Financial Updates Today

Breaking News

Israel announces that itwill respond to Iran. They will choose their response accordingly. The question remains: how and when？

The White House pushes Israel to not take things too far.

This threat from Iran is also concerning for France and Europe.

General Market Overview

The IMF expects resilient global economic growth to expand at 3.2%, on par with what we saw last year. AI is promising but has a lot of uncertainty. It is still too early to say if it can carry growth.

They also mention that developments in the Middle East will have important implications for the world. As of now, we do not see a conflict over rising oil prices. It is not there yet. We have to wait and see how this develops.

According to the IMF, inflation trends are promising in the US, but there are reasons to remain vigilant. This year will be tougher than last year. However,the IMF continues to believe that inflation will come down. It would be prudent to wait for data to come out before making rate cuts. The process for rate cuts may take longer. It is a strong economy; thus, they must wait to see how inflation will take place.

The IMF also mentions that productivity in the US is strong and good, proving that the economy is good. That is the reason why the US is going to be competent in global trade.

Inflation has been going down in the EUR area. There is a good realm for the ECB to cut in June. It is harder in the US; inflation is more stubborn. The FED needs to see more data before cutting rates. We may expect them to wait and see it pushed later in the year.

US10Y bond yields are still rising in the face of expectations in inflation, closing at +1.35% yesterday and running on +0.26% at the time of writing.

The USD has to watch its 2022 high. It is good to be skeptical of USD strength as gold is creating new highs. While it would not go down right away, it is currently fueled by delayed rate cuts.

Stocks are mixed after seeing the S&P500 experience the worst 2-day drop in over a year. However, depending on the index, we do get a 3-5% correction on average each year historically. At this point, we can consider it healthy and in oversold conditions. We may see good earnings come through as economic data are stronger with good labor markets, and we may expect good earnings.

GOLD -The gold rally continues to look healthy, as the retracement down was within our expectations and is giving us space to enter a better spot. With the current movement progressing well, we can expect to see gold move beyond the 2392.470 hourly structure. Currently, it is being supported by the hourly structure at 2365.743.

SILVER -With silver still looking at a rally, we can expect to see prices bounce off the support at 28.073, break beyond 29.018, and enter the structure at 29.900. While silver candrop below our expected levels of retracement at 27.095 and 26.963, we view silver very positively.

DXY -It is true that we must remain vigilant of USD strength, as it is fueled by inflation expectations brought by delayed rate cuts, as some analysts agreed. It is also important to note that, usually, we see the gold and the dollar as being inversely related. When comparing the two, the DXY rally is not the highest it‘s ever been. It hasn’t even reached the 2022 highs. Meanwhile, gold is currently creating new highs. This may mean that investors are getting into gold and are looking into preserving their wealth. Or that the supply of gold is being preserved by increasing its price.

While there is a slight slowdown on the DXY rally, we can note that the price is still being supported by two hourly structures at 106.236 and 106.111 while resistingat 106.394. We view a bullish DXY to creep closer or onto the 106.848.

Despite the market moving to our expectations overall, it is still important to note that sudden changes depending on the conflict in the Middle East or sudden sentiment shifts brought by other factors may occur.

GBPUSD - The GBP against the dollar is now being supported by the hourly structure at 1.24268. Lower highs are beingcreated as a bearish pennant has been made. We can expect to see a break into the 1.23720.

AUDUSD - We are viewing the AUD to be a healthy bearish trend against the USD as we witness two hourly structures resisting prices at 0.64086 and 0.64292. While there is a plausibility for prices to retrace back into the daily structure at 0.64427, we view the AUD to go into the monthly structure at 0.63407.

NZDUSD -The price has broken through the daily structure at 0.58856 but is currently being resisted at 0.58994. However, may expect to see a retracement higher before a drop to0.58166.

EURUSD -Prices are being supported by the 1.06227 hourly structure while creating lower heights. We still view a bearish movement and into the 1.04672 as people look positively into Inflation projections and the ECB June rate cuts.

USDJPY - The JPY still shows a weak strength as USD gains the upper hand. We see that the price is, yet again, stuck in between two tight hourly structures at 154.430 and 154.771. We view USDJPY to be very bullish and break throughthis structure. It is still notable that prices may pull back to fill in orders and give us a better entry point.

USDCHF -Prices are currently playing around the hourly structure at 0.91036 and 0.91473 and the middle point of the hourly channel. We can see as well that the prices are creating higher lowsand a bullish pennant. We can expect to see a breakthrough soon as we view USDCHF to still be bullish.

USDCAD -We can see USDCAD moving into expected zones as we expect to see prices to break above the daily structure at 1.38402 while being supported by the daily structure at 1.37881.