04/08 Market report

【Dow Jones】

Recently, there has been warning signs in indexes such as the inversion of long-term bond yields and short-term bond yields. The VIX panic index has also reached below 20, and now there are warning signs in the Dow Jones Transportation Index which tracks 20 plane, rail and truck stocks to assess the overall economic fitness. Since peaking in November 2021, it has recently pulled back nearly 20% to show a bearish market.

From the daily technical line of the Dow, KD is at the bottom of the golden cross and it indicates that there is a pull back and there is a chance to a rebound in the follow-up. Although the Alligator has narrowed its opening, it is still a golden cross and this indicates that the strength of the bulls still exists.

USA30-D1

Resistance point 1: 35000 / Resistance point 2: 35500 / Resistance point 3: 36000

Support point 1: 34200 / support point 2: 33800 / support point 3: 33000

【US Dollar Index】

In the minutes of the Fed's March meeting, many officials began to raise interest rates by 2 yards in March, but because the instability factor of the Ukrainian-Russian war was very high, there was only a 1-yard rate hike in the end. They have suggested that they may increase rates by half a percentage point in May which is twice as much as usual.  

The officials believe that the US economy is currently good and the employment rate is also good. However, the inflation is much higher than the 2% set so these Fed officials believe that interest rate hikes are necessary measures.

The dollar index has come to the highest position in more than a year and is ready to challenge the 100 mark. With the US continuing to raise interest rates and there is a bond yield soaring situation, the dollar momentum is very attractive to investors. Many investors have been attracted to the US dollar as a safe-haven + investment currency.

Usindex

Resistance point 1: 100.00 / Resistance point 2: 100.50 / Resistance point 3: 100.80

Support point 1: .99.50 / support point 2: 99.20 / support point 3: 98.80

【GBP】

The UK's Halifax house price index accelerated further to 1.4% month-on-month (0.8% higher in the previous value) in March, and the average house price rose to £282,753 (£43,577 higher than the first lockdown of the outbreak two years ago), marking the eighth consecutive month of record highs. This is the biggest increase in half a year and it indicates that property prices are also rising.

From the GBPUSD daily technical line, Alligator shows a death crossover while the KD shows a low figure. This indicates that the selling pressure of the pound is actually very strong. The GBPUSD has been trading in a consolidated manner and is waiting for a breakthrough.

GBPUSD-D1

Resistance point 1: 1.31200 / Resistance point 2: 1.31800 / Resistance point 3: 1.32200

Support 1: 1.30000 / Support 2: 1.29500 / Support 3: 1.29000

【Crude Oil】

The U.S. Senate passed a bill banning oil and gas imports from Russia by a vote of 100-0. This is a bill that prohibits the United States from importing oil, natural gas, coal and other energy products from Russia.

To put it simply, at present, the international community is still sanctioning Russia's energy exports. Beginning early this week, Europe, Japan, and others are expected to join the US in releasing more from their reserves, adding about 30 to 50 million barrels to the world market over the same six-month period. This is expected to ease crude oil demand.

For the daily technical line of crude oil, KD has begun to enter the low figure while the tangled Alligator has begun to drop towards a death crossover. Therefore, it means that the pattern of crude oil has changed its direction. The price has fallen below the previous low and the current trend has become a short-sided pattern.

USOIL-D1

Resistance point 1: 98.500 / Resistance point 2: 100.200 / Resistance point 3: 101.500

Support 1: 95.200 / Support 2: 93.800 / Support 3: 91.500

OnePro Special Analyst

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