The Trump trade has already shown signs of loosening in the last week, manifested in a stronger dollar, weaker bonds/higher yields, and stronger cryptocurrencies. On the final day of the campaign, the dollar index fell to a two-week low. The dollar also started the week on a bearish note. The dollar index briefly broke below its 200-day moving average in the sub-session, with the EUR/USD testing the 1.09 level, while the GBP/USD, which was hit by last week's budget, has now recovered, briefly approaching the 1.30 resistance level. If Harris wins on Wednesday, we could see a rapid reversal of the Trump trade, i.e. a sharp weakening of the dollar and increased volatility in currency and bond markets. But if Trump wins the election and is re-elected president, the direction of the dollar will be more influenced by the outcome of the congressional elections. Trump and a Republican Congress could cause the dollar to rise sharply and emerging market currencies, the euro and the pound to fall sharply. For now, markets are waiting for the outcome of the US election. Markets are expected to remain calm Monday and early Tuesday, but could follow suit once initial results emerge Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.