While most traders know how impressive recent US economic data has been, many wouldn’t be aware that European data is no longer anywhere near as dire as what some of the headlines would have you believe. Citi’s economic surprise index for euro area data is show in blue in the chart below. For those who have not come across the indicator before, it tracks how data comes in relative to forecasts, with a score above 0 signalling that more data than not is topping expectation. The further away from 0, the greater the magnitude of net data Even though the Euro area score remains marginally below 0, the proportion of data undershoots has diminished considerably over the past month, in part due to the bar being lowered after a lengthy period of disappointment. While the US index continues to power higher, at some point lofty expectations will start to deliver data disappointment, creating conditions where dollar strength may fade.