resistance level before continuation. Until technical indicators confirm a stronger bullish structure, we maintain a cautious bullish outlook.

SILVER

Silver is exhibiting renewed selling pressure after failing to break above the EMA200. The MACD reflects bearish momentum, albeit with subtle development, while the RSI is trending downward from overbought levels. Overall, the setup supports further downside potential.

DXY

The Dollar continues to maintain a bullish structure, with prices bouncing off the EMA200. The MACD appears poised for a bullish crossover, suggesting renewed upside momentum after a corrective phase. The RSI is also supportive of continued gains. However, rate expectations are shifting:

Market-implied probability for a June rate cut has fallen to 37%, down from 64% a month ago.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 177K (vs. 130K forecast), although the March print was revised lower to 185K.

These figures do not yet reflect the impact of new tariffs imposed on April 2. Slower job growth is anticipated in the coming months as the effects materialize.

GBPUSD

The Pound remains technically consolidated, although price action suggests support for a bullish structure despite being under the EMA200. The MACD is neutral, while the RSI hints at potential continuation of selling from overbought levels. A decisive break in structure will be needed for clarity.

AUDUSD

The Aussie dollar is showing clear bullish momentum, supported by a rising MACD and a recovering RSI from previously overbought conditions. The overall price structure remains positive, and as such, we anticipate continued upside—especially if U.S.-China trade talks yield further progress.

NZDUSD

The Kiwi is also experiencing renewed bullish movement. Both the RSI and MACD are trending higher, signaling growing buying interest. While earlier conditions were overbought, current technicals suggest further room to the upside.

Markets have fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming central bank meeting, with expectations that the policy rate could bottom out at 2.75% by October, which supports the bullish case.

EURUSD

The Euro remains range-bound, with no clear break in structure. As such, we refrain from calling a directional bias until technicals show a definitive breakout or breakdown.

USDJPY

The Yen is showing early signs of a bullish reversal, albeit within a consolidation phase. The EMA200 is sloping upward, suggesting underlying demand. The RSI is rising from oversold territory, and the MACD supports continued buying, despite limited price movement. We expect this bullish structure to develop further in the coming sessions.

USDCHF

The Franc maintains an overall bullish bias, though price action is currently consolidating. We are monitoring for signs of continuation but will withhold directional confirmation until a breakout occurs.

USDCAD

CAD remains in a consolidation phase, continuing its bearish trend with no clear breakout. We refrain from making any directional calls until a decisive move confirms the next leg of the trend.

COT Report Analysis

AUD - WEAK (4/5)

GBP - STRONG (4/5)

CAD - WEAK (3/5)

EUR - STRONG (5/5)

JPY - STRONG (5/5)

CHF - WEAK (2/5)

USD - MIXED

NZD - STRONG (2/5)

GOLD - STRONG (2/5)

SILVER - STRONG (5/5)