Mohicans markets：MHM Today News

In order to further meet investors' demand for real-time news on the international market and broaden the channels for investors to understand the market, MHMarkets launched Today News to provide investors with real-time market information.

October 21, 2022 - Fundamentals Reminder

☆ 14:00 Quarterly adjusted monthly retail sales rate in September

☆ 20:30 Canada retail sales monthly rate in August

☆ 21:10 Federal Reserve Williams delivers a speech at the event

☆ Total number of oil wells drilled in the week from the United States at 01:00 the next day to October 21

☆ At 03:30 the next day, the US CFTC released its weekly position report

Market overview

——Source: jin10&Bloomberg

On Thursday, October 20, stimulated by the hawkish speech of the Federal Reserve officials, the 10-year US bond yield rose above 4.2% in the session, continuing the high since 2008;

The yield of two-year US Treasuries, which are more sensitive to interest rates, rose to 4.616%, a new high since 2007. The 30-year US bond yield rose to 4.196%, the highest level since August 2011. The dollar index edged down 0.06% to 112.85;

The dollar rose as high as 150.28 against the yen, making investors highly wary of further intervention measures. Sterling rose more than 1% against the US dollar in the session, then gave up most of its gains.

Spot gold rose more than 1% to US $1645.62 per ounce during the day, then fell rapidly, and finally ended down 0.03% to US $1627.96 per ounce; Spot silver rose 3% in the session and ended up 1.29% at $18.68/oz.

Crude oil surged and fell back, and WTI crude oil closed 0.06% higher at 85.91 USD/barrel; Brent crude oil closed 0.22% lower at USD 92.82/barrel. Continental Europe TTF benchmark Dutch gas futures closed 13% higher and ICE UK gas futures closed 22.6% higher.

US stocks rose more than 1% at one time, but turned down in the afternoon, and finally closed down slightly, with the Dow closing 0.3% lower, the Nasdaq closing 0.61% lower, and the S&P 500 closing 0.8% lower. Most of the popular Chinese stocks rose, with Xiaopeng Automobile and Ideal Automobile closing up about 3%. Tesla closed down about 6% after the performance.

European stocks generally ended higher, with Germany's DAX30 index up 0.2%; The FTSE 100 closed 0.27% higher; France's CAC40 index rose 0.76%; Europe's Stoxx 50 index closed 0.62% higher; Spain's IBEX35 index closed 0.81% higher; Italy's FTSE MIB closed 1.07% higher.

Market Focus

——Source: jin10 & Bloomberg

1、Tesla resigned as the British Prime Minister, who was only 6 weeks in office, and became the shortest-tenured British Prime Minister ever; and the Conservative Party will complete the party leader election within the next week.

2、Market bets on the Bank of England to raise interest rates next month by 100 basis points fell to 8% from 25% earlier on Thursday, while bets on a 75 basis point rate hike rose to 92%.

3、Thursday's data showed that the total annualized number of home sales in September fell for the eighth consecutive month, which was the longest continuous decline since 2007; last week's U.S. initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell to a three-week low instead of rising. The data increased the likelihood that the Fed will continue to aggressively raise interest rates.

4、Swaps linked to the Fed's interest rate meeting date priced in a terminal rate of 5% for the Fed's current round of rate hikes.

5、The New York Times reported that St. Louis Fed President Bullard spoke at a private event hosted by Citigroup on Friday, in which he talked about U.S. monetary policy and economic activity, which Fed regulators noted may have violated the Fed's communication guidelines.

6、The EU leaders' summit kicked off on Thursday for two days.

7、Trafigura, one of the world's largest commodities traders, warned that global copper stocks have fallen to dangerously low levels.

8、The EU decided to take measures against Iranian entities that provided drones to Russia, announcing sanctions against three Iranian individuals and one entity.

9、U.S. White House Chief of Staff Klain said that U.S. oil production will reach a record high in 2023.

10、Suspicious drones have been spotted flying near water stations and other important security facilities in southwest Finland, the government urged citizens to remain vigilant, according to a release from the government's Southwest Regional Administration.

11、Fitch: European wholesale gas prices look set to remain high for some time, and a return to 2021 levels is highly unlikely.

12、Local time on the 20th, a number of large Russian banks began to significantly increase interest rates on ruble deposits, including Credit Bank of Moscow, Gazprombank, Bank of Agriculture of Russia and Industrial Communications Bank.

13、According to the Washington Post, Musk plans to lay off 75% of the staff at Twitter. Even if Musk's acquisition is not successful, Twitter may still lay off quarter of its employees.

Institutional Perspective

——MHMarkets ETA

1. ING: Further Fed rate hikes will keep the dollar strong

2. ING: Risks to the Canadian dollar seem slightly skewed to the upside 

3. Credit Suisse: the dollar against the yen is close to breaking the key point of 150

4. Financial website Forexlive: higher inflation is a painful pill for the pound to swallow

5. Danske Bank cut euro against the dollar expectations, predicting a drop to 0.97 within a month

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