GBP/USD rises ahead of a key week with election, BoE & Fed rate decisions GBP/USD is inching higher amid a weaker USD and ahead of a busy week, with US elections and rate cuts expected from the Federal Reserve and the BoE. The pound is rebounding after falling last week as the market digested Labor's budget, which brought with it higher taxes, borrowing, and investing. While the market lowered BoE rate cut expectations GBP still fell amid concerns over growth. Attention will now turn to the Bank of England interest rate decision later this week. The central bank is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points, although the probability of this happening has lowered from last week. BoE governor Andrew Bailey is unlikely to guide for another rate cut this year. Meanwhile, the US dollar is falling away from a three-month high in nervous trade ahead of tomorrow's election and Thursday's FOMC rate decision As expectations of a Trump win have lowered on the Polymarket, and the US dollar is falling as the Trump trades unwind slightly. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, marking the second straight rate cut after an outsized reduction in September. Mixed data last week, including a hotter-than-expected core PCE and a weaker-than-expected nonfarm payroll report, haven't materially changed the outlook for the Federal Reserve, which is expected to continue gradually cutting rates. Looking ahead, US factory orders will be released later today. They are expected to show that orders fell 0.4% Month over Month after falling 0.2% previously. The data will play second fiddle to the election nerves. GBP/USD forecast – technical analysis GBP/USD has recovered from a low of 1.2840, pushing back above 1.29 and the rising trendline dating back to mid-May. Buyers need to rise above the psychological level of 1.30 to negate the near-term downtrend. Above here, 1.31 comes into play. Failure to rise above 1.30 keeps sellers in control, with 1.2840 and the 200 SMA at 1.2810 targets on the downside.