DBG Markets: Market Report for Nov 13, 2025

Volatility Heightens as U.S. Shutdown Ends; Gold Eyes $4,200, GBP & AUD in Focus

Global risk assets bounced strongly following highly positive news that the U.S. government shutdown is nearing a formal end. However, market performance was mixed: the Dow Jones Index closed higher, while the Nasdaq lagged, down 0.25%, pressured by the SoftBank clearance sale of Nvidia shares, signaling profit-taking in technology momentum stocks.

Macro Outlook: Final Vote & Data Flood

With the U.S. Congress passing the funding bill late Wednesday (U.S. time) and President Trump signing it shortly after, the 43-day shutdown is officially ending. This removes a major source of systemic risk, allowing markets to refocus on economic fundamentals and the logistics of delayed data releases.

The most critical near-term events are the announcements for the backlog of delayed reports, including Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and CPI inflation data. The concentrated release of these reports poses a high risk of heightened volatility, making market positioning particularly sensitive in the coming days.

U.S. Dollar Outlook: As highlighted in previous updates, the U.S. Dollar is likely to remain range-bound as markets await clarity from the upcoming economic data and the Feds policy direction. In the meantime, volatility may temporarily shift focus to other regional economic releases.

Australia Jobs Boom Strengthens AUD

Australias October employment report exceeded expectations, delivering strong support to the Aussie Dollar:

· Core Data: Unemployment fell to 4.3% (vs. 4.4% expected), with job additions surging to 42,200 — more than double the forecast — all full-time positions.

· RBA Implications: The robust labor market reduces the probability of near-term rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), strengthening AUD fundamentals.

AUD/USD, H4 Chart

AUD/USD gained following the data release. However, on the broader trend, the pair remains in a consolidation phase with no clear directional bias. The 0.6500 level serves as key support, with a potential breakout likely to signal the next move.

Pound Sterling Faces GDP Data Test

Todays U.K. GDP release is pivotal for the Pound, especially following recent dovish signals from the Bank of England (BoE).

Downside Risk: A disappointing GDP report would reinforce market concerns about U.K. economic weakness, potentially accelerating expectations for a BoE rate cut and intensifying the Pounds downtrend.

GBPUSD Technical Outlook

GBPUSD, H4 Chart

GBP/USD is in a bearish reversal setup following a double-top neckline breakout. The 1.3200 level now serves as strong resistance. Continued pressure below this level could maintain the bearish trajectory. Weak GDP data may act as the catalyst.

GBPAUD Technical Outlook

GBPAUD, Daily Chart

Meanwhile, GBPAUD shows an interesting technical setup, reflecting a clear divergence between AUD strength and GBP weakness in the macro outlook.

The recent long-term trend channel breakout points to further downside potential. Key attention now focuses on the psychological zone between 2.025–2.000. While this area may provide near-term support, continued bearish sentiment for GBP could trigger a decisive breakout below 2.000.

GBPAUD, H4 Chart

Technically, consolidation below 2.025, followed by a break under 2.000, would signal additional downside momentum, reinforcing a bearish trajectory for this cross pair.

Gold: Surges as Fed Uncertainty Lingers

Gold extended its strong rally this week, driven by lingering Fed policy uncertainty, a softer U.S. Dollar, and easing political risks as the U.S. government shutdown nears its conclusion. The metal has gained over 5% so far this week, as investors reposition toward alternative safe-haven and inflation-hedge assets ahead of the expected data flood that could challenge the Feds policy outlook.

XAU/USD, H4 Chart

Technically, gold has extended its upside momentum toward the $4,200 level following last weeks breakout rally. Immediate resistance is observed near $4,180–$4,200, and current price action suggests a potential breakout may be forming.

· A solid break above $4,200 could present a potential intraday long opportunity.

· Any pullback near resistance may offer a dip-buying opportunity, with immediate support now seen around $4,135.

However, $4,200 remains a significant resistance at this stage. Traders should remain cautious of potential false breakouts in the near term.

Bottom Line

Global markets rallied following the official end of the U.S. government shutdown, reducing systemic risk and boosting investor confidence. The U.S. Dollar remains range-bound as markets await key economic releases, including NFP and CPI data, which will likely dictate Fed policy expectations.

Gold continues its bullish momentum toward $4,200, though traders should remain cautious around this key resistance level.