Goldman Sachs Lays Out a Shock Brent Oil Scenario

There‘s a storm brewing in the oil market, but it’s not exactly the kind that makes headlines.

Though Brent has held up in the mid-$60s to low-$70s range, a rising imbalance could flip those assumptions upside down.

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Now, Goldman Sachs just flagged a scenario, catching the energy bulls off-guard and potentially triggering a price dislocation few saw coming.

If their reading is correct, Brent is marching into unfamiliar territory, with ripple effects for policy, inflation, and the global supply chain heading into 2026.

Brent and the global oil market

Brent is like oils universal language.

Though it‘s basically a “light, sweet” crude sourced from the UK-Norway North Sea, it is essentially the benchmark for the bulk of the world’s oil and refined products.

It's not exactly the biggest or best barrel, but the ease of shipment and widespread use in pricing make it the go-to reference point for international traders.

Every day, we see Brent moving alongside other markers, including WTI (U.S.) or Dubai/Oman (Middle East-Asian belt).

Moreover, local supply-demand impact, transport logistics, and sulfur content effect can result in Brent dipping below forward prices as storage builds and exports pile up.

However, what matters isnt just the price, but also the context.

Inventories, shipping-related hiccups, and refining margins explain Brents direction a lot more than headlines.

The world consumes a whopping 103 million barrels a day, while global production runs mostly in line. Additionally, the U.S., Saudi Arabia, and Russia are currently leading the pack, but Brents influence continues to stick.

Goldman Sachs says Brent could plunge to the low $50s by late 2026

Goldman Sachs just dropped a bearish scenario for the oil market, which few saw coming.

The bank projects Brent crude could dip to the low $50s per barrel by late next year, citing a persistent global surplus, including a massive inventory build-up.

Their forecast includes a 1.8 million barrels per day oversupply from Q4 2025 through Q4 2026, which could lead to a concerning 800 million barrels of extra oil in storage.

A big chunk of that glut, roughly at 270 million barrels, would sit in OECD countries, which Goldman believes may push Brent‘s “fair value” far below today’s mid-$70s range.

Though forward contracts show that Brent may hold near current pricing through the rest of the year, Goldman sees a rare twist in 2026.

That means stockpiles could rise so quickly that spot prices trade below forward levels, a bearish dislocation that should surprise many.

However, theres the China stockpiling wildcard.

If Beijing doubles down on its strategic reserves intake from 0.4 to 0.8 mbpd, it may lift Brents 2026 average by $6 a barrel, taking prices closer to the $62 mark.

Brent outlook: rangebound, with a bearish tilt

Brent crude has mostly been rangebound in the mid-$60s to low-$70s, with a current spot price around $67, including a 52-week range of $58 to $83.

LSEG data shows the 2025 average hovering at around $68 and $71.

The softness is linked to a rising supply, while demand levels remain sluggish. OPEC+ has unwound earlier cuts and is adding new barrels into the summer.

Moreover, U.S. production is close to 13.4 mb/d, and Brazil/Guyana growth is adding to the pool. Similarly, the IEA trimmed 2025 demand growth to 680 kb/d, citing flat OECD use and weaker emerging-market appetite.

Even geopolitical flashpoints, such as the Red Sea impact and Ukraine, havent stuck, while the market has shrugged off war-risk premiums.

Key near-term takeaways for Brent oil:

• OPEC+ discipline and pace of supply additions remain critical.
• U.S. shale output and well completion rates can significantly impact supply.
• Geopolitical shocks (Hormuz, Red Sea) may add brief premiums.
• Baseline: EIA sees sub-$60 Brent in Q4 if trends hold.