Gold Rebounds as Weak U.S. Economic Data Fuels Rate Cut Bets

Key Takeaways:

• ADP Nonfarm Employment misses sharply, adding to signs of labor market softening

• ISM Services PMI slips below 50, pointing to contraction in the services sector

• Treasury yields and the U.S. Dollar fall on rising Fed rate cut expectations

• Gold gains on safe-haven demand amid growth fears and debt ceiling concerns

Market Summary:

Gold prices climbed in early trading hours, supported by a broad decline in the U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. Dollar following a batch of downbeat economic data. The ADP Nonfarm Employment Change printed at just 37K, sharply missing consensus expectations of 111K and marking the slowest pace of job creation in over two years. The U.S. ISM Services PMI also disappointed, falling to 49.9, below the key 50-threshold and pointing to a contraction in service sector activity.

Investor anxiety is growing ahead of Friday‘s official Nonfarm Payrolls release, with consensus pointing to a gain of 125,000 jobs and an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.2%. Meanwhile, the Fed’s Beige Book indicated that economic activity has “slightly weakened” in recent weeks, raising the probability of a Fed rate cut later this year.

U.S. 10-year Treasury yields tumbled 10 basis points, marking their lowest level in nearly a month. The slide in yields and broad-based risk aversion helped lift gold prices, with additional support from global macro uncertainties, including the OECDs downgrade of global growth projections and concerns over U.S. fiscal imbalances.

Technical Analysis

GOLD, H4:

Gold is trading higher, currently testing key resistance at 3390.00, as safe-haven demand strengthens. The MACD is attempting a bullish crossover, while the RSI has firmed to 60, suggesting upward momentum is intact.

A confirmed breakout above 3390.00 could pave the way for a rally toward the next resistance at 3415.00. On the downside, immediate support lies at 3345.00, followed by 3315.00 if correction pressure emerges.

Resistance Levels: 3390.00, 3415.00

Support Levels: 3345.00, 3315.00