Abstract:On Friday, November 18, the dollar index in the European shares in the morning session to refresh the daily low fell below 106.40; in the U.S. stocks at midday to get rid of the decline approaching 107, but by the end of the day failed to recover the mark, closing up 0.26% at 106.97, up two days in a row, ending a four-week losing streak.
November 21, 2022-Fundamental Reminder
☆ 09:15 China announces one-year Loan Prime Rate(LPR) until November 21.
☆ 15:00 Germany announces the monthly rate of PPI for October.
☆ The following day at 03:30 New York crude oil December futures complete the last trading on the floor.
Market Overview
Review of Global Market Trend
On Friday, November 18, the dollar index in the European shares in the morning session to refresh the daily low fell below 106.40; in the U.S. stocks at midday to get rid of the decline approaching 107, but by the end of the day failed to recover the mark, closing up 0.26% at 106.97, up two days in a row, ending a four-week losing streak.
10-year U.S. bond yields fell below 3.75% during the day, then turned up to close at 3.83%; 2-year U.S. bond yields fell below 4.45% during the day, U.S. stocks rose above 4.53% in late trading. 2-year and 10-year U.S. bond yield differential expanded to about -70 basis points during the day, continuing to brush the largest yield inversion in 1982.
Spot gold fell below the $1,750 mark during the day and closed barely holding it, down 0.55% at $1,750.87 per ounce; spot silver was down a modest 0.03% at $20.95 per ounce.
Crude oil fell sharply in intraday, with U.S. oil once falling 5% to break below the $77 mark and Brent crude falling as low as $86 per barrel, before the two oils rebounded, with WTI crude eventually closing down 2.33% at $80.14 per barrel; Brent crude closed down 2.39% at $88.67 per barrel.
U.S. stocks performed relatively quietly, with $2.1 trillion in option expirations not triggering much market volatility. The Dow closed up 0.59%, the S&P 500 closed up 0.48% and the Nasdaq closed near flat. The energy sector was the top decliner, with the utilities and medical sectors performing better.
European stocks generally closed up, Germany's DAX30 index closed up 1.16%, the FTSE 100 index closed up 0.54%, France's CAC40 index closed up 1.04%, the European Stoxx 50 index closed up 1.20%, Spain's IBEX35 index closed up 1.05%, Italy's FTSE MIB index closed up 1.38%.
Hot spots in the market
1. Five people were killed and 25 others were injured in the nightclub shooting incident in Colorado on the evening of the 19th.
2. FTX owes nearly $3.1 billion to the top 50 largest creditors and more than $226 million to its largest unsecured creditors.
3. Malaysia held the general election for the first time with a “Hung Parliament”.
4. The agreement finally concluded that COP27 set up a “Loss and Damage” fund, and the UAE took over COP28.
5. World Cup: Qatar lost two goals to Ecuador, and the “unbeaten rule of the host country in the first game” is dead.
Geopolitical situation
Conflict situation:
1. The Ukraine military “Haima” rocket fired three shells at Ilowaisk, located in Donetsk.
2. On the 20th local time, Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, and Kyiv, Nikolayev and Odessa states issued air defense alerts.
3. The Ministry of National Defense of Russia announced that since the launch of special military operations against Ukraine, the Russian army has destroyed 333 planes and 177 helicopters in total.
4. Russia and Ukraine both said that the Zapolo nuclear power plant was shelled by the other party. Russian nuclear power operator: Uzbek military fired artillery shells near the dry storage site of Zaboro nuclear power plant, and no nuclear radiation has been detected at present. Ukraine National Nuclear Power Company: The Russian military shelled the Zapolo nuclear power plant on Sunday morning, and the infrastructure was attacked at least 12 times.
Energy situation:
1. According to Der Spiegel, Germany, the floating LNG terminal will be more expensive, and the operating cost will increase by 3.5 billion euros.
2. The Ministry of Energy of Ukraine once again urged the Ukrainian people to reduce their electricity consumption and store warm clothing, thermos bottles, water, food and other materials.
Institutional Perspective
1. Goldman Sachs:The Federal Reserve of Australia is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at each meeting before May next year.
2. SOCIETE GENERALE:S&P 500 is expected to rebound to its 200 day moving average.
3. MUFG:New Zealand dollar and Swedish krona are expected to improve before the central bank meeting.
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Spot gold weakened slightly during the Asian session on Thursday (April 6), hitting a two-day low of $2007.89 per ounce and now trading near $2014.15. A series of weak economic data has fueled fears of an impending recession in the US, giving safe-haven support to the dollar. And some dollar shorts took profits, and gold bulls also took profits ahead of Good Friday and the non-farm payrolls data, putting pressure on gold prices.
On Wednesday, as the less-than-expected March "ADP" data and non-manufacturing PMI data fueled market concerns about an economic slowdown and spurred bets that the Federal Reserve could slow interest rate hikes. Spot gold continued to brush a new high since March last year, which was the highest intraday to $2032.13 per ounce, and then retracted most of the day's gains, finally closing up 0.01% at $2020.82 per ounce; spot silver hovered around $25 during the day, finally closing down 0.21% at $2
Spot gold oscillated slightly lower during the Asian session on Tuesday (April 4) and is currently trading around $1980.13 per ounce. The dollar index rebounded mildly after a big drop overnight, putting pressure on gold prices. However, this week will see the non-farm payrolls report, there is no important economic data out on Tuesday, and the market wait-and-see sentiment is getting stronger.
On Monday, in OPEC + members unexpectedly cut production reignited market concerns about long-term inflation and sparked uncertainty about the Fed's response, the dollar index once up to the 103 mark, and then on a "vertical roller coaster", giving back all the gains of the day and once lost 102 mark, finally closed down 0.53% at 102.04; U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rose and then fell, as data showed that the U.S. economy continues to slow, it fell sharply in the U.S. session, and once to a low