MHMarkets:Fed’s expects U.S. economic growth to slow, U.S. bans imports of Russian gold

The 2024 FOMC vote committee, San Francisco Fed President Daly said in his speech that the labor market is currently very strong, which puts the United States in a better position to achieve a soft landing. Growth in the U.S. is expected to slow, perhaps below 2%, but not negative. FOMC permanent vote committee, New York Fed President Williams said that recession is not his basic expectation. The U.S. long-term neutral rate has not changed and remains low. That's one reason the Fed will need to raise rates significantly this year and next. A fed funds rate of 3.5%-4% is reasonable, but whether the next meeting will raise rates by 50 basis points or 75 basis points is still up for debate. He also said that interest rates will definitely need to be raised to 3%-3.5% this year.

The U.S. Treasury Department announced on its website on Tuesday that the U.S. issued a new round of sanctions related to Russia, including a ban on imports of Russian gold, targeting Russian state-owned defense group Rostec and a number of banks including Bank of Moscow. The G7state after the press conference reiterated its firm support for Ukraine. On the oil issue, it said it would consider a total ban on all services capable of transporting Russian oil by sea unless the oil purchase price is lower than the price agreed with its partners. U.S. officials said the U.S. would discuss a cap on Russian oil prices with oil consumers in Africa and Latin America. 

Technical：

Dow:On Tuesday, U.S. stock index futures rose slightly. The three major stock indexes opened higher and moved lower. The Dow closed down 1.56% and the Nasdaq closed down 2.98%, but concerns about inflation and the Fed's aggressive tightening policy continued to dominate the market. The Dow finished higher and fell, with the lower focus on the support position 30638, and the upper focus on the position near the support pressure position 31900.

USD: The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell slightly in the U.S. session, but remained at a high of 3.173%. The U.S. dollar index rose sharply during the U.S. session and returned to the top of the 104 mark, closing up 0.539% at 104.52 points; the dollar bulls were cautious and focused on the target position of 103 below.

Gold: On Tuesday, spot gold lost all previous gains after failing to challenge the $1830 mark in the US market session, and turned from up to down, and finally closed down 0.16% at $1819.86 per ounce; the status of gold fluctuated, chasing shorts cautiously, and concerned about the day 1830 pressure level, if it breaks through 1830, then pay attention to the second target position of 1840.

Crude oil:In terms of crude oil, the two crude oils continued their gains. WTI crude oil returned to above the $110 mark and finally closed up 1.45% at $113.73 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed up 2.24% at $117.28 per barrel. Crude oil prices fluctuated repeatedly near the 110 pressure level above, and the bottom focused on the target position near 100.

(The above analysis only represents the analyst's point of view, the foreign exchange market is risky, and investment should be cautious)