Mohicans markets ：Recession risk heightens UK rate hike by 50bps Markets expect U.S. job growth to slow

Market Overview

Fundamentals Overview

On Friday, August 5, spot gold failed to test the first resistance at 1795.82 many times during the Asian session. If it breaks through this point in the market outlook, it will further open up the upside. Spot silver is concerned about the first resistance at 20.35. WTI crude oil station is on the pivot point, and the primary resistance is 90.26. The dollar index is hovering near the pivot point. If it is confirmed to stand above 105.93, the first resistance will be 106.06. EUR/USD broke the first support in the short term. GBP/USD breaks the pivot point in the short-term, the main resistance is 1.2176

At 20:30 Beijing time tonight, the U.S. Department of Labor will announce the July non-farm payrolls report and the July unemployment rate. Currently, the market generally expects that the number of new non-farm payrolls will be 250,000, and the unemployment rate will be 3.6%. unchanged from the previous month. Some analysts pointed out that the geopolitical crisis has kept the price of gold rising this week and may break the 1800 mark. But TD Securities forecast strategists said that if the July non-farm payrolls data remains stronger than expected, that could limit the general bullish sentiment for gold.

The Mohicans Markets strategy is for reference only and not as investment advice. Please read the terms of the statement at the end of the article carefully.The following strategies were updated at 16:30 on August 5, 2022, Beijing time.

Technical Point of View

International Gold

High probability scenario   Above 1784.62, bullish

Low probability scenario   Below 1784.62, bearish

Key Point

First support 1775    Second support 1768.94   Third support 1743.98

First resistance 1786.72  Second resistance 1805.21   Third resistance 1815.89 

1825 Bullish increase, bearish unchanged, long target and resistance

1815 Bullish decrease but large stock, bearish decrease, long target

1805 bullish decrease, bearish increase, resistance level before the US market

1796 short-term key point, 1779 bearish increase and bullish unchanged, short-term callback target

1769-1775 bullish decrease, bearish decrease slightly but the stock is large, the key support

1744 bullish decrease, bearish increase, break down the callback target

Technical Analysis

Affected by recession fears on Thursday, gold stepped back up after breaking through the key resistance of 1775, returning to the bullish trend. Judging from the changes in order flow, 1779 added 154 bearish bets, which is expected to be the first correction target in the day. However, due to the large stock of 1769-1774, it is still a key support here, and the short-term break is expected to return to bear dominance. The key below is 1745-1750. Above the current price, 1794 is the most concentrated position of long and short chips in the early stage. It is expected that there will be some contention here, and the breakthrough is expected to see long targets such as 1814 and 1829.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 5th. This is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

Spot silver

High probability scenario  Above 20.25, bullish

Low probability scenario   Below 20.25, bearish

Key Point

First support 20.05 Second support 19.75 Third support 19.51

First resistance 20.35 Second resistance 20.50 Third resistance 20.75 

20.75 The bullishness is slightly reduced and the stock is large, the bearishness is unchanged, the bullish second target 20.5 is less bullish, the bearishness is basically unchanged, the bullish target and resistance level 20.25 The bullish and bearish are slightly increased, the short-term competition position 20 is bullish and reduced but the stock is large, bearish Slight increase, short-term support 19.75, bullish decrease, bearish unchanged, support level 19.5 bullish unchanged, bearish increase, callback target and support level

Technical Analysis

After hitting the 20.5 long target again yesterday, spot silver broke the 20 mark for support. From the perspective of option order flow, 20 is still a prominent position for bullish stock, but there are many bearish bets on 20.1 Masukura, where resistance is more critical. If silver returns to above 20.1 within the day, it may continue to challenge the previous bull target of 20.50.

Below the current price, both the long and short sides of 19.75 have increased their bets and become the key support for the day. Once the position breaks, the next short fall target is at 19.5, which is also the key support for the previous upward trend.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 5th. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

US Crude Oil

High probability scenario  Above 88.85, bullish

Low probability scenario  Below 88.85, bearish

Key Point

First support level 90  Second support level 87.5  Third support level 85.16 (day K)

First resistance 91.50  Second resistance 92.81   Third resistance 95.1 

95 bullish increase, bearish decrease, intraday limit rebound target 92.8 bullish increase, bearish increase and stock dominant, resistance position 91 bullish increase, bearish decrease but stock dominant, rebound target is also resistance position 86.5-87.5 bullish increase, bearish decrease, The downward momentum has been weakened (the Asian plate has been touched) 85 The bullishness is basically unchanged, the bearishness increases, the lower target 80.5 is the bullish unchanged, the bearishness increases significantly, and the bearish target

Technical Analysis

Recession fears have stimulated oil prices to fall below the key support level. Yesterday, crude oil in the US traded back all gains since the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. The bullish sentiment has been destroyed, and the lowest level reached 87.5, the first support after the break. Judging from the changes in order flow, 81-82 added 3,000 bearish bets, and the bearish sentiment was relatively aggressive, but below 88 has entered the annual support-intensive area, and we will pay attention to whether the recessionary sentiment can be further fermented in the day. The first support is 86.5-87.5, and the next target of the broken short will be 85 or even the 80 mark. Compared with the bears betting on the decline below, the bulls betting on the rebound are weaker, but it is not ruled out that there may be a demand for an oversold rebound, but the overall rebound space may be limited. Pay attention to 89 for short-term resistance, and the key resistance in the day is 90-90.7. Stabilizing here may ease the downward pressure on the day. But there is still a strong resistance of 92.8 above, and the ultimate rebound target is 95.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 5th. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

EURUSD

High probability scenario  Above 1.0225, bullish

Low probability scenario  Below 1.0225, bearish

Key Point

First support 1.0225  Second support 1.0175   Third support 1.0150

First resistance 1.0275  Second resistance 1.0300 Third resistance 1.0325

1.0325 bullish increase, bearish increase more, strong resistance 1.0275 bullish increase, bearish increase more, strong resistance 1.02-1.0225 bullish increase,

bearish increase slightly, key support area 1.0175 bullish unchanged, bearish

increase, short target 1.0075-1.0150 Bullish unchanged, bearish reduced,

downtrend energy weakened 1.0050 bullish unchanged, bearish increase, bearish target 1.00 bullish unchanged, bearish increase, bearish target

Technical Analysis

On Thursday, the euro against the dollar successfully broke the 1.02 key level suggested in yesterday's report during the US session, and the upward

momentum was insufficient after rising to 1.0250. After the market opened

today, it continued to be under pressure at 1.0250 and fell into a narrow

range.

Judging from the change in order flow, bearish bets at 1.0175-1.0325 have

increased significantly, which is expected to weaken the upward momentum

in Europe and the United States. Among them, 1.0275 and 1.0325 respectively form a situation of long and short competition, which will constitute a strong resistance. At the same time, 1.03, 1.0350 and 1.04 have signs of call options leaving the market, indicating that the bulls are not optimistic about the

possibility of further upwards.

On the other hand, after Europe and the United States stand at 1.02 again,

1.02-1.0225 will add new call options, which is expected to provide strong

support. If it falls below this range, it is necessary to be alert to further

downside risks. The target is 1.0175 first, followed by 1.01-1.0150. Provide

buffering. In addition, some shorts have increased their bets at the parity level in recent days, and related risks still need to be paid attention to.

GBP/USD

High probability scenario   Above 1.2150, bullish

Low probability scenario  Below 1.2150, bearish

Key Point

First support 1.2120  Second support 1.2107   Third support 1.2068

First resistance 1.2150  Second resistance 1.2200 Third resistance 1.2220 

1.2220 bullish decrease, bearish unchanged, resistance level

1.22 Bullish increase, bearish increase, long target 1.2150 bullish increase, bearish increase, long and short competition, key position 1.21-1.2120 bullish increase and large stock, bearish increase, key support 1.2050-1.2070 bullish unchanged, bearish decrease, support area 1.20 Bullish slightly reduced, bearish increased, bears target

Technical Analysis

Yesterday,on Sunday, the Bank of England announced its interest rate decision, raised interest rates by 50 basis points, and warned that the British economy would fall into recession in the fourth quarter. Affected by this, the pound against the dollar fell rapidly after testing 1.22, and rebounded after the lowest test of 1.2065. After the opening bell today, continued signs of weakness.

Judging from the changes in order flow, the put options around the overnight low of 1.2070 were reduced by 17 lots, which is expected to be a profit for the bears to leave the market. The 1.21-1.2120 range shows a long-short competition, which is expected to provide support. A break below means that the short-term bulls are defeated; 1.2150 is also in a confrontation between long and short, which is expected to constitute an upward resistance. Upside potential is limited.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 5th. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

AUD/USD

High probability scenario   Below 0.6970, bearish

Small probability scenario  Above 0.6970, bullish

Key Point

First support 0.6950  Second support 0.6925    Third support 0.6900

First resistance 0.6975  Second resistance 0.7015  Third resistance 0.7048 

0.7050 bullish decrease, see slightly increase, resistance position 0.70 bullish decrease, bearish unchanged, resistance position 0.6975 bullish increase, bearish unchanged, short-term rebound target 0.6925-0.6950 bullish unchanged, bearish increase, short-term down target 0.69 bullish unchanged, The bearishness is reduced, and the downward movement is weakened. 0.6850-0.6875 The bullishness is unchanged, the bearishness is slightly reduced, and the trend is the key support

Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar rose against the US dollar because of the decline in the US dollar, but commodity currencies generally lag behind in the recession stage. In the absence of a clear direction for the US dollar, Australia and the United States fell into a wide range of 0.6890-0.7050. Judging from the order flow, bearish funds below 0.69 continue to leave, while bullish funds above 0.70 also choose to leave, which also reflects the possibility of wide fluctuations in the Australian dollar range. As highlighted in the past few days, Australia and the United States need to get back above 0.70 before the rally restarts. Resistance above 0.70 focuses on 0.7030-0.7050. The short-term support below is 0.6950, and then the lower edge of the range supports 0.6890. The key support of the trend is still 0.6850-0.6875, and the broken position will look at 0.68.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 5th. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

(The above analysis only represents the analyst's opinion and does not provide any investment advice, and does not assume any responsibility for any loss or damage caused by any direct or indirect transaction risks, losses or gains related to any personal investment.)