DBG Markets: Market Report for Jul 31, 2025

MARKET ANALYSIS

GOLD

Front-month gold futures settled lower as the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.25-4.5%, a move that was widely anticipated by market watchers. Fed Chair Jerome Powell resisted pressure to lower rates, and while two other governors dissented, the committee held firm. Analysts are forecasting a potential rate cut in September, though this is far from certain.

Prices fell sharply early in yesterday's session and continued lower through the New York session following the Fed's decision. The MACD and RSI reflect strong bearish momentum and volume. With the U.S. Dollar's strength now dominating the market, we expect and will look for more selling opportunities in the coming days.

SILVER

The Fed's decision also impacted Silver, pulling prices lower and shifting the overall market momentum to bearish. The MACD and RSI indicate significant strength in selling momentum and volume. We are now looking for more selling opportunities.

DXY

The Dollar is testing its highs near 99.919, propelled by increased bullish strength as reflected in the RSI and MACD. This rally was expected, as the Fed's decision to hold rates signals confidence in the U.S. economy and reinforces the central bank's independence from political pressure.

Prior economic data has shown underlying strength, suggesting that lowering rates is not a necessity at this time. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a September rate cut currently stands at 42.1%. This expectation will be updated as the full set of July data is released through August.

For now, geopolitical concerns have taken a backseat to monetary policy. While the ceasefire between Israel and Iran remains fragile and tensions in Ukraine are high, markets appear to have largely priced in these risks, assuming minimal direct U.S. involvement.

GBPUSD

The Pound is moving lower as bearish momentum continues to build. Both the RSI and the MACD reflect this selling pressure. After a short retracement, prices resumed their decline. We will continue to look for selling opportunities as the August 1st tariff deadline approaches.

AUDUSD

The Aussie dollar is trading near 0.64427. The MACD and RSI show increasing bearish momentum and volume, and the overall price action has shifted to a selling bias. We will continue to look for more selling opportunities.

NZDUSD

The Kiwi has broken below the key 0.59400 level. The MACD and RSI reflect this bearish sentiment, increasing the probability of a continued sell-off. We will look for more bearish opportunities in the coming days.

EURUSD

There seems to be little stopping the Euro's descent as it finds renewed bearish strength in both momentum and volume. This is confirmed by the MACD and RSI. We expect further selling to continue and will look for more bearish opportunities.

USDJPY

The USD/JPY pair is maintaining its bullish momentum, with the RSI and the MACD reflecting this upward movement. Overall, market narratives are centered on the strength of the dollar. Traders are now awaiting the Bank of Japan's policy decision later today for any hints from Governor Kazuo Ueda about another potential rate hike this year. A brief retracement lower before a continuation higher is possible.

USDCHF

The Franc's weakness remains evident as the U.S. Dollar continues to reign over other currencies. The MACD and RSI show increased growth in bullish strength for the USD/CHF pair. We expect further buying opportunities.

USDCAD

The CAD has also weakened, with the USD/CAD pair rising with renewed strength. Interestingly, the MACD and RSI remain relatively subdued despite the strong price rally, which can suggest powerful underlying momentum. We will continue to look for more buying opportunities.