Dollar Eases as Trade War Concerns Resurface Amid Mixed U.S. Data

Key Takeaways:

*U.S. Appeals Court paused the block on Trumps global tariffs, reviving trade war fears and geopolitical uncertainty.

*Dollar Index retreated after hitting resistance, pressured by mixed U.S. economic data and declining risk appetite.

Market Summary:

Trade war tensions have re-emerged after a U.S. federal appeals court temporarily paused the recent decision to block former President Donald Trumps global tariff strategy. On Thursday, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit issued a stay order, delaying the lower court's earlier ruling that deemed Trump had overstepped his authority in implementing reciprocal trade tariffs. This pause, effective until at least June 9, allows both parties time to submit legal arguments regarding the future of the appeal.

The legal uncertainty has rekindled fears of renewed trade friction, reversing the initial wave of risk-on sentiment and weighing on the U.S. dollar. Markets had previously welcomed the lower courts ruling as a step toward easing global trade tensions. However, the latest development signals that tariff disputes remain unresolved and may once again become a geopolitical and economic flashpoint.

On the data front, the U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, pulled back after testing a key resistance level. This retreat was driven by weaker-than-expected macroeconomic figures. U.S. GDP contracted by an annualized 0.2% in Q1, performing slightly better than the consensus of -0.3%, but still highlighting underlying economic softness. The contraction was largely attributed to a surge in imports, fueled by tariff fears, without a matching increase in domestic consumption or inventory investment.

Additionally, Initial Jobless Claims rose to 240K, higher than the expected 229K and the prior reading of 226K, further dampening sentiment toward the dollar.

Technical Analysis – Dollar_Index

Dollar_,index, 4-Hour Chart:

The Dollar Index remains under pressure, trading near a critical support level at 98.90. The MACD indicator signals increasing bearish momentum, while the RSI hovers at 45, remaining below the neutral 50 line—indicating potential for continued downside movement.

A confirmed break below 98.90 could open the door for further losses toward the next support level at 98.00. Conversely, if the index holds this support, a rebound toward the 100.55 resistance level may occur, with consolidation likely between established support and resistance zones.

Resistance Levels: 100.55, 101.90

Support Levels: 98.90, 98.00