MHMarkets：December 8, 2023,--Fundamental Reminder

07:50 JPY GDP Growth Annualized QoQ 2nd (Q3)

21:30 USD Non Farm Payrolls s.a (NOV) & USD Unemployment Rate (NOV)

23:00 USD 1 Year Inflation Expectations (DEC) & USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Flash (DEC)

Market Overview

Review of Global Market Trend

On Thursday, U.S. bond yields in the initial jobless claims release further retracted intraday gains. 10-year U.S. bond yields again close to the 4.1% mark, back to three-month lows, closed at 4.144%; more sensitive to the Federal Reserve's policy rate of two-year U.S. bond yields closed at 4.592%.

As the Japanese monetary authorities unexpectedly clear hints will be adjusted policy, the yen appeared nearly a year the biggest one-day rise. USDJPY in the U.S. trading session briefly jumped more than 200 points, the market speculation may be due to the “fat finger” caused. The overall decline in the day once expanded close to 4%, and then basically recovered the early morning plunge in the lost ground, re-established the 144 mark, closed at a three-month low. Under the pressure of the stronger yen, the dollar index suffered a setback. After falling below 104, it continued to sink, and finally closed down 0.509% at 103.65, halting a three-game winning streak.

Before the release of the week's most important non-farm payrolls data, spot gold continued to hold steady sideways, approaching the 2040 mark during the session before falling back, and finally closed 0.18% at $2028.61 per ounce; spot silver closed down 0.29% at $23.8 per ounce.

After five consecutive days of losses, international crude oil appeared relief rebound, but still hovering in the lows since the end of June. WTI crude oil finally closed up 0.16% at $69.56 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed up 0.19% at $74.36 per barrel.

The three major U.S. stock indexes closed collectively higher. Technology stocks led the way, the Dow closed up 0.18%, the Nasdaq closed up 1.37%, the S&P 500 closed up 0.8%, AMD.O closed up 9.8%, GOOGL.O rose more than 5%, NVDA.O rose 2.4%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closed down 0.1%, BABA.N rose 1%, XPEV.N fell more than 4%, and amusement park operator GDHG tumbled 89%, dropping its market value to $100 million.

Major European stock indexes generally closed lower. Europe's Stoxx 50 closed down 0.21%, Germany's DAX 30 closed down 0.16%, and Britain's FTSE 100 closed down 0.02%.

Market Focus

1. Initial jobless claims rose to 220,000 in the week ended December 2, slightly lower than the 222,000 expected. Continuing U.S. jobless claims fell to 1.86 million in the week ended Nov. 25, which was the biggest drop since July and the second decline since early September.

2. On Thursday, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda talked about the options after the exit of negative interest rates, and said that the policymaking in December has become more challenging, the day overnight index swaps once showed that the Bank of Japan's chances of ending the negative interest rate policy this month is close to 45%. The comments came a day after BOJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himiino hinted that the BOJ may soon end the world's last negative interest rate policy, the clearest signal yet from the BOJ leadership.

3. Morgan Stanley A-share index fund announced self-purchase of up to 20% of the outstanding shares, the number one position stocks for Maotai.

4. The Federal Reserve: the third quarter stock market value fell 1.7 trillion U.S. dollars, real estate value growth of 0.5 trillion U.S. dollars.

5. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen: If participants in the interpretation of the data “thoughtful”, the bond market expectations of the Fed's actions can be a useful addition to monetary policy.

6. According to reports, the Biden administration last week warned Israel to end military action as soon as possible. Details of the message passed to Israeli leaders, Biden administration officials set 2024 as the target date for ending Israel's massive military campaign against Hamas.

Institutional Perspective

01

JP Morgan

【JP Morgan: 99% of Americans' economic situation will be worse than before the Covid-19】

As Americans deplete their savings, they will have much less spending power, creating a headwind for the U.S. economy, according to a report released Thursday by JP Morgan. Most Americans have already depleted the excess savings they accumulated during the Covid-19, and in the coming months, almost everyone could be in worse financial shape than they were in 2019, JP Morgan said.

Kolanovic, the bank's chief equity strategist, said 80% of consumers have depleted any savings cushion they may have accumulated during the Covid-19, and that group accounts for nearly two-thirds of total consumption.

“It is likely that only the top 1 % of consumers with the highest incomes will be better off than they were before the Covid-19.” Kolanovic wrote. He points to growing signs of delinquencies on credit cards and auto loans, as well as increasing numbers of business bankruptcy filings.

02

Goldman Sachs

【Goldman Sachs: It is expected that the ECB will gradually lower interest rates by 25 basis points starting from this time next year】

Goldman Sachs said in a report on Thursday that it expects the ECB to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at each meeting starting next April. The bank's economists forecast that the ECB's deposit rate will fall to 2.25% by the beginning of 2025 from the current 4%. The economists said a rate cut was more likely to start in April given their expectation of firmer economic growth, continued strong wage growth and more data confirming a slowdown in underlying inflation. They had previously predicted the ECB would cut rates by 25 basis points per quarter.

03

UBS

【UBS: UBS Group AG and Credit Suisse Group AG sign final merger agreement】

The UBS Board of Directors today approved the merger of UBS AG with Credit Suisse AG, following the merger of the two holding companies, UBS Group AG and Credit Suisse Group AG, in June, UBS Group said in a statement on December 7. Subject to the approval of their respective boards of directors, the two companies have signed a definitive merger agreement.