Mohicans markets：MHM Today’s News

December 5, 2022-Fundamental Reminder

☆ 09:45 China releases Caixin Services PMI for November.

☆ 09:45 ECB President Lagarde delivers a speech. In her last speech, she said the ECB has not set any exchange rate target and is closely monitoring the appreciation of the dollar.

☆ 17:00 Eurozone publishes final value of services PMI for November.

☆ 18:00 Eurozone releases monthly rate of retail sales for October.

☆ 22:45 U.S. releases final value of Markit Services PMI for November.

☆ 23:00 U.S. releases ISM non-manufacturing PMI for November.

MHMarkets -Market Overview

Review of Global Market Trend

On Friday, December 2, the U.S. November non-farm payrolls data far exceeded expectations, making the market more worried about the Fed's monetary tightening will remain longer; the dollar index, which hit a five-month low during the day, quickly turned up, but turned down after a sharp rise to 105.61, finally closing down 0.22% at 104.51. The offshore yuan approached 7.00 during the day to hit a new high of more than two months.

U.S. bond yields also rose and then fell, 2-year U.S. bond yields rose more than 20 basis points to 4.41% during the day, but in the U.S. stock market at midday to give back most of the gains, closing at 4.27%; 10-year U.S. bond yields rose more than 10 basis points to 3.64%, and then turned down to 3.49%.

Commodities had fallen sharply due to the pressure of the dollar rebound, spot gold once fell from above 1800 to near 1778, and then pulled up sharply to approach the 1800 mark again, finally closing down 0.29% at $1797.75/oz. Spot silver fell to 22.26 after a sharp spike to break through the $23 barrier, eventually closing up 1.73% at $23.15 per ounce.

U.S. crude oil and Brent crude oil had fallen more than 2% during the day, with WTI crude oil breaking below the $80 mark intraday, closing down 1.45% at $80.21 per barrel; Brent crude oil forced under the $85 mark, closing down 1.26% at $85.90 per barrel. Continental Europe TTF benchmark Dutch natural gas futures closed down 2.73%, closing lower for the second straight day, but still up for the third straight week last week. U.S. NYMEX January natural gas futures closed down 6.78 percent at $6.2810 per million British thermal units, down for a third straight day and down more than 14 percent last week.

The three major U.S. stock indexes all opened lower, down more than 1% in early trading, but staged a major reversal during the day and ended up, the Dow turned red and closed up 0.1%, after having fallen more than 300 points. The Nasdaq closed down 0.18%, and the S&P 500 index fell 0.12%.

European stocks, except for German stock indexes, generally closed lower. Germany's DAX30 index closed up 0.27%, the FTSE 100 index closed down 0.01%, France's CAC40 index closed down 0.17%, the Euro Stoxx 50 index closed down 0.17%, Spain's IBEX35 index closed down 0.30%, Italy's FTSE MIB index closed down 0.30%.

Hot spots in the market

1. The OPEC+Ministerial Conference decided to keep the oil output policy unchanged, that is, to reduce production by 2 million barrels per day until the end of 2023. The meeting did not discuss measures to cap Russian oil prices.

2. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak: Even if it is necessary to reduce production, Russia will not sell oil to countries that implement price limits. Relevant mechanisms and response mechanisms are being developed.

3. At 03:24 on the 5th, a magnitude 6.7 earthquake occurred in the Tonga Islands, with the focal depth of 40 km.

4. Europe and the United States have serious differences over the inflation reduction bill. The largest party group of the European Parliament said that if the United States insists on not making concessions, it will adopt the “nuclear option”.

5. Indonesian authorities have raised the warning level of the eruption of Semeru volcano to the highest level of “Level 4”, and nearly 2000 residents have been evacuated.

6. The global strike in many places continued: the French railway operation was affected, the UK said it was considering using the army, and the President of South Korea would hold a meeting on the strike of truck drivers.

Geopolitical situation

Conflict situation:

1. The spokesman said that two explosions were heard in Zaporoge under the control of Ukraine, and then the alarm was activated.

2. Source: Ukraine plans to blow up the ammonia storage facilities of Odessa Port Factory, and blames the explosion on Russia, in order to prevent Russia from exporting to other countries.

3. The Ukrainian army used the “Haima” rocket to bombard the city of Alchevsk, Lugansk.

4. Kremlin spokesman Peskov: Putin will visit Donbas at an “appropriate time”.

5. The Russian Ministry of Defense announced that the Russian armed forces had successfully attacked Altemovsk.

6. Makron: If Putin agrees to the peace talks, the West should consider Russia's security needs.

Energy situation:

1. Deputy Prime Minister Novak of Russia: If necessary, Russia is prepared to reduce production under the condition of price ceiling (implemented by the West); Oil will not be sold to countries that implement price limiting measures.

2. Zelensky: The upper limit of Russian oil price in western countries is “weak”.

3. Deputy Prime Minister of Moldova: Before December 20, Moldova will not pay 50% of the advance payment for December's natural gas to Gazprom.

4. The Australian government requires states to implement coal price caps.

MHMarkets-Institutional Perspective

1. Goldman Sachs：Bonds seem to be the first choice of asset management companies again

2. SOCIETE GENERALE：The recent rebound in US debt may not indicate an improvement in the situation

3. MUFG：The data strength needs to be impressive to significantly boost the US dollar

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