ETO Markets Global Pulse: Oil Surges 5%, Reclaims 72

Market Review

According to ETO Markets monitoring, on July 7 (Tuesday), WTI crude rose more than 5%, briefly touching USD 72.36 per barrel and hitting a one-week high. A new series of US strikes on Iran raised concerns that the fragile ceasefire could break down, lifting geopolitical risk premium.

On July 8 (Wednesday) during early Asian trading, WTI crude continued to rise and traded near USD 72.45 per barrel. The US resumed oil sanctions on Iran, while fresh military action renewed market concerns over supply security in the Middle East.

Global Headlines

US Revokes Iran Oil License

The US Treasurys OFAC revoked a general license that allowed Iranian oil sales. Wind-down transactions can continue until midnight ET on July 17. Treasury Secretary Bessent previously announced a 60-day license on June 22, covering Iranian crude, petrochemical, and petroleum product transactions. The license was originally set to run until August 21, 2026.

Iran Opens Fire On Ships

Anonymous US officials said early indications showed Iran recently fired on three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Washington called the action “completely unacceptable” and warned of consequences. US officials also said negotiators were still working in good faith toward a final agreement with Iran. Tehran has not yet responded.

US Launches Iran Strike Campaign

US CENTCOM said its forces had begun a series of powerful strikes against Iran. Washington said the action was a response to Iran targeting commercial shipping operated by civilian crews in international waters. The US said Irans attacks on three vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz were dangerous and clearly violated the ceasefire.

EIA Cuts Oil Price Forecasts

The EIA lowered its oil price forecasts for the next two years. It now expects WTI crude to average USD 76.26 per barrel in 2026, down from its previous forecast of USD 88.32. For 2027, it sees WTI at USD 60.76, down from USD 74.39. Brent crude is now forecast at USD 81.91 in 2026 and USD 64.76 in 2027.

FED Hike Odds Rise Again

CME FedWatch showed a 73.3% probability that the FED will hold rates unchanged in July, with a 26.7% chance of a 25bps hike. By September, markets priced a 52.7% chance of a 25bps hike and a 14.9% chance of a 50bps hike. By December, the probability of at least 50bps of tightening rose to 43.6%.

US Trade Deficit Widens Sharply

The US trade deficit widened 42.2% in May to USD 77.6 billion, the largest gap since March 2025. Exports fell 3.2% to USD 317.7 billion, while imports rose 3.3% to USD 395.3 billion. Petroleum exports continued to increase, while imports of computer accessories and semiconductors rose again.

Trump Repeats Greenland Control Claim

Ahead of a bilateral meeting with Turkish President Erdogan in Ankara, Trump said Greenland “should be controlled by the US,” not Denmark. He said Greenland is important to the US and linked the issue to Americas military presence in Europe, adding that the US could withdraw all troops from Europe.

ETO Markets Analyst View (WTI Oil)

WTI crude remains below the 81.70 level, keeping the technical structure weak. If prices remain capped below this key resistance, the market will continue to watch the 78.50 area. A sustained break below 78.50 could open the way toward 76.50.

If WTI breaks back above 81.70 and holds there, short-term downside pressure may ease. Upside could then test 83.50 and potentially extend toward 85.50.

The technical structure still identifies 78.50 as an important short-term support level. A break below this level may trigger a deeper move toward 76.50.

The market continues to reprice US strikes on Iran, the return of Iranian oil sanctions, shipping security in the Strait of Hormuz, and FED policy expectations. Traders should carefully assess market timing and risk exposure.

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