Daily Market Watch

Market Overview

Previous analysis achieved high accuracy: 7 of 10 directional and S&R calls succeeded in prior session, dominated by broad USD weakness validating bullish forecasts or containing action within S&R levels.

Risk currencies GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD biases validated with Bullish moves, reflecting USD weakness and risk-on sentiment; AUD/USD, NZD/USD showed strong gains.

Four pairs stayed within key S&R: Gold, Silver (Neutral/Bearish forecasts) rallied but halted below Resistance 3,890.00 and 47.49; DXY (Neutral/Consolidation), EUR/USD (Neutral/Bearish) respected Support 97.4 and Resistance 1.1780, confirming range consolidation.

Failures stemmed from USD weakness breaking Support levels: Neutral/Bullish biases for USD/JPY, USD/CHF, USD/CAD contradicted by sharp Down moves, missing holds at 147.00, 0.9350, 1.3780 due to unaccounted US policy shift magnitude.

Spot On / Accurate: XAUUSD, XAGUSD, DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD

Missed / Contradicted: USDJPY, USDCHF, USDCAD

Market Analysis

GOLD

Gold ended prior session with strong demand post-bullish move, closing near highs indicating buyer control from safe-haven flows amid USD weakness and geopolitical uncertainty. Expect breather before next upside leg.

Overhead resistance: 3,895 (1-hour high). Support: 3,856 (structure key).

Bias: Consolidation/Slightly Bullish, with upside-tilted ranging as gains digest.

SILVER

Silver closed firm after advance, absorbing volatility and poised for continuation; strong close validates upward trend via industrial and safe-haven support.

Ceiling: 48.30 (1-hour resistance). Support: 47.70.

Outlook: Bullish, targeting nearest resistance.

DXY

DXY ended week bearishly with sustained downside, validating dovish Fed expectations and political selling pressure; positioned for further decline.

Recovery barrier: 97.95 (short-term resistance). Floor: 97.50.

Bias: Bearish, continuing downtrend per fundamentals.

GBPUSD

GBP/USD extended upward path vs. USD, confirming buyer conviction for push to higher resistance early week.

Overhead resistance: 1.3490 (recent high). Support: 1.3450 (psychological floor).

Outlook: Bullish, continuing to next target.

AUDUSD

AUD/USD held bullish momentum on USD weakness, supported by risk-on and Greenback decline.

Resistance: 0.6615 (near-term). Support: 0.6580 (prior S&R).

Bias: Bullish, with upward continuation.

NZDUSD

NZD/USD advanced decisively, topping G10 performers; closing strength signals conviction for overhead breach attempt.

Ceiling: 0.5845 (1-hour resistance). Support: 0.5815.

Outlook: Bullish, with momentum sustaining resistance challenge.

EURUSD

EUR/USD showed subdued action with slight gain, holding tight range despite DXY weakness; lacks conviction, likely staying contained directionally.

Resistance: 1.1755. Support: 1.1718.

Bias: Consolidating/Slightly Bullish, range-bound with upside tilt if DXY selling follows through.

USDJPY

USD/JPY closed week with bearish momentum, confirming USD weakness-driven breakdown; sentiment shift eyes further downside.

Barrier: 147.70 (near-term resistance). Support: 147.25.

Outlook: Bearish, continuing downward pressure.

USDCHF

USD/CHF moved decisively lower, validating USD bearish sentiment; CHF safe-haven and strength dominate Greenback.

Ceiling: 0.7960 (resistance). Support: 0.7925.

Bias: Bearish, with USD weakness pushing to lower support.

USDCAD

USD/CAD ended with downward momentum, continuing bearish path on USD sell-off despite commodity counter-forces.

Resistance: 1.3970 (strong overhead). Support: 1.3920.

Outlook: Bearish, aligning with USD downtrend for further downside.

COT Report Analysis

AUD - WEAK (5/5)

GBP - WEAK (3/5)

CAD - WEAK (5/5)

EUR - STRONG (4/5)

JPY - STRONG (4/5)

CHF - WEAK (3/5)

USD - WEAK (4/5)

NZD - WEAK (4/5)

GOLD - STRONG (5/5)

SILVER - STRONG (5/5)