GBPUSD Analysis: Pound Finally Fell Back

In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of the GBPUSD for June 17th, 2025.

Fundamental Analysis of GBPUSDGBPUSD Key Takeaways

• The return of the dollar‘s safe-haven status: After Israel launched an attack on Iran and triggered Iran’s retaliation, investors re-bought the US dollar, and the US dollar recorded its largest single-day gain in a month. The US dollar is returning to its traditional safe-haven role, but if the situation eases over the weekend, this boost may not last long.

• BOE rate decision: The number of employed people in the UK in May fell by the largest amount since 2020, and the Bank of England still expects two interest rate cuts this year. The market is paying attention to the wording of the Bank of England tomorrow on whether there is forward guidance for interest rate cuts in the third and fourth quarters.

Technical Analysis of GBPUSDGBPUSD Daily Chart Insights

• MA signal: The EMA MA system is still in a bullish arrangement overall, indicating that the markets upward trend foundation since the beginning of the year is still there. However, the price has clearly fallen below the purple 13EMA recently and is seeking support from below. The recent candlesticks have large real bodies, indicating that the short-term strength has increased and the market is in a correction phase for the previous rise.

• Key support area: The red horizontal lines 1.34344 and 1.34637 constitute a crucial support area. This area was a strong resistance in September 2024 and April 2025, and turned into support after being broken (“resistance becomes support”). Whether this area can be held is crucial to the future direction.

GBPUSD 2-hour Chart Analysis

• Stochastic oscillator: The indicators have all penetrated into the extremely oversold area below 20. At present, the %K line has a slight upward hook and is trying to cross the %D line. The golden cross signal formed in the extremely oversold area usually indicates that the market may have a technical rebound or a decline in momentum in the short term, especially when the price hits an important support level.

• MA signal: The three MAs currently form a clear short arrangement signal. After breaking through these key MAs, the price accelerated downward. At present, all MAs are above the price, forming layers of resistance.

GBPUSD Pivot Indicator

• According to the trading central in Ultima Markets APP, the central price of the day is established at 1.3490,

• Bullish Scenario: Bullish sentiment prevails above 1.3490, first target 1.3535, second target 1.3580;

• Bearish Outlook: In a bearish scenario below 1.3490, first target 1.3390, second target 1.3340.

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