2024-11-04 23:03
業界UBS Election Playbook: Trading All Scenarios
Republican Scenarios:
Red Sweep + "Bad Trump": Stagflation risk • Long: Gold, Energy, EU Defense • Short: EU Banks, China stocks
Split Congress + "Good Trump": US Exceptionalism • Long: US/EU Cyclicals, Trump Financials • Short: Gold, US Defensives
Democrat Scenarios:
Blue/Split Congress + Harris: • Long: Homebuilders, Renewables • Short: Republican Winners, Trump stocks
Key themes: Tax policy, housing focus
Lower global rates expected
Cross-Asset Impact:
Rep Win: Higher volatility, US outperformance
Dem Win: Lower USD, higher global growth
Watch sectoral rotation closely
Risk Alert: Position sizing crucial given multiple scenarios.
#Election2024 #Trading #Markets #Stocks
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UBS Election Playbook: Trading All Scenarios
香港 | 2024-11-04 23:03Republican Scenarios:
Red Sweep + "Bad Trump": Stagflation risk • Long: Gold, Energy, EU Defense • Short: EU Banks, China stocks
Split Congress + "Good Trump": US Exceptionalism • Long: US/EU Cyclicals, Trump Financials • Short: Gold, US Defensives
Democrat Scenarios:
Blue/Split Congress + Harris: • Long: Homebuilders, Renewables • Short: Republican Winners, Trump stocks
Key themes: Tax policy, housing focus
Lower global rates expected
Cross-Asset Impact:
Rep Win: Higher volatility, US outperformance
Dem Win: Lower USD, higher global growth
Watch sectoral rotation closely
Risk Alert: Position sizing crucial given multiple scenarios.
#Election2024 #Trading #Markets #Stocks
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