Market Rebound as Geopolitical Tensions Ease; Volatile Swings in Oil and Gold

Market Overview

Irans retaliatory strike on U.S. military bases proved less severe than markets had feared, prompting a swift decline in risk-off sentiment. After a brief intraday plunge, all three major U.S. stock indexes rebounded sharply, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing at their highest levels in nearly a week.

Dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials sent Treasury prices higher, with the 10-year yield dropping more than 10 basis points from its daily peak. The U.S. Dollar Index initially touched a three-week high before reversing lower.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump called for lower oil prices, intensifying downward pressure on crude. As concerns over Irans actions subsided, oil prices plunged more than 10% from their intraday highs. Gold saw a temporary rebound, pulling back from its one-week low, but later gave up gains as risk appetite recovered.

Hot Topics Ahead

● Iran Targets U.S. Bases in Qatar

Iran launched missile strikes on U.S. military installations in both Iraq and Qatar, claiming to have used “powerful and devastating” missiles in the Qatar attack—reportedly matching the scale of the U.S. bombing of Irans nuclear facilities. Notably, no energy infrastructure was targeted.

Media reports suggest the U.S. received early notice of the attack, and Trump later thanked Iran for the “advance warning,” noting that no Americans were harmed. He added that if Iran has “responded” sufficiently, perhaps the two sides can move toward peace.

● Fed Vice Chair Signals Support for July Rate Cut

Following Fed Governor Wallers recent endorsement of a July rate cut, Governor Bowman stated she would support lowering rates as early as July—if inflation remains contained.

According to Fed watcher Nick Timiraos, Bowman‘s stance marks a significant shift, as she had previously emphasized inflation risks. Among Fed officials who have spoken since last week’s meeting, the first to openly support a July cut are both appointees from Trumps first term.

Key Events to Watch (GMT+8)

• 20:30 – US Q1 Current Account Balance (USD billions)

• 21:00 – US April FHFA House Price Index (MoM)

• US April S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index (YoY, NSA)

• 21:30 – FOMC 2026 Voter & Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester Speaks on Monetary Policy

• 22:00 – US June Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index

• US June Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

• Fed Chair Powell Delivers Semiannual Monetary Policy Testimony to the FSOC