DBG Markets: Market Report for Nov 26, 2025

PPI Cools Inflation Fears, Rate Cut Bets Increased; Outlook on US Dollar, Gold & UT100

Market Focus Snapshot: Data Validates the Pivot

Global risk assets staged a broad recovery on Tuesday, fueled by cooling inflation data that validated the recent dovish rhetoric from Federal Reserve officials. US Stock Indices extend gain this week, close higher on yesterday, The tech sector remains the primary engine, supported by AI optimism.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) faced immediate selling pressure following the data, falling to below the 100-mark, ending its recent consolidation near 100-handle. While Gold capitalized on the weaker Dollar and rising rate cut bets, firmly reclaiming and holding above $4,100. However, the crypto market lagged the broader risk rally, with Bitcoin rebounding modestly but remaining capped below the $90,000 resistance.

PPI Clears Path for December Rate Cuts

The release of the September Producer Price Index (PPI) provided the “green light” markets had been waiting for, aligning closely with dovish signals from Fed officials earlier in the week.

The September PPI came in at or slightly below expectations, confirming that pipeline inflation pressures are easing. Meanwhile, Retail Sales data also showed signs of cooling.

· Fed Impact: This data validates the recent dovish pivots by Governor Waller and NY Fed President Williams. It provides the statistical evidence the Fed needs to justify easing policy to support the labor market without fearing a resurgence of inflation.

· Market Pricing: Consequently, the implied probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has risen further to 84%, up from roughly 35% just a few days ago.

The increased bets on the Fed cut expectation has undoubtedly shifted the recent market dynamics changes.

Dollar Index: Face Reversal Risk

The U.S. Dollar lost its primary support after the PPI release, reflecting higher Fed cut expectations. The Dollar Index now trades below the key 100.00 handle.

USD Index, H2 Chart

Technically, the Dollars drop below 100 signals growing bearish pressure. A sustained break below this level could indicate an imminent trend reversal.

Outlook: With the “higher-for-longer” narrative undermined by the PPI data and the 84% probability of a rate cut, the Dollar is expected to maintain a weak bias below 100.00 in the near term. The next support zone lies near 99.25–99.00, while 99.50 remains a key level to monitor.

Gold: Powered by Yield Outlook

Gold has found renewed structural support, fueled by rising expectations for a Fed rate cut and lower yields, which remain favorable for the metal.

XAU/USD, H2 Chart

The metal has successfully reclaimed the $4,100–4,130 zone, using the weaker Dollar and falling yields as a springboard. Technically, the next key level to watch is $4,150, with the recent resistance zone now appearing to have been broken and potentially turning into support.

Outlook: The fundamental backdrop, particularly the high probability of a rate cut, supports further upside in gold. As long as prices hold above $4,100 (with $4,150 as the near-term support), bulls may look to challenge the next resistance zone near $4,200.

Nasdaq 100: AI Optimism and Resistance Test

Googles Gemini 3 AI model continues to reverberate through the tech sector. Seen as a “dark horse” capable of challenging industry leaders, its release has prompted a re-rating of the tech landscape, supporting the broader Nasdaq recovery despite lingering valuation concerns.

Additionally, lower rate expectations have revived sentiment for tech-heavy sectors, which are highly sensitive to forward-looking growth prospects.

UT100 (Nasdaq100), Daily Chart

Following the AI-led bounce, the Nasdaq 100 is re-testing the critical 25,000 resistance zone.

This level represents the decisive battleground: a clean break above 25,000 would confirm the correction is over and signal the start of a new leg in the AI-driven rally. Failure at this zone could trigger a potential “head & shoulders” reversal pattern.

Bottom Line

The September PPI report acted as the catalyst the bulls were waiting for, shifting the market from merely “hoping” for a rate cut to actively pricing one in. This has pushed markets back into a risk-on mode, supported by dovish Fed signals, easing inflation pressures, and robust tech sector momentum.

Asset Outlook:

· The U.S. Dollar shows near-term weakness.

· Gold remains structurally supported.

· Nasdaq 100 is testing key resistance levels.

With the U.S. entering the final trading day before the Thanksgiving holiday, todays focus will be on the initial jobless claims data. Traders should also monitor for any shifts in macro conditions, technical breakout points, and AI-related catalysts, as these factors will determine whether the current bullish sentiment is sustained or faces renewed volatility.