DBG Markets: Market Report for Oct 03, 2025

Gold Faces Short-term Pullback Risk, Oil Under Heavy Pressure

U.S. Dollar: Rebound but Still Fragile

The U.S. Dollar staged a rebound yesterday after four consecutive days of losses, as markets recalibrated following the ADPs downside surprise in job data. The sharp drop in private-sector employment reinforced concerns about labor market weakness, particularly as the official Nonfarm Payrolls report is likely to be delayed due to the shutdown.

Despite the short-lived rebound, multiple private labor indicators — including ADP — clearly point to slowing job growth. This suggests that while the dollar may find temporary support, its upside momentum remains limited.

USD Index, H4 Chart

The dollar has regained above the 97.50 level, but uncertainty lingers. On the 4-hour chart, the EMA setup still reflects a bearish crossover, keeping the broader tone cautious.

While near-term rebounds are possible, the next major resistance sits in the 98.00–98.50 zone, which may cap further upside unless momentum strengthens decisively.

Gold: Risk Rally Faces Resistance

Gold continues to stand out as a key beneficiary in the current risk-off landscape, supported by safe-haven demand amid the U.S. shutdown, weak jobs data, and ongoing Fed easing expectations. However, near-term momentum is showing signs of strain. Yesterdays attempt to retest record highs was rejected, leaving gold vulnerable to a possible pullback.

XAU/USD, H1 Chart

On the 1-hour chart, a potential double top pattern has formed near record highs, hinting that upside momentum may be capped for now. The break below the $3,870–$3,855 key zone — where prior highs failed to flip into support — reinforces the risk of near-term weakness. Immediate supports to watch lie at $3,825 and $3,800.

XAU/USD, Daily Chart

On the daily view, the last two candlesticks show caution: one with a long upper wick and the next forming a spinning top — both patterns signal indecision between buyers and sellers.

With gold hovering near the highs, this price action suggests that buying pressure may be fading, opening the door to a potential corrective pullback after the recent strong rally.

Oil Faces Headwind, Pressure Building Up

Oil is coming under serious headwinds this week, heading for its steepest weekly drop in over three months, following four straight days of decline.

A few key drivers could in play behind the decline:

· OPEC+ Supply Concerns: Reports suggest OPEC+ is considering boosting output by as much as 500,000 barrels per day in November, triple the planned increase for October. This has heightened fears of oversupply.

· Rising U.S. Inventories: A buildup in U.S. stockpiles is adding to downside pressure, reinforcing signs of weaker near-term demand.

· Soft Demand Trends: Broader concerns over slowing global demand growth are also weighing on sentiment, with risk assets generally underperforming this week.

Crude oil has been consolidating in recent sessions, but mounting supply and demand pressures suggest that a decisive breakout may be nearing. Traders will be watching closely whether prices can defend recent support levels or whether another leg lower unfolds.

USOIL, Daily Chart

For WTI, the $66–$62 zone has acted as a major support since the post-COVID rally four years ago. Price is now testing this band again, and a sustained break below could mark the start of a new bearish phase.

UKOIL, Daily Chart

Brent is showing a similar setup, with consolidation threatening to give way. If prices hold below the current key zone, it could confirm a downside move and open the way for another leg lower.

Bottom Line

As we head into the final trading day of the week, with the NFP report likely off the table, markets are left in recalibration mode. The U.S. shutdown has disrupted the flow of key data, leaving traders cautious and reluctant to commit to new trends.

In the near term, this uncertainty may encourage positioning reversals and choppy price action, rather than sustained moves. Until clarity emerges on both the fiscal situation in Washington and the timing of delayed data releases, expect sentiment to remain fragile and volatility to stay elevated.