The Trump administration's tariffs, which are prioritizing trading partners, are expected to set off a series of retaliatory actions that will create winners and losers as yet unknown, complicate supply chains and create inflationary pressures, and make the easing path for central banks a bumpy one. In addition, continued US economic growth and potential inflation triggered by tariffs are headwinds to further rate cuts, but in any case, terminal rates are likely to settle at higher levels than before the pandemic. At the same time, different interest rate paths will directly affect foreign exchange rates, capital flows, and put pressure on emerging market debt. Higher tariffs and a housing crisis could further slow growth in Asia. Commodity prices are likely to fall further because of sluggish demand in Asia, squeezing manufacturers' profit margins and weighing on growth. More fiscal stimulus to spur growth could exacerbate already excessive leverage.