World Gold Council May ETF Report

At the beginning of each month, the World Gold Council releases its latest monthly Gold ETF holdings report, offering valuable insights into global capital flows into and out of gold. As we enter May, the report reveals that the average daily trading volume of gold dropped significantly—down 18% from the previous month—signaling cooling interest in gold-related assets. This decline in activity has prompted some investors to lock in profits at elevated price levels.

Chart 1: Net Outflows in May Mark End of Five-Month Buying Streak

In May, global gold ETF flows turned negative, with net outflows totaling $1.8 billion. North America led the exodus with $1.5 billion in outflows, followed by Asia at $489 million. Conversely, Europe posted net inflows of $225 million. As a result, total assets under management (AUM) in global gold ETFs declined by 1% to $374 billion. Gold ETF holdings fell by 19 tonnes, bringing the total to 3,541 tonnes.

(Source: World Gold Council)

Chart 2: North America and Asia Shift to Net Selling, While Europe Buys

The second chart illustrates a shift in sentiment from the two previously bullish regions—North America and Asia—both turning to net sellers in May. This was likely driven by easing U.S.-China trade tensions and weakening gold prices, which dampened investor enthusiasm compared to the previous five months.

(Source: World Gold Council)

Its worth noting that although the eurozone showed a rise in gold ETF inflows, the UK continued to reduce its holdings for the second straight month.

While gold‘s price decline in May wasn’t particularly steep, its important to highlight that the slowdown in trading volume coincided with reduced bullish momentum. Higher prices led to increased profit-taking, yet there was no major wave of panic selling to push prices sharply lower.

Bullish Case: Stagflation Expectations Fuel Gold Optimism

One of the main arguments supporting golds upside comes from rising concerns about stagflation. As shown in Chart 3, market consensus expects U.S. GDP to continue declining, while CPI is projected to rise further due to tariff pass-through effects. The unemployment rate is forecast at 4.54%.

(Source: World Gold Council)

Despite these projections, we remain cautious about the World Gold Council‘s narrative. The likelihood of stagflation in the U.S. remains low, making this thesis a rather fragile foundation for gold’s continued rally.

In contrast, risk assets are becoming increasingly attractive due to the productivity boost from AI developments, which has brightened overall market sentiment for higher-yielding assets.

Gold Technical Analysis

• Intraday View: During the Asia session, the downtrend from the previous day is expected to continue. The daily candlestick closed as a bearish engulfing pattern.

• Trading Strategy: Now may be an ideal time to look for short-swing entry points. The upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) release could act as a catalyst for further downside.

• Technical Commentary: On the daily chart, the bearish engulfing candle pattern suggests a short bias. Key resistance levels are identified at 3363 / 3371 / 3378, based on Fibonacci confluence. Below this zone, selling is favored. A breakout above this level would invalidate short setups. No fixed support level is recommended for exit strategy.

• Support: 3339

• Resistance: 3363 / 3371 / 3378

Risk Disclaimer: The views, analysis, price levels, and other information presented here are intended solely for general market commentary and do not represent the official position of this platform. All readers are responsible for their own trading decisions. Please proceed with caution.